North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced on the 18th that the first military reconnaissance satellite had been completed and that it would be launched within the planned timeframe, while also making it clear that the goal was to neutralize extended deterrence against North Korea, including US strategic assets. Following the recent test-launch of the Hwasong-18 solid fuel engine intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of delivering nuclear weapons to the U.S. mainland, this time a military reconnaissance satellite is used to deploy U.S. strategic assets such as nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and strategic bombers to the Korean Peninsula. to detect in advance. It even explicitly hinted at the intention of launching a preemptive strike by aiming with nuclear weapons if necessary. If North Korea’s warning becomes a reality, there are concerns that it could disrupt the strategic asset management and preparedness of South Korea and the United States, as well as the extended deterrence (nuclear umbrella) of the United States.
North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency released a military reconnaissance satellite on the 19th. Although the picture is blurry, the satellite is believed to be in the shape of a hexagon with four solar panels on top. Although specific specifications and major components have not been confirmed, experts believe that it weighs more than 300 kg. An official from a military research institute said, “It is larger than the square-shaped (satellite) ‘Gwangmyeongsong-4’ shot in February 2016, and it is estimated that it is equipped with about two electronic optical cameras.”
North Korea is expected to soon launch a reconnaissance satellite with a new launch vehicle using the Baekdusan engine used in the Hwasong-18 (solid fuel ICBM) or Hwasong-15/17 (liquid fuel ICBM). A military official said, “North Korea claims its legitimate right to self-defense and space development, but it is in fact an advanced nuclear threat in that it has predicted an ‘ICBM-level provocation’.” The military expects that North Korea will launch four or more reconnaissance satellites in the future to monitor the Korean Peninsula, including South Korea and Japan, with a two-hour revisit cycle.
North Korea’s launch of a military reconnaissance satellite is highly likely to follow the procedure of launching Kwangmyongsong-4 in February 2016. It is said that there is a possibility that it will be launched into a ‘solar-synchronous orbit’ after giving a prior notice to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and others about the propagation of navigational warnings and the landing points of the 1st to 3rd stage propellants. Cho Gwang-rae, former head of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, observed, “If North Korea wants to put a reconnaissance satellite into a sun-synchronous orbit, it has no choice but to launch it along the west coast toward the southeast of the Philippines, as it did when launching Kwangmyongsong-4.”
In order for North Korea’s reconnaissance satellite to exert its power, it must be ‘sub-meter level (recognize objects less than 1 meter in width and height)’. North Korea unveiled a test satellite with a resolution of 20m in December of last year, but at the time, South Korean military authorities evaluated that it had no strategic or tactical value. However, as Chairman Kim’s younger sister, Vice Minister Kim Yeo-jeong, hinted at the development of high-resolution satellites, the resolution of the newly launched military reconnaissance satellite is expected to be upgraded to the 50cm level.
The Kwangmyongsong-4, launched by North Korea in 2016, failed to function due to a somersault after entering a 500 km low orbit. It revealed the limitations of satellite orbiting and attitude control technology. It is noteworthy that North Korea may have completed the related technology when launching a satellite launch test in seven years.
During a visit to the National Space Development Agency on the 18th, Chairman Kim savagely criticized the ongoing deployment of a vast amount of strategic equipment such as a US nuclear aircraft carrier and strategic bombers on the Korean Peninsula. He then rationalized the development of military reconnaissance satellites, saying, “possessing space reconnaissance capabilities to constantly control the military intentions and movements of hostile forces” and “strengthening self-defensive defense capabilities to use preemptive military power depending on the situation.”
In the end, it openly hinted at its intention to maximize its nuclear force by identifying the location and movement of US strategic assets with reconnaissance satellites and accurately striking them with various means of delivering nuclear weapons (ballistic missiles). Kim Dong-yeop, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, emphasized, “Military reconnaissance satellites are a core force in terms of an offensive shift in nuclear deterrence, which was recently announced at the enlarged meeting of the Central Military Commission of the Party.” A military official also said, “North Korea sees reconnaissance satellites as a ‘trump card’ that will head-on to break through the strengthened deterrence of South Korea and the United States on North Korea.” North Korea said it could neutralize the extended deterrence of the United States if it threatens the US mainland (Washington, New York) with solid fuel ICBMs that can be secretly and quickly launched in case of emergency, and at the same time detects the movement of US strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula in advance and threatens a tactical nuclear strike. This means that you will be judging.
Yoon Sang-ho, military reporter [email protected]
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.