Ukraine needs shells, and arms manufacturers want money. Join the EU.

BRUSSELS – Ukraine is so desperate for munitions that it fires far fewer artillery shells than it otherwise would, according to its defense minister.

But it’s still spending more bullets than the West can produce or supply, and making more bullets is expensive.

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In order for arms manufacturers to increase production and build new factories, they need large orders with guaranteed money, and those factories can take two or three years or more to get up and running.

Hoping to resolve these problems, EU defense ministers will meet in Stockholm on Wednesday to discuss proposals for using andthe EU budget order and procure up to one million shells for Ukraine, at an estimated cost of 4,000 million euros.

It is an approach that the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyencompares to what Europe used to get vaccines at an early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic:

pooling resources to offer more money upfront and encouraging producers “to invest now in new production lines” of “standardized products that Ukraine desperately needs”.

With this idea in mind, the Prime Minister of Estonia, kaja kallaswith the support of van der Leyen and the EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell Fontellesmade his ambitious proposal to buy up to a million shells for Ukraine.

Also, Borrell offered to spend 1 billion euros months to help reimburse countries donating artillery ammunition to Ukraine, prompting member states to place new joint orders for replenish and expand their existences, which are precariously running out.

Jens StoltenbergNATO’s secretary general has told his member nations not to worry too much about reducing their reserves for now, despite NATO’s formal requirements, as they may replenish them later.

But it warned last month that “the waiting time for large-caliber ammunition has increased from from 12 to 28 months”.

Initially, Ukraine’s challenge was to find enough Soviet-era munitions to satisfy its antiquated stockpile.

But European countries have recently sent modern Western weapons to Ukraine.

These require a bullet from a different size, 155 mm.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, arguing that his efforts to contain ongoing Russian attacks in the Donbass are hampered by a shortage of munitions, told his EU counterparts in a recent letter obtained by Financial Times which, at the very least, kyiv needed 250,000 shells of artillery per month.

He also claimed his forces were only firing a few 120,000 a montha fifth of the bullets they would normally use.

But a senior European official, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said the 12 companies in 10 EU countries that produce such artillery shells can only produce 650,000 a year, and this includes other types of ammunition that are in short supply, such as the 120mm shells needed for the German Leopard 2 tanks and the 105mm shells needed for the older Leopard 1 tanks.

The United States has already sent Ukraine about 1 million 155mm artillery shells from its stockpiles and is partially replenishing them with purchases from South Korea, which refuses to sell directly to Ukraine.

But the US also does not produce many 155mm shells and is trying to increase its production.

It is ramping up its production from about 14,400 shells a month to 20,000 this spring, with plans to produce 90,000 shells a month by 2025.

Needs

All of these numbers pale in comparison to Ukraine’s needs, not to mention the number of shells Russia fires at Ukraine, estimated at 10,000 a day, although sometimes it doubles, according to Borrell.

Russia it is also facing an ammunition shortage and its ammunition factories are working at full capacity.

But it also reduced the number of bullets it fires.

In the Donbass region last summer, the Russians fired 40,000 to 50,000 artillery shells a day, while the Ukrainians fired 6,000 to 7,000 a day.

Ukraine also needs ammunition for its fleet of Soviet-era T-72 tanks, which Western companies do not produce.

François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst, praised the joint-buying idea but warned that even if the money does come, Ukraine or its Western suppliers could don’t have the ammo they need it soon enough.

“It’s not coming fast enough, but it’s coming,” Heisbourg said.

“It’s not a question of resources or money. The 1,000 million euros are not the problem, it’s getting those factories going, and that takes time.”

Christian Mölling, director of the German Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Security and Defense, is also concerned that EU bureaucracy, despite the shared urgency, could slow down the process.

It would be much better and faster, he said, to give the money to the Ukrainians and tell them to order directly the ammunition they need, instead of going through Brussels.

“The EU should do what it does best, give money and not get involved in the bureaucracy of munitions procurement,” he said.

By now, Ukrainians already know what they need and what works best with each weapon, Mölling said.

Ammunition is not the only problem, given the need for spare parts, maintenance and trained personnel, the same requirements that will follow the supply of complicated Western tanks to Ukraine.

“It must be a endless stream“, She said.

The European Union and member states could also help, he suggested, by removing political constraints that complicate the situation, such as export licenses for arms shipments to Ukraine, which are intended to prevent weapons from falling into the wrong hands, and weather conditions and other regulations on ammunition production.

It could prompt bankers to invest in arms factories, which some banks are boycotting under pressure from shareholders, some of whom don’t want to profit from weapons.

And NATO could ease certification rules on the use of certain projectiles for certain weapons.

For example, he said, it is against German law to fire uncertified shells from German howitzers.

These regulations are intended for safety, but may also benefit manufacturers who make bullets to sell for guns they also make, similar to printer cartridges for specific printers.

Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general for defense investment, said NATO estimated 80% of 155mm shells could be fired from any western canyondespite restrictive certifications.

Increasing production by 50% would be easy, he said, with more shifts, though there are sometimes supply issues for key ingredients.

But increasing production by 300% would require huge investments in new plants.

The supply of ammunition, especially 155mm shells, “is the most pressing issue,” Borrell told EU foreign ministers late last month.

“If we fail in this, the outcome of the war is in jeopardy.”

c.2023 The New York Times Society