What does Europe have to offer Russia to end the war in Ukraine?

The governments of the European Union, with the exception of the Hungarian one, are in no doubt what they should do in the short term regarding the Russian war in Ukraine: financial and material support to kyivfinancing of its public accounts in order not to go into default and the supply of ever more modern and powerful weapons.

All supported by a long list of sanctions that are starting to weigh on the Russian economy.

If there is no doubt in the short term, the divisions over how far such support should go and whether Ukraine should be pushed to sit down and negotiate. The line that emerges victorious from these divisions and debates will mark European policy towards Kyiv starting next year. The situation in Ukraine seems to justify those who ask for a strong hand.

After the first failed attacks to occupy Kiev and the occupation of Donbass regions, there were massacres in small towns near Kiev and Kharkiv.

Now Moscow seems to be betting on a civilian infrastructure destruction strategy, mainly energy, to try to bring Volodimir Zelenski’s government to its knees. International conventions require such attacks to be war crimes.

The Kiev government maintains the hard line despite the bombing. Oleksi Danilov, secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, rhetorically wondered on Tuesday who wanted to “give security guarantees to a terrorist and murderous state”.

Missiles launched randomly on cities, without military targets and with long-range missiles, continue to be “terrorist attacks” that seek to terrorize the population rather than harm the Ukrainian Armed Forces, European diplomatic sources believe.

hard line

The governments of central Europe, those of the countries geographically closest to Russia, follow the most intransigent line and are closest to the Ukrainian government. They consider it there is nothing to negotiate with Putin until Russia leaves all occupied territories in Ukraine (also the Crimean peninsula, which it annexed in 2014), it pays war reparations and tries war criminals.

Other capitals, all on the Western European side, such as Berlin, Rome or Madrid, believe it is a stance excessively hard.

They believe that they should always support Ukraine and that Kiev will decide whenever it wants what to negotiate and what not. But they understand that, in the current state of the war, seeking the prosecution of President Vladimir Putin in an international war crimes tribunal is unrealistic and that Ukraine will have to give something if it doesn’t want a war that will last for years.

The only different line is maintained for now from Paris. So different from the European consensus and the official position of the European Union that it’s starting to get annoying. Last weekend, the French president released a diplomatic stone.

In a television interview, he said that after the war “security guarantees to Russia” should be given. Macron asked: “Are we ready to give Russia guarantees of its own security the day it goes to a negotiating table?” And he added: “One of the essential points is (Russia’s) fear of seeing NATO arriving at its doors, the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia”.

Criticism of Macron took very little time. Oleksi Danilov, secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, wondered on Twitter who might want to “provide security guarantees to a terrorist and murderous state”.

Macron’s statements also fell flat in Brussels because they seem to understand the justifications that the Russian president has given for launching the war.

Official European policy states that any country on the continent is free to decide for itself whether or not to join organizations such as the European Union or NATO, and that it is not up to Moscow to approve or veto such a decision. Macron had already clashed with European diplomacy last May when he said that Putin should not be “humiliated”.

In Brussels, the European ‘chancellor’, the Spanish-Argentine Josep Borrell, wanted to put priorities in order. Borrell believes that the first thing is “to give security guarantees to Ukraine. We will talk about Russia.”

Brussels, special

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