Establishment of Korea-U.S.-Japan Nuclear Umbrella Council, Is it the starting point for a new international order?

A U.S. Air Force F-35A stealth fighter jet tests a B61-12 tactical nuclear bomb. [미국 공군]

Defense ministers from NATO member countries are holding a meeting of the Nuclear Program Group (NPG). [NATO]

It is because of the nuclear sharing strategy that NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) European member countries can confidently confront Ukraine with military support even in the face of Russia’s nuclear threat. NATO’s nuclear-sharing strategy is that five European member countries, including Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Turkey, which do not possess nuclear weapons, have signed a nuclear-sharing agreement with the United States, and in the event of a nuclear war, they are entitled to use US tactical nuclear weapons deployed in their respective countries. means to be given

NATO’s nuclear sharing strategy was built on Germany’s strong insistence. Unlike the UK and France, which achieved their own nuclear armament after the establishment of NATO in 1949, Germany (then West Germany) was located in the central region of Europe and had a geographical weakness that would inevitably turn its territory into a battlefield in the event of a war using conventional or tactical nuclear weapons. Even while holding on to it, it was a war criminal country in World War II, so it was in a position that it could not independently arm itself with nuclear weapons. For this reason, the German government strongly requested the US government to prepare an institutional mechanism to practically share the right to use US tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Germany in preparation for a nuclear attack by the former Soviet Union. In response, the US government created an organization called the NATO Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) in 1966.

North Korea threatens to build up exponential nuclear warheads

The NPG is composed of defense ministers from 29 NATO member countries, excluding France, and is an organization that makes decisions on nuclear weapons operation or discusses and coordinates nuclear weapons information and nuclear strategies. The decision of this body is unanimous, but the final authority on whether to use nuclear weapons rests with the US president. Nonetheless, fighters from NATO’s European member states regularly conduct tactical nuclear weapons acquisition, handover, installation, and launch training.

While the US government is discussing the establishment of a new trilateral consultative body with the governments of Korea and Japan to strengthen nuclear deterrence, attention is focused on whether the three countries will create an organization similar to NATO’s NPG. On March 8, Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun reported that “the United States is promoting a plan to expand nuclear power-related information sharing through a new consultative body, while at the same time securing South Korea and Japan’s trust in the US’ extended deterrence and strengthening nuclear deterrence.” did. The newspaper said, “The US government plans to consult with the South Korean and Japanese governments by referring to NATO’s NPG.”

The intention of the US government seems to be to make the so-called ‘nuclear umbrella’ a little stronger. The nuclear umbrella is the security policy of the United States to deter attack by third countries on its allies by making it clear that it will strike back if it is attacked as well as its allies. In this regard, Eli Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security, said, “The United States is discussing with South Korea and Japan a new mechanism to strengthen extended deterrence.” did.

The reason why the U.S. government is promoting the establishment of the Korea-US-Japan nuclear umbrella consultative body (tentative name) is because it believes that practical measures to strengthen extended deterrence are inevitable in order to respond to Kim Jong-un’s increasing level of nuclear threats, such as the ‘exponential increase in nuclear warheads’. In fact, the U.S. National Intelligence Service (DNI), in its annual threat assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies (March 8), said, “Kim Jong-un continues to show a strong will to strengthen nuclear armament and place nuclear weapons at the center of the national security system.” “Kim Jong-un continues efforts to strengthen nuclear and conventional capabilities aimed at the United States and its allies,” it said. “Kim Jong-un sees nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as the ultimate means of ensuring his dictatorship, and believes that the international community will recognize North Korea as a nuclear-weapon state,” he said. would pose a significant threat to the United States and its allies.” DNI Director Avril Haynes told a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing that “North Korea is regularly engaging in aggressive and destabilizing actions against the United States and its allies in order to reshape the regional security environment to its advantage and strengthen its status as a de facto nuclear power.” there is,” he said.

“We need a consultative body comparable to NATO’s NPG”

U.S. think tanks and security experts are also in the position that the establishment of a nuclear umbrella consultative body between Korea, the U.S. and Japan is necessary. The Korean Peninsula Commission under the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a US think tank, published a report titled “U.S. North Korea Policy and Proposals for Extended Deterrence” (Jan. ·The expansion of the multilateral nuclear umbrella, including France, can also be considered.”

