London – Long before US President Joe Biden scared the world off last Thursday by claiming that the Russian nuclear threat was putting the planet at risk of apocalypse, scientists have already warned of the risk, as each year on the Doomsday Clock mark the time left for humanity’s destruction. .
When the Doomsday Clock panel announced in January that there were 100 minutes to midnight, the war had not yet begun, but scientists had “Deployment of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border is a potential flashpoint escalating tensions.”
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Shortly after the invasion, scientists issued a note reiterating the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the region. They classified the moment as “dangerous, fluid and unstable”, using the metaphor of the clock, which makes it more understandable for the public to understand threats.
Nuclear war led to the creation of the Doomsday Clock
[1945yılındaAlbertEinsteinveChicagoÜniversitesibilimadamlarıtarafındandüzenlendiManhattan Projesi’nde ilk atom silahlarının geliştirilmesine yardım eden, Atom Bilimcileri Bülteni(Nükleer Bilim Adamları Bülteni) iki yıl sonra kıyamet (gece yarısı) görüntülerini ve nükleer patlamanın (sıfıra kadar geri sayım) çağdaş deyimini kullanarak insanlığa ve gezegene yönelik tehditleri sembolize ederek Kıyamet Saati’ni kurdu.
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Kıyamet Saati’nin zamanı, her yıl 11 Nobel Ödülü sahibini içeren bir uzman grup olan Bilim ve Güvenlik Konseyi tarafından belirlenir.
Kıyamet Saati, bir pop kültürü armatürü ve dünyanın iklim değişikliğine, yıkıcı teknolojilere ve yazarların “nükleer silah felaketi” dediği şeye karşı savunmasızlığının evrensel olarak tanınan bir göstergesi haline geldi.
Bu risk, Joe Biden’ın açıklaması ve Rusya ile Kırım arasındaki köprünün yıkılmasının ardından, Vladimir Putin’in nükleer silahlarla tepki vereceğine dair korkuları artırarak, dünyayı rahatsız etmeye başladı.
Bilim adamlarının riskler hakkında söylediklerini görün.
Trendlere göre en yakın kıyamet
İşgalin daha somut işaretleri görünmeden önce yayınlanan bu yılki Bülten, 2020’de Donald Trump’ın ayrılmasıyla ABD komutasındaki değişikliğin, felakete doğru küresel bir yarış gibi görünen şeyin durdurulabileceği ve hatta tersine çevrilebileceği konusunda umut verdiğini söyledi:
“Aslında 2021’de yeni ABD yönetimi dünyayı daha güvenli hale getiren bazı politikaları değiştirdi: yeni START silah kontrol anlaşmasının uzatılmasını kabul etti, Rusya ile stratejik istikrar müzakerelerine başladı; İran nükleer anlaşmasına geri dönme girişimini duyurdu; ve Paris iklim anlaşmasına yeniden katıldı.
[…] A more moderate and predictable approach to the leadership and control of one of the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals was a welcome change from the previous four years.”
However, the Doomsday Clock panel decided that this was not enough to offset “negative international security trends that are slow to evolve and continue across the threat horizon into 2021”.
And Russia was part of the script.
US relations with Russia and China remain strained, with the three countries engaged in a series of nuclear modernization and expansion efforts – including China’s apparent large-scale program to increase the deployment of long-range nuclear missiles based on silos; Pressure from Russia, China and the USA to develop hypersonic missiles; and continued testing of anti-satellite weapons by many countries.
If these movements are not brought under control, the world could enter a “new and dangerous nuclear arms race,” as many now fear, the scientists said.
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The ‘nuclear string’ of the Doomsday Clock
The 2022 Bulletin section describing the atomic hazards is called the “nuclear string”.
For scientists, some nuclear risks have decreased over the course of 2021, while others have increased. “Upcoming nuclear policy decisions could bring healthy or dangerous changes to an already uncertain and worrying security situation,” they wrote.
One of the positive points highlighted was an agreement signed between the US and Vladimir Putin’s Russia in February last year to renew the New START program.
“This extension creates a window of opportunity for negotiating a future arms control agreement between the two countries that have 90% of the planet’s nuclear weapons.
The United States and Russia also agreed to open two groups of dialogue on how to best maintain “nuclear stability” in the future: the Principles and Objectives Working Group for Future Arms Control and the Strategic Impact Capabilities and Actions Working Group.
These groups came together [em 2021] and by early 2022, it should report the first results of consultations with a view to shaping future arms control agreements.”
The prediction made in January did not come true as the possibility of a nuclear strike in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was seriously considered.
In the analysis of scientists, besides China, Russia was highlighted for tests with anti-satellite weapons:
“The Chinese start to build new large-scale ICBM silos raises concerns that China may consider a change to its nuclear doctrine.
The recent testing of anti-satellite weapons by China and Russia has raised concerns about the rapid escalation of any conventional conflict with the United States.
The hypersonic missile launch efforts of the three countries are starting to bear fruit, intensifying the competition. While there is no consensus on both the causes and consequences of these programs, it clearly marks the beginning of a new arms competition.”
Nuclear risks related to North Korea were also noted by scientists.
“Despite the absence of any talks between North Korea and the United States in 2021, the North Koreans did not resume tests of nuclear weapons or long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), but short-range missile tests continued.”
The bulletin says there is evidence that the North Koreans continue to test nuclear-capable short- and medium-range missiles, including cruisers, ballistic vehicles and gliders, and are restarting plutonium production.
The report states that India and Pakistan continue to develop their nuclear, missile and other military capabilities “without reducing potential flashpoints that could lead to nuclear conflict.”
The “Frightening” Possibility of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East
In the report, which serves to determine the doomsday clock in 2022, Iran is listed as the “minus” of the year.
Iran continues to build up a stockpile of enriched uranium, insisting that all sanctions be lifted before returning to negotiations with the United States.
The window of opportunity seems to be closing. Over time, Iran’s neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia, may feel compelled to acquire similar capabilities, heralding the frightening possibility of a multi-nation Middle East with the experience and materials to build nuclear weapons.”
The Joe Biden administration has been lauded for explaining that a specific goal of the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) process will be to “reduce the role of nuclear weapons” in US national security policy.
“As the January 6, 2021 uprising at the US Capitol demonstrated, no country is immune from threats to its democracy, and in a state that has nuclear weapons and material that could be used in nuclear weapons, both can be targets for terrorists and fanatics.
The invaders came close to capturing Vice President Mike Pence and the “nuclear commando” accompanying the Vice President as a backup system to authorize nuclear launches.”
Scientists at the Doomsday Clock said in January that they expect reducing the role of nuclear weapons in US deterrence and defense policies will make the world safer by positively impacting other countries’ nuclear weapons stances.
But still, the predictions were not optimistic, leading the Doomsday Clock to continue past 100 seconds to midnight, this is the closest point ever to “the end of civilizational apocalypse, because the world is stuck in an extremely dangerous moment”:
“We called it the new abnormal in 2019 and unfortunately it continued.”
On March 27, Rachel Bronson, chairman of the board, signed a manifesto on behalf of scientists condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine:
“We reiterate the unstable situation in Ukraine.
We have also repeatedly reported the dangers of unintentional escalation, as military postures and investments, along with political statements, increase the likelihood of using nuclear weapons.
That’s exactly 100 seconds before the midnight broadcasts. Dangerous, fluid and unstable.”
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