“Truth is on our side and real is power!” Russian President Vladimir Putin took to the microphone at Moscow’s Red Square last week, after a ceremony in which he declared the four major parts of Ukraine’s territory now part of Russia. yell.
“The victory will be ours!”
In the real world, however, the situation looks quite different.
Ukrainian forces were advancing into areas they had just captured while Putin was signing illegal annexation agreements in the Kremlin.
Hundreds of thousands of men are fleeing Russia to avoid conscription to fight in a still-expanding war.
And things are going so badly on the battlefield that Putin and his supporters are reshaping what they once claimed to be the “minimization” of Ukraine and the protection of the Russian-speaking as an existential struggle against the entire “collective” West.
This is the truth – and none of it is in Russia’s favor.
Victim of the system itself
“He’s in a blind area. He doesn’t seem to really understand what’s going on,” says Riddle Russia editor Anton Barbashin of the Russian president.
Like many, political analysts believe that Putin was completely unprepared for Ukraine’s strong resistance to the occupation, along with strong Western support for Kiev.
Turning 70 this Friday (07/10), after more than 20 years in power, the Russian leader seems to have fallen victim to his own system. Your autocratic style blocks your access to concrete intelligence.
“You can’t question his opinions,” explains Tatyana Stanovaya, head of the analytical firm R.Politik.
“Everyone who works with Putin knows his view of the world and Ukraine, knows his expectations. They can’t give him information that contradicts his own view. That’s how it works.”
The President’s final speech under the gilded chandeliers of the Kremlin reaffirmed his vision for a new world order.
It involves a powerful Russia, an intimidating Western world forced to learn to respect it, and subjugating Kiev to Moscow once again.
To achieve this, Ukraine is Putin’s chosen battleground.
Although his ambitions seem largely illusory, he does not seem willing to back down.
“Many of the key calculations the Kremlin was working on didn’t work out, and it looks like Putin has no plan B other than to keep pushing people to the front lines and hoping the numbers will stop Ukraine from advancing any further.” Anton Barbashin reviews.
reluctant hires
“Bringing people to the fore” is an important change in itself.
Putin continues to call his invasion a “special military operation” – presenting it as limited in scope and short-lived.
Many Russians were able to accept – even support it – as long as it did not directly affect them. But the call of reservists turned something remote and intangible into an up-close and personal risk.
Regional politicians crush each other in a Soviet-style race to fill their quota by recruiting as many men as possible.
“This is a decisive moment. For most Russians, the war started a few weeks ago,” says Anton Barbashin.
“In the first months, the people who died were mostly from peripheral areas and smaller centres. But mobilization (by reserves) will change that as coffins will be returned to Moscow and St. Petersburg.”
‘Just horrible’ conditions
The call resulted in lengthy social media exchanges from the wives and mothers of the new soldiers – those who did not flee to the borders when mobilization was announced.
Some posts—and the men’s own videos—reveal dire conditions: inadequate food, obsolete weapons, and a lack of basic medical supplies. The women discuss sending sanitary pads to fill men’s boots and tampons to cover their wounds.
Russia’s Kursk regional governor has described conditions in various military units as “absolutely terrible”, even without uniforms.
Such revelations bore holes in one of Putin’s proudest claims: that he had made the Russian military a professional fighting force that patriotic citizens would want to serve.
But for now, most seem focused on supporting female recruits.
“We are at a stage where a significant part of Russian society still believes that ‘Russia is a great power fighting NATO in Ukraine’ and that sending socks and toothbrushes to conscripts is a sign of patriotism,” Anton Barbashin said.
Censorship collapses
But the confusion created by the draft and Russia’s military embarrassment are causing more important figures to raise their voices.
When liberals denounced the invasion of Ukraine, they were arrested and many are still behind bars.
It is illegal to even call this operation war.
The word “war” is now commonplace in pro-Kremlin circles, as is harsh criticism of Russia’s military command.
Deputy Andrei Kartapolov was the latest to call this week for the Ministry of Defense to “stop lying” about Russia’s difficulties, because “our people are far from stupid”.
Image: Getty Images
Margarita Simonyan, editor of the RT television channel, described Joseph Stalin’s practice of executing “cowardly” and “incompetent” generals.
But the occupation itself is not publicly questioned, let alone Vladimir Putin.
Margarita Simonyan refers to him as “The Boss”.
“There is no anti-war political movement,” emphasizes Tatyana Stanovaya, especially in a politically repressive environment. Even those who are against mobilization prefer to flee. Some are trying to leave the country, others are hiding. But we don’t see any attempts to create political resistance.”
He says that could change if Russia continues to lose and consume more soldiers.
“Putin needs to win some victories.”
‘Holy’ War with the West
Even the president hinted that he was in trouble this week and described the situation in the annexed areas as “problematic”.
But there is tremendous pressure to blame the “collective” West, which supports Ukraine, for blaming Russia’s setbacks.
State media presenters are now describing Ukraine’s land usurpation as something much bigger, apparently pushing the nation into a broader struggle.
“This is our full fight against Satanism,” TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov told his audience this week. Solovyov is a staunch supporter of Putin.
“This is not about Ukraine. The West’s purpose is clear. Regime change and the disintegration of Russia so that Russia no longer exists,” he shouted.
That’s the “truth” Putin believes in – and that’s why this objective moment of weakness for Russia is also a moment of risk.
“This war is existential for Russia, and therefore victory should be possible for Putin,” says Tatyana Stanovaya, analyst of R.
And “they have nuclear bombs,” he recalls.
“I think at some level in the nuclear escalation he hopes the West will move away from Ukraine.”
He’s not the only one to note Putin’s more radical, almost messianic tone.
“Apparently this is what he really believes in: This is the Russian Empire’s last war, an all-out war with the West,” says Anton Barbashin of Riddle Russia. “Whether Russia succeeds or not, we are at the finish line.”
Of course, this is also Vladimir Putin’s “truth” that the West needs more than ever to believe.
Image: BBC
– This text was published at http://bbc.co.uk/portuguese/internacional-63162237.
source: Noticias