The CSIS Korean Peninsula Committee is composed of John Hamley, CSIS Director, Joseph Nye, Harvard University Professor, Richard Armitage, former Deputy Secretary of State, Victor Cha, CSIS Korean Chair, Vincent Brooks, former US Forces Korea Commander, Wendy Cutler, former Deputy Trade Representative (USTR), and Sumi Terry Wilson Center Asian Director. It is composed of 14 people, including former high-ranking U.S. officials and experts on the Korean Peninsula. As a countermeasure against North Korea’s provocation, the report also suggested a plan to coordinate strategic asset management among Korea, the U.S., and Japan along with the “Blue Lightning” exercise.

Blue Lightning training refers to training in which B-52H and B-1B strategic bombers deployed at Anderson Air Force Base in Guam are mobilized to the Korean Peninsula to master bombing missions at key North Korean facilities in case of emergency. Christopher Johnston, chair of CSIS Japan, said, “When the U.S. homeland is threatened with a nuclear attack, you may wonder if the U.S. will really defend its allies. You have to consider making a frame,” he said. Former ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Commander Curtis Scaparrotti and Barry Paveland Institute National Security Vice President also emphasized, “It is desirable to create a new extended deterrence consultative body comparable to NATO’s NPG.”

Currently, there is a ‘proliferation deterrence force consultation (EDSCG)’ between Korea and the US and an ‘Extended Deterrence Dialogue (EDD)’ between the US and Japan. The deputy ministerial level for the Korea-US consultations, the North American affairs counselor at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the deputy director of the Defense Policy Bureau at the Ministry of Defense in Japan, and the deputy assistant secretary of state and deputy defense secretary in the United States attend the consultations between the US and Japan. The ‘Yomiuri Shimbun’ said, “The Japanese government is reviewing the direction of accepting the US government’s proposal.” The reason why the Japanese government is actively participating in the creation of a new consultative body is because the ROK-US extended deterrence agreement is being strengthened. Nevertheless, in Japan, the world’s only country exposed to radiation, there are opinions that are reluctant to participate in the Korea-US-Japan trilateral consultative body.

On the other hand, the South Korean government, concerned about the ever-intensifying North Korean nuclear threat and missile provocations, is taking a positive stance. Director of the National Security Office Kim Seong-han said, “South Korea and the US are discussing with the US about a plan that can work systematically in relation to extended deterrence.” I plan to go,” he said. The issue of establishing a nuclear umbrella consultative body between Korea, the U.S. and Japan is expected to be discussed in detail at the Korea-Japan summit (March 16 in Tokyo, Japan), the Korea-U.S. If the Korea-U.S.-Japan nuclear umbrella consultative body is established, the three countries can show strong solidarity and at the same time further advance security cooperation.

China plans to deploy 1,500 nuclear warheads

In the midst of this, it is said that the US government is promoting the creation of the Asian Nuclear Planning Group (ANPG) to respond to the nuclear threat from China as well as North Korea in the future. Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a US think tank, wrote in a report titled “Crisis of Confidence: The Need to Strengthen US Extended Deterrence in Asia”, “Inducing Australia’s participation in the creation of the ANPG to collectively respond to regional threats in the Indo-Pacific region. It has to be done,” he stressed. The Chicago Council on International Affairs also said in a report (February 2021) titled ‘Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Stability of US Allies’, “The United States created the ANPG to involve Australia, Japan, and South Korea in the US nuclear program process and to encourage allies to It should provide a platform to discuss specific policies related to power.”

The US Department of Defense also mentioned in its 2022 “Nuclear Posture Review” report that “an important goal is to find opportunities for information sharing and dialogue between South Korea, the US and Japan, or South Korea, the US, Japan and Australia” as measures to enhance extended deterrence. Australia, like South Korea and Japan, is a country that has a military alliance with the United States. Australia is also a member of Quad, a security alliance of four Indo-Pacific countries, including the United States, India, and Japan, and a member of AUKUS, a security alliance of three countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom. ANPG may develop into a ‘quad plus (+)’ to keep China in check in the future. China is pursuing a plan to deploy 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035. Considering these points, if the Korea-US-Japan nuclear umbrella consultative group is created, it could be the starting point for a new international order not only in Northeast Asia but also in the Indo-Pacific region.

Janghoon Lee International Affairs Analyst [email protected]

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.