North Korea wants dollars and that’s a sign of trouble

SEOUL, South Korea — When Kim Jong UnNorth Korea’s leader, who came to power more than a decade ago, made the same two promises his family has made since he founded the country in 1948:

strengthen the army and improve the economy.

On the military front, Kim, 38, has outclassed his father and grandfather, who ruled before him, accelerating the country’s war agenda. nuclear and missile development.

On the economic front, it struggled because North Korea was an isolated country, worsened after years of international sanctions in response to its nuclear program; then the closure of the borders took place after the pandemic coronavirus.

Now that its trade with the outside world has been devastated, North Korea is struggling to hoard US dollars and other hard currencies, not only to feed its people but also to finance Kim’s military and economic ambitions.

Also, smuggling coal and stealing cryptocurrencies.

It is also trying to squeeze all the money out of the public, by selling smartphones and other imported goods to the wealthy class, as well as collecting donations from “loyalty” in exchange for political favors.

State warehouses are a fundamental element.

Customers can use US dollars to pay for international brands of instant noodles, deodorant, diapers and shampoo, with the rest being returned in won, the country’s official currency.

Such transactions and other illicit activities have allowed Kim to keep the flow of dollars Americans into his coffers, giving him the means to expand the country’s arsenal and capabilities, including testing a new ICBM this month.

North Korea is now firing missiles at an accelerating rate, sometimes on a daily basis. Washington, Seoul and Tokyo have warned that Kim could soon carry out a nuclear test, the first since 2017.

rise to power

On April 15, 2012, Kim gathered a large crowd in Pyongyang to deliver his first public speech as leader of North Korea.

He said he would lead the country through any obstacles or challenges to prosperity, but clarified his first priority would be “strengthening the People’s Army in every way”.

While pursuing his dual goals, he has used a mix of propaganda and terror, purging or executing anyone who gets in his way, while portraying himself in state media as a “people-loving” leader.

He made the government relatively less opaque, making frequent speeches and making decisions through large party meetings.

Kim even apologized for his shortcomings, putting aside the myth of a leader divine and flawless.

But Kim also knew that real progress for his country could only be achieved through negotiations with the United States, which has led the push for international sanctions.

when he met Donald Trump in 2018, he became the first North Korean leader to hold a summit with an American president.

An expanding arsenal

Although North Korea has spent decades developing its weapons, Kim can take credit for most of the advances in this area.

During his rule, the country became the first US adversary since the Cold War to test an ICBM and what he said was a hydrogen bomb.

Four of the country’s six underground nuclear tests occurred under his rule.

In 2017, North Korea successfully conducted its first test firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-15, which Kim said was capable of hitting the United States with a large nuclear warhead. .

Since his diplomacy with Trump collapsed, he has focused on making his arsenal more diverse and sophisticated, unveiling and then testing a range of new weapons, from a next-generation ICBM, the Hwasong-17, to missiles short-range with nuclear capability.

In January 2021, at a party convention, Kim ordered his government to build “super-large nuclear warheads” and make “smaller, lighter, more tactical nuclear weapons.”

Kim asked for them to develop hypersonic missiles, intercontinental ballistic missiles which can be launched from submarines, nuclear-powered submarines and spy satellites.

In April, it promised to expand its nuclear forces “as fast as possible”.

Although some recent ICBM tests have failed, North Korea is believed to have enough plutonium and enriched uranium to produce From 45 to 55 nuclear weapons and it may have already assembled 20 to 30 warheads, according to an estimate by the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project.

Kim appears to have come to the conclusion that delivering on his promise of military might is his best hope for economic gain, trading some of his arsenal for sanctions relief.

The recent wave of missile tests, analysts say, was part of its attempt to flaunt its growing threat and bring Washington back to negotiating table.

the way of money

To fulfill her promises, Kim urgently needs money.

In September, he told parliament that the government’s most important task was to solve the problem of people’s living standards.

Missile tests have cost North Korea hundreds of millions of dollars this year, according to estimates by South Korean and US researchers.

You don’t have many options anymore.

The country’s combined trade deficit (the gap between the goods and services it imports and the amount it exports) amounted to about $8.3 billion between 2017 and 2021.

Even accounting for coal smuggling, the sale of fishing rights, theft of cryptocurrencies and other illicit activities, the trade deficit could still amount to at least $1.9 billionaccording to researchers at the Institute for National Security Strategy, a think tank linked to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service.

To attract spendthrifts with foreign currency savings, department stores are full of imported productsincluding Rolex and Tissot wristwatches, Sony and Canon digital cameras, as well as Dior and Lancôme cosmetics, all luxury items banned under UN sanctions.

Selling cell phones and airtime also became a lucrative business for the Kim regime.

More than 1 in 5 North Koreans are believed to have them mobile phones.

A variety of cellphones, assembled in North Korea with components imported from China, are on sale and promoted on state television.

They come with pre-installed dictionaries and state propaganda, but they also offer traffic-navigating apps and games, including unofficial versions of Super Mario and Angry Birds, and even an app that promises repel mosquitoes with sound.

c.2022 The New York Times Society