The winner of Sunday’s presidential election in Brazil, in which Luis Inácio Lula da Silva appears as the favorite, will have to deal with a Little renewed, very fragmented congress and with a majority of legislators linked to conservative and center-right parties.
According to various projections released this Saturday, the percentage of new faces in the Chamber of Deputies who will be elected on Sunday will be limited to 34%well below that recorded in 2018 (47%) and the lowest level in the last 22 years.
The Ideia Institute projection indicates that 66% of the current 513 deputies will be re-elected on Sunday.
The calculations are similar to those of the Inter-Union Parliamentary Council (DIAP) which predicts that, with the re-election of about 300 deputies – among the 445 in search of new mandates – the renewal level will be 40%.
In previous elections, the number of candidates for re-election was lower: 407 in 2018 and 387 in 2014.
The renewal will be even less in the Senate because on Sunday they will only be renewed elected 27 of the 81 senatorsa third of the total, and some of the current players, such as the former footballer Romario, are eligible for re-election according to the polls.
The limited renewal will keep Congress on current conservative majoritywith dominant center-right and center-right parties, and under the control of parliamentarians linked to the agricultural sector and religious groups and the security area.
The change in legislation that explains the small renewal
According to DIAP analysts consulted by EFE, the low renewal rate will be the result of changes to electoral legislation, which they have reduced the time of the electoral campaign and also the period in which candidates can appear in the free schedule of radio and television advertising.
These rules, as well as the interest of parties to concentrate their resources on the best candidates and the prohibition of private financing of election campaigns, increase the exposure of parliamentarians in office and hide those who want to emerge.
Projections by both bodies on possible winners indicate that the the center-right and right-wing parties will once again have the majority while those of the center-left and left will increase their presence but will continue to be a minority.
They also indicate that the Congress will be totally fragmented, with representatives from 20 to 22 different parties, the largest of which will not reach 90 deputies (17.5% of the total).
According to projections, the The most numerous formation will be the Partido Libera on the rightl (PL), who appointed President Jair Bolsonaro for re-election, with a number between 75 and 90 deputies, compared to the current 76.
The second minority will be constituted by the Workers’ Party (PT), founded and led by Lula, with between 60 and 65 deputies, compared to the current 56.
Five center-right and center-right parties will be identified immediately, which are the ones who currently dominates in Parliament: Progressives (PP, between 53 and 59 legislators), Union Brazil (between 50 and 54), Social Democratic Party (PSD, between 49 and 54), Republicans (linked to evangelical groups, between 38 and 42) and Movimiento Brazilian Democratico (MDB, between 36 and 40).
According to projections by the Quaest study, conservative parties will continue to occupy half of the 513 seats in the House, those on the right will shrink slightly (from 253 to 245) and those on the left will grow (from 121 to 129).
The parties close to the coalition led by Lula, favored on Sunday with 50% of the valid votes in the polls, must Increase the number of repetitions from 222 to 234including those of some centrist formations that supported previous PT governments, such as the MDB.
Those who are in the orbit of Bolsonaro will lose some seats194 to 181, according to Quaest projections.
In other words, whoever wins, Lula or Bolsonaro, will again be hostage in the Legislature of the center parties, which have already supported one or the other depending on what they receive in return.
By Carlos Moreno – EFE Agency
Source: Clarin
