Western tanks head to Ukraine, breaking another taboo

Western authorities, who increasingly fear that Ukraine has only a narrow margin to prepare to push back foreseeable Russian offensive in the spring they are moving quickly to supply the Ukrainians with sophisticated weapons they had previously refused to send for fear of provoking Moscow.

In recent weeks, one obstacle after another has fallen, starting with the US agreement in late December to send an anti-aircraft defense system Patriot.

So, Germany pledged last week to supply a battery of Patriot missiles, and within hours France, Germany and the United States promised to send armored fighting vehicles to Ukrainian battlefields for the first time.

It now seems likely that modern Western main battle tanks will join the growing list of powerful weapons being shipped to Ukraine as the US and its allies gain the upper hand. more risk to defend Ukraine, especially as its army made unexpected advances and held on withering attacks.

Although Ukraine has required sophisticated tanks since the start of the war, pressure to meet those demands mounted this week as the British and Polish governments urged publicly to a change in the position of the Western alliance.

The British signaled that they were about to agree to send a small number of main battle tanks, and the Polish government said it would be happy to send some of its German-built main battle tanks, even if Berlin should have allowed it.

Ukraine hopes more pressure will persuade German chancellor, Olaf Schoelzto authorize the export to Ukraine of German-made tanks found in the arsenals of other NATO allies.

The tanks, called Leopard 2are among the most coveted by Kiev and experts say that, in significant numbers, they would substantially increase Ukraine’s ability to reject to the Russian forces.

“Someone always has to lead by example,” the president of Ukraine said on Thursday. Volodymyr Zelenskyto the Polish state broadcaster TVP Info.

A spokesman for the German defense ministry said Scholz’s social democratic government had not taken any decisions.

But his coalition partners, the Greens and Free Democrats, support sending the tanks, and a senior minister stepped up the pressure on Thursday.

“There is a difference between making a decision for yourself and preventing others from making a decision,” Green Vice-Chancellor and German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in Berlin.

Designed over a century ago to plow through trench warfare, tanks are a combination of firepower, mobility and shock effect.

Armed with large guns, mounted on metal tracks, and equipped with more robust protective armor than any other weapon on the battlefield, tanks can traverse rough, muddy, or sandy terrain that wheeled combat vehicles might struggle.

In Ukraine, officials say armored vehicles will play a key role in battles for control of the towns and cities of the eastern border provinces with Russia.

General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top military leader, said that Ukraine needs it 300 tanks and those 600 armored vehicles western fighters to make a difference.

The sense of urgency to send more powerful weapons reflects in part the gloomy backwater from the battlefield of eastern Ukraine, where the Russians have been trying for months to take the city of Bakhmut and its surroundings, suffering heavy losses but gaining little ground.

In the last week the clashes have been particularly bloody in the nearby town of Soledar, and have taken place from block to block and from house to house, with conflicting claims on city control.

NATO allies that were once part of the Soviet sphere have handed over their Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine.

But much of Kiev’s fleet has been destroyed or worn out by months of battle, and is overdue without ammunitionwhich is incompatible with Western ammunition.

Since the war began almost a year ago, the West has resisted handing over some of its most powerful weapons to Ukraine, fearing it would lead to NATO auno direct conflict with Russia.

But seeing Ukraine’s determination to resist, the bleak prospects of soon-to-be peace talks and battlefield stalemate, NATO allies are breaking down.

The recently approved Patriots are the most advanced US-made air defense system and will help protect Kiev and other densely populated areas from Russian attacks that have crippled Ukraine’s power grid.

The armored fighting vehicles approved last week are lighter and easier to maneuver on the battlefield than tanks and can be transported more troopsbut they are not that powerful.

There are still some weapons that have not been considered, such as fighter jets and long-range missiles that could reach occupied Crimea and Russia itself.

The Biden administration, which leads the coalition of allies supplying arms to Ukraine, is holding back the M1 Abrams tanks American-made, which require constant maintenance and special fuel, and which officials say are too scarce to live without.

