Fernanda Magnotta Lula’s government will be friendly with the US, but setbacks in sight 03/12/2022 14h34

Since the announcement of the election results in Brazil, we have been following the US government’s keenness to continue the dialogue with the elected president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). Joe Biden was one of the first foreign leaders to recognize Lula’s victory on October 30, and delivered a speech just under 40 minutes after the countdown. In a phone call the next day, Biden personally congratulated the Brazilian and praised the strength of the country’s democratic institutions.

Days later, in early November, Lula met with John Kerry, the United States’ climate special envoy at COP 27. Meanwhile, movements in Brasília indicate that the US government should send a large delegation for the inauguration ceremony. Vice President Kamala Harris and/or Foreign Secretary Antony Blinken.

The latest news, confirmed by the White House, is that some of the first tier of the Biden administration, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan and other State Department officials, are expected to meet with Lula and his transition team appointees in the coming days. Members of the current Brazilian government are added this Monday. According to the official memo, the main themes of the meeting will be: climate change, food security, promotion of inclusion and democracy, as well as regional migration. There are expectations that Lula and Biden will also meet in the near future, but there is no firm date yet.

It is important to clarify that the political and economic relations between the two countries are deep and wide. We’re talking about the two largest democracies in the Western Hemisphere. Brazil is the twelfth largest economy in the world and the United States is Brazil’s second largest trading partner. Economic pragmatism, above all, suits both countries, and pro-business interests tend to push for stability and predictability, regardless of the group holding power.

There is also ample room for strategic dialogue, particularly on economic growth, environmental protection, and defense and security cooperation. Brazil and the US have room to expand their commercial partnerships and increase bilateral investments. They can also set up high-level mechanisms to deal with environmental protection and lay out a plan for the establishment of infrastructure networks that support green and low-carbon economy in both countries. In the defense field, in addition to investments to strengthen conventional cooperation, it is also possible to find ways to benefit from technology transfer and increase scientific cooperation.

Therefore, changes can be expected not only in the political and bureaucratic fields, but also in presidential diplomacy in the coming months, because we are talking about two leaders who know each other well and are willing to do so.

Despite the expected friendly relations with the United States, as even with past Lula governments, it is necessary to have some delicate agendas with possible tensions on the horizon. Among the main ones:

1. those involving BRICS partners, particularly China and Russia (including the stance on the War in Ukraine);
2. the OECD accession process and issues related to trade protectionism;
3. Against relations with Venezuela and regional arrangements in South America.

Also, different positions may arise where Brazil takes action to expand its autonomy internationally and to broaden its voice in the face of cases it sees as symbolic. This tends to be covert, especially if the country approaches players who triangulate their interests with the United States. Washington will remain vigilant for actions by which Brazil’s representatives show solidarity or support through acts or omissions to those viewed as hostile.

In fact, we’ve just had a clear example of this kind of situation: Lula met with WikiLeaks leaders this week and defended the freedom of Julian Assange, whose arrest he described as unfair. The US government accuses Assange of espionage and could face more than 175 years in prison if found guilty by US justice.

In global politics, anyone who predicts the future of relations between countries based solely on personal affinities or short-term interests is mistaken. In particular, the bilateral dialogue between Brazil and the USA is multifaceted and full of dimensions. Flight has the necessary conditions for it to be peaceful, but it would be prudent to bet on certain feelings in the future.