Missile in Poland: the night Europe held its breath and feared the worst

Late afternoon on a Tuesday with no further story. As the leaders of the world’s major powers met in Bali for the G20 summit, an explosion rocked a rural area in eastern Poland a few tens of kilometers from the border with Ukraine.

The Polish government has convened its national security council and placed its armed forces on high alert. What happened, why then the worst was fearedit was not only unprecedented since the beginning of the war, but also it hadn’t happened since WWIInor in the worst moments of the Cold War.

The reactions came from Bali at that G20 to NATO headquarters in Brussels. whatRussia had attacked for the first time in a NATO member country?

If this information is confirmed, the war in Ukraine it has taken a much more dangerous turn. But the reactions were very measured and hardly anyone spoke of the attack to the point that Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo limited it to an “accident”. Poland has only confirmed two dead.

Information on the attack was added in a few minutes by another which has distorted the usual scenario of this war. For the first time since the outbreak of the conflict, Ukraine has announced that it has turned off the tap on the pipeline linking Russia and Hungary.

He claimed that the pressure that came was insufficient. Moscow denied the problem, but eventually oil stopped reaching Hungarian terminals. Hungary is the European country that has pulled the most in every decision against Russia since the beginning of the aggression in Ukraine, from sanctions to embargoes.

In bed with a nightmare

The explosion happened shortly before of the schedule of most television news in Europe, therefore half the continent has gone to sleep thinking that perhaps Russia had attacked Poland and that the war was advancing towards the center of the continent and it fully involved NATO.

Moscow denied it and from Bali its Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the Poles of orchestrating a “provocation”.

Hours later, especially after the first information from US intelligence, the tension began to subside. President Joe Biden told a European dawn that it seemed “unlikely” that anything that dropped in Poland had been fired on by Russia.

Meanwhile, NATO was preparing a meeting of its ambassadors with forced marches. Poland does not seem to have any intention of asking for activation (a political decision is needed) of Article 5 of the Atlantic Treaty North, which obliges all member states to use all available means (including military) to defend the “attacked” country.

The Poles seemed ready early in the morning activate item 4. It is a minor step that merely requires consultations with allies when a member state feels its security is threatened.

attack or accident

But Poland was threatened, he had been attacked or was it an accident? In the early European morning hours, what had really happened began to become known. A Ukrainian anti-aircraft rocket, fired at a Russian missile, he had gotten lost and landed on Polish territory. Misfortune landed him on a populated area.

NATO sources told the European noon that both they and the diplomatic services of the European Union they had warned for months that such an incident was a real risk because Russia was attacking Ukrainian military and civilian targets a few tens of kilometers from the borders of Moldova or Poland.

War at the gates

What happened Tuesday night was an explosion and save the two dead and material damage it won’t get oldbut it reminds Poland and other neighboring countries of Ukraine and Russia war is at your door.

NATO had to come out with a reminiscent statement solidarity between its member states and their means of deterrence to avoid being attacked, but without further delay to avoid an escalation which would have been due to an accident.

The Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg, it still meant Moscow assuring that the explosion in Poland is to blame not Ukraine (it was the rocket) but Russia for launching massive air strikes against Ukrainian territory bordering Poland.

Without those Russian missile launches there would have been no Ukrainian anti-aircraft response and no explosions in Poland.

“There is no indication that it was intentional,” Stoltenberg said. He added that “our analysis suggests that it was a Ukrainian missile that defended itself, but let me be clear, it’s not Ukraine’s fault. Russia is ultimately responsible.”

NATO “is ready”

Stoltenberg also said that “there are no indications that Russia is planning an attack on NATO” and so on the Atlantic Alliance “is prepared for situations like this“, like those experienced last night, “because we prepare for the moments when these incidents occur.”

And he left a lesson for those in a hurry on Tuesday: “To handle this type of incident, it’s about being firm and reacting quickly, but also about keep calm and avoid unnecessary escalations”.

Stoltenberg’s message could be addressed to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dimitro Kuleba. On Tuesday evening he accused Russia of “promoting conspiracy theory that it was a Ukrainian air defense missile that fell in Poland, which is not true.” Kuleba had fired up on Twitter before it really became known what happened in Poland.

As explained by the Polish Embassy to the European Union a clarionits ambassador Andrzej Sados said on Wednesday morning that it is especially necessary right now “keep calm and a cool head”.

Sados explained to his ambassadorial counterparts that the explosion was caused “by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and by the massive missile launch that took place yesterday” (by Tuesday).

The ambassador also explained the need not to fall Russian disinformation tactics and to provide verified information.

Brussels, special

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