Russia’s spring offensive in Ukraine could include cyberattacks

WASHINGTON – A Russian government-linked hacker group appears to be preparing new cyberattacks against Ukrainian government infrastructure and offices, according to a report by Microsoft released Wednesday, suggesting Russia’s long-awaited spring offensive could include actions in the Cyberspaceother than on the ground.

The report also notes that Russia appears to be stepping up its leverage operations outside Ukraine in an attempt to undermine European and US support for continued military aid, intelligence sharing and other assistance to the Ukrainian government.

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The strain would come as a faction in the Republican Party — and some in the Democratic Party — argue that supporting Ukraine is not in the fundamental US interest.

For now, Russia’s main campaign of influence is in Europe, but it will shift to the United States “as the year approaches the fall presidential election debate,” said Clint Watts, head of the Digital Threat Analysis Center from Microsoft.

Since before the start of the war a year ago, Russia’s efforts to use its remarkable computer skills against Ukraine, and its failure to bring the government to a standstill as hoped by US authorities, has been the subject of intense study and a bit of mystery.

Evidence accumulated in recent months shows that Russia has often tried to coordinate cyberattacks with physical attacks against Ukraine’s power grid and other targets.

But Ukrainians were often one step ahead of Moscow and had security systems in place or created new ones, for example by moving much of the country’s digital operations to the cloud.

The report of Microsoft it carries significant weight because the company’s warnings about ongoing cyber attacks in the run-up to the war were largely relevant.

But it also suggests that Russia’s digital warriors, many of whom are tied to the country’s intelligence services, are trying again in the second year of the war.

In recent months, top US officials have started talking about their efforts in late 2021 to help bolster Ukraine’s cyber defenses and the rush to move government agencies to the cloud in the weeks after the invasion began. .

This minimized the damage Russia was able to inflict and allowed the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky broadcast messages on the Internet every day to mobilize citizens in the struggle.

Microsoft said it believed a Russia-linked group it had tracked was carrying out actions that could “be in preparation for a renewed offensive,” including reconnaissance, access operations and malware.cleanr” erase the data, just like the hackers did in the early days of last year’s invasion.

“There is an increase in attempts to break into government targets, attempts to break into critical infrastructure targets and then attempt to use hacker attacks. ransomware destructive or modified,” Watts said.

Ukrainian authorities say more than 10 cyberattacks occur every day Russian hackers focused on the energy sector, logistics facilities, military targets and government databases.

“We monitor risks and threats in real time 24/7,” said Ilia Vitiuk, head of the cybersecurity department of the Security Service of Ukraine, known as the SBU.

“We know most of the Russian special services hackers working against us by name.”

But while Russian cyber operations appear poised to ramp up, Ukrainian defenses, at least for now, remain strong, according to US and Ukrainian officials.

The United States and its allies have sometimes provided guidance to Ukraine’s own cyber forces on how to fight back against groups attempting to cripple their systems.

However, US officials have provided few details, just as they have refused to discuss the information they are providing Ukraine to help direct its missile and artillery systems.

Watts said Microsoft’s research showed Ukrainians had become too more resistant against Russian propaganda and that interest in Russian news sites among Ukrainians declined sharply as the war progressed.

Russia has concentrated its influence operations on Ukrainian refugees in Poland and other countries.

Moscow also addressed the audience of BORNtrying to erode support for the war.

“The deciding point for their influence operations now is Western Europe,” Watts said.

“They are trying to use active measures to undermine support for Ukraine in Western Europe.”

For now, Germany remains the most decisive battleground for Russian-influenced operations, as Moscow hopes to make it more difficult for Berlin to send further military aid to Ukraine.

Russian propagandists, according to Microsoft and US officials, have pushed narratives that blame allied support for Ukraine for driving up inflation and energy prices.

While the effectiveness of influence campaigns is difficult to judge, in some respects such efforts have been more successful than cyberattacks.

Last year, Russia attempted to carry out several cyber attacks against the Ukrainian energy grid.

But the Ukrainian defenders neutralized hundreds of attacks on energy structures and only 30 they have become critical incidents that have caused disruptions, Vitiuk said.

Russia’s sustained campaign of rocket and drone strikes against electrical infrastructure has also proven far more effective than cyberattacks, plunging much of the country into cold and darkness for days at a time.

Even when cyberattacks on the power grid have been successful, Watts said,

“Ukraine has been very capable of recovering very quickly.”

c.2023 The New York Times Society