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One year of war in Ukraine: both sides double the offensive and there are no signs of an end

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The first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is celebrated with all war actors preparing for war. Under current conditions, none of the protagonists of this new European tragedy would think of planning peace. They are running Two opposing offensives.

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An immediate one from the Russians promoted by Vladimir Putin himself, who more than two months ago ordered that the occupation of the eastern region of Donbass, the richest in Ukraine and on the border with Russia, which contains the two small pro-Russian republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, already incorporated “forever” into the motherland.

The Russians are on the offensive to occupy the city of Bakhmut, in a continuous series of bloody battles. But so far he has managed to occupy only half of the Donbass region.

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Conquering the region would allow the Russian president to claim a victory he has so far not achieved in his year of invasion, in which lost almost all strategic calculations and must come out of the quagmire.

Fire in an apartment building after a Russian attack near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, on Tuesday.  Photo: EFE

Fire in an apartment building after a Russian attack near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, on Tuesday. Photo: EFE

The Ukrainian offensive

The other offensive is that of the Ukrainians, scheduled for April, conditioned by the arrival of new weapons promised by the USA, 27 European countries, Canada and Australia, which with tanks and ultra-modern armored vehicles, new missiles and anti-missile systems, special helicopters and other expedients should favor a fatal turning point for the Russians.

This offensive is due to its characteristics a great puzzle. The effort to get the new indispensable weapons to Ukraine and to ensure complex training of local soldiers and technicians, as well as the arrival of waves of ammunition to support the battlefields, stop the advances and the Russian advance, almost supposes a miracle of efficiency and coordination .

The Ukrainians have shown that they are capable of this.

Allied plans are very ambitious. Apparently the spring offensive, as they call it, would not be concentrated in the east, in the Donbass, but would aim to attack the Russians in the very heart of their strategic device, defined by a single name: Crimea.

The Russians retook Crimea in 2014, setting the stage for today’s war. It was a great move by Vladimir Putin. The peninsula that hosts the large Russian naval base of Sevastopol, which ensures control of the Black Sea, belonged to Ukraine, which proclaimed itself independent after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

A hospital damaged after a Russian bombing in Mariupol, in an image from 2022. Photo: AP

A hospital damaged after a Russian bombing in Mariupol, in an image from 2022. Photo: AP

For Russia’s ambitions to become a superpower, it was vital to recover it and they achieved it by postponing a war that Putin’s excessive ambition relaunched a year ago with an invasion.

The risk of a devastating escalation

Targeting Crimea in the largest offensive of the war is an open challenge to Russia. War preparations dominate in these days leading up to the anniversary, next Friday, February 24, 2022. If they are successful, the war will be hot and Putin will put new threats on the table with which he will react by shooting hypersonic missiles atomic charges of reduced power but of devastating impact that will bring the world closer than ever to a Third World War.

Today there are winds in that direction. NATO and the US insist they are not at war with Russia, but reality relentlessly denies these claims. The Atlantic Military Alliance is tasked with urgently assembling the new weapons essential to support the Ukrainians. And the new phase brings Russia face to face with the United States and its partners in the Atlantic military alliance.

To save Ukraine from defeat against Russia, it needs to be equipped a giant technological leap in weapons which require the intense training of thousands of soldiers and which also includes fighters and bombers. One need only mention the scale of the effort to understand how it inevitably imposes such a risky military scale between the West and Russia.

The presence in Kiev this Monday and in Poland this Tuesday of US President John Biden is another concrete step by the United States to get involved in the war. Poland is the NATO country that is rearming the most and sponsoring the hard line against the Russians the most.

In addition, Biden was expected to meet in the Polish capital with the group of former members of the communist-era Warsaw Pact, which forms the linchpin of the defense of the eastern flank of the Atlantic alliance against the Russians.

German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz said: “We have to prepare for a long conflict.” Nobody denied it.

Dangerous games

The problem is that it’s obvious the war deepens and spreads. Russia has sent a dozen warships to the Mediterranean and more nuclear-armed vessels to the Baltic Sea. Russian planes probe deep into NATO defenses. The latest incident has forced the fighter jets of three or four NATO countries that guard the skies of Poland and Romania to be put on alert and to fly.

These games are dangerous because any spark can cause a major military crisis. The Russians know this but are interested in impressing the Europeans and adding to the already large number of citizens who in polls say it is better not to send more military aid to Ukraine so as not to provoke the Russians’ atomic wrath.

the setting is general rearmament. All European countries are expanding their war budgets and are starting to openly address civilian and military mobilization programs to strengthen their defences.

Europe is paying a high economic price for the conflict, but there is no turning back.

Sweden and Finland have applied to join NATO, dealing a major strategic blow to Russia. Faithful neutrals for decades, the invasion of Ukraine has convinced them that only under the nuclear umbrella of the Atlantic alliance are they protected from Russian threats.

The strategic damage suffered by the Russians through their fault is enormous, because if Sweden and Finland join NATO they will turn the Baltic Sea into a lake of the Atlantic alliance. So far the Russians have reacted by sending atomic missile boats on patrol, something they haven’t done for thirty years.

In any case, the plunge by Sweden and Finland reinforces the reality of the armed peace that is conquering Europe, filling it with nerves.

Western strategists point out that Russia is holding back a decisive weapon in the war that can be unsheathed at any moment: aviation.

So far, in the large Russian base of Tarangog, bordering Donbass, and in the other military airfields that support the front line in Ukrainian territory, there is no greater concentration of fighter planes.

Russian aviation proved to be almost absent. Some attribute it to shortcomings in the preparation of pilots and precision bombs. It is believed that there is another factor and it is the will of the Kremlin to keep the most modern weapons in reserve for a possible escalation of the war.

It is estimated that the Russians may have as many as 1,500 fighters and bombers to use in a massive offensive.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned: “We know they have a strong capability in this area and Ukrainian air defense is not enough.”

Ukraine’s air force has suffered heavy losses, and both President Zelenski and Ukrainian military leaders are urging allies calling for the urgent dispatch of fighter planes.

At the recent meeting between Zelensky and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in London, the matter was on the table. The British promised to act immediately but warned of difficulties. It is necessary to choose the models and send the planes to Ukraine.

Military training

The most complex chapter is that of formation. It is necessary to send a large number of instructors to manage the material. The pilots will be trained on British soil, but the presence of British soldiers in Ukraine is also required.

Times are pressing but it is estimated that at least six months will be the period needed to fly the first aircraft with the Ukrainian flag and pilots.

The United States appears reluctant to supply aircraft due to the risk that attacks involving Russian territory could lead to a rapid escalation of the war. Outside of the British, France, Canada, Germany and other countries that could supply air forces have so far failed to respond to urgent Ukrainian requests.

Russians don’t sleep. In February, Russian fighter air strikes with remotely guided missiles were recorded against targets identified as strategically located ammunition depots.

The Russians have increased aircraft firing of Krypton missiles that detect Ukrainian radars and track their pulses until they are destroyed.

Until the new weapons arrive, Russian bombers will have the advantage of punishing Ukrainians in the Donbass and other high-altitude regions in the upcoming offensive.

B. C

Source: Clarin

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