But US officials say they have never stopped Germany or any other nation from sending Western tanks to Ukraine.

It is estimated that there are quite a few 2,000 Leopard tanks Made in Germany in more than a dozen armies across Europe.

Some could be quickly shipped to Ukraine if approved by Berlin, though Ukrainian crews are expected to receive them training to use them.

A senior Western military official said this week that the balance of power in eastern Ukraine needed to be upset to break the war stalemate, and that sending fairly modern Western tanks and other fighting vehicles could help tip the line. weight scale.

Without tanks, a powerful component of ground warfare, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to recapture significant amounts of territory, the official said.

At the Pentagon, Laura K. Cooper, deputy assistant secretary of defense, said in a briefing last week that “we absolutely agree that Ukraine needs tanks.”

“This is the right time for Ukraine to leverage its capabilities, to change the dynamics on the battlefield,” Cooper said.

Ukraine is determined to carry on its military offensive, both in the middle of winter and after the muddy spring.

Russia is also telegraphing a spring offensive, a senior Western intelligence official said, and Ukraine “doesn’t want them to catch their breath” between now and when the fighting begins to intensify.

Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who resigned as NATO’s deputy secretary general for defense investment late last year, noted that Moscow appears to be mobilizing hundreds of thousands of new recruits for its offensive.

This, in part, advanced the tank debate, he said, “to enable Ukrainian forces to make progress meaningful now”.

Part of the debate, Grand said, centered around whether the tanks would give Ukrainian forces “some sort of decisive victory that would enforce peace on the Russians, or at least make such significant progress that any negotiated settlement would more conform to the their conditions”. than in Russian terms”.

The question of whether the Leopard can be shipped to Ukraine is likely to come to a head at a meeting of senior military and defense officials from dozens of nations, including NATO states, to be held on January 20 at Ramstein airport. Base (Germany).

Britain has so far said it is considering sending just 10 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. Britain has around 227 Challengers, which they have maintenance problems, and it would be difficult for him to replenish his supplies.

Part of the internal debate among British officials is politicsaid a senior European diplomat.

Rishi Sunak, the new prime minister wants to take some leadership in the war, and Britain and Poland appear to be acting in concert to put pressure on Germany.

In a closed session of his National Security Council on Tuesday, Sunak outlined a strategy to ramp up support for Ukraine, likely starting with tanks, to give Kiev an edge ahead of any peace talks, according to another senior European official.

But explicit approval from Washington would be vital in pushing Scholz to authorize the Leopards, as it was central to the decision to send the German-made fighting vehicles known as Marders, said Claudia Major, a defense analyst at the German Institute for international affairs. and Security in Berlin.

“Pressure on the Leopards is increasing from the Poles, the British and the Finns, but it is one partner in particular, the United States, which is more on a par with the others,” he said.

“With the Ramstein meeting just around the corner, I hope it happens soon.”

A senior Biden administration official said Washington has not pressured Berlin to send tanks to Ukraine and that the German government will make its own decisions on the level of military support.

Speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue more candidly, he described the talks between Washington and Berlin as “very active” and said that the Germans, “like us, have evolved their willingness to provide capabilities as the fighting they’ve changed. over time.”

United States of America he did not say its allies to refrain from delivering Western tanks to Ukraine, the official said.

The Germans view such a stance as a gimmick, according to Major, reflecting Washington’s reluctance to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

He said a Washington Abrams would be enough for Scholz to take action.

For now, proponents of sending tanks are focused on getting some country to make the first move.

Norbert Röttgen, a German opposition MP and foreign policy expert, predicted that Scholz would give in to the Leopards under Allied pressure, as he had earlier with German-made howitzers and tracked armored infantry fighting vehicles.

Scholz and his party “want to maintain a relationship with Russia and with Putin for the future” and Scholz “thinks that if he gives Ukraine the best that Germany has, Russia will perceive it as a break in a special relationship”. Röttgen said.

“But the pressure from allies is too strong.”

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