Why Is North Korea Raising Tensions With Its Neighbors?

Analysts believe Kim Jong-un is preparing for something bigger, like a nuclear test aimed at gaining concessions from South Korea, Japan and the United States.

This Thursday morning (03/11) was tense and confusing for the people of northern Japan.

At 7:50 am local time, anti-aircraft alerts were issued in Miyagi and Yamagata Prefectures. Television programs were interrupted to encourage people to seek shelter.

The Japanese coast guard reported that a missile fired from North Korea was heading towards Japan. North Korean missiles have passed the country before – one of them last month – but never this far south.

However, the missile launched this morning did not enter Japanese airspace. According to South Korean military sources, the flight failed and crashed into the sea.

Did the Japanese calm down and return to their breakfast in peace? Answer is no.

First of all, it is not normal behavior to launch ballistic missiles at neighboring countries without warning, letting them guess where they will land.

This is an extremely provocative and dangerous act that is completely outside of international norms.

Launching missiles is a threat to aviation and shipping. If the bullet misses, debris can fall on the population.

Second, the episode comes a day after North Korea launched a record number of missiles at sea off the coast of South Korea.

Moreover, this action took place a few days before the critical midterm elections in the United States.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hopes that the display of his military can focus attention on the US capital.

What is Kim Jong-un doing?

North Korea is deliberately escalating tensions with its neighboring countries.

Analysts think Kim Jong-un is preparing for something bigger, like a nuclear test in the Pacific Ocean or a long-range ballistic missile test or both.

All this noise has a political purpose.

It’s a pattern the country’s capital Pyongyang used in 2010 and again in 2017.

The idea is to raise tensions to a serious level and then ask for concessions and concessions from South Korea, Japan and the United States.

Pyongyang is almost certainly doing that right now.

However, Kim Jong-un has a second target. North Korea is still far from perfecting its missile technology.

After launching one of them into space, the warhead detaches in a “re-entry vehicle” and returns to Earth. This must be able to withstand the enormous heat and pressure produced by submerging into the atmosphere.

In previous tests, North Korea’s reentry vehicles appear to have failed. Therefore, Kim Jong-un needs to continue testing his technology to perfect it.

Thursday’s missile appears to have flown in a so-called “elevation trajectory”, ascending about 2,000 km into space and then suddenly descending.

The goal could be a long-range bullet test without flying over Japan. If today’s test was another failure, the action only shows how much room Pyongyang has to improve the technology.

But the ultimate goal is not just to threaten South Korea and Japan. North Korea can already do that.

It’s about threatening the United States with a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile called ICBMs. Today’s test will definitely shock anyone who hears the siren.

If North Korea’s intention was to scare Japan, the effect could be the opposite.

Pyongyang’s tests, along with China’s latest threats to Taiwan, are having a profound effect on Japanese politics.

For decades, the Japanese right has been calling for the post-war pacifist constitution to be repealed and for the country to invest in weapons.

Until now, most ordinary Japanese do not want to take this step.

But that is changing, and security guards now have every reason to move forward. In December, the Japanese government will propose doubling its defense budget and purchasing long-range offensive weapons over the next decade.

Reports indicate that Japan is in talks to purchase hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. This means that for the first time since WWII, Japan will have the ability to attack targets inside China and North Korea.

– This text was published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-63506146.