Facing the imminent Ukrainian attack, Putin faces setbacks and disunity from Russian forces

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Drones exploded over the Kremlin.

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Russian military planes crash before even reaching Ukrainian airspace.

A Russian mercenary boss is delivering one profanity-filled speech after another, claiming that corrupt Russian generals who “everybody smell like expensive perfume” are sending soldiers to their deaths.

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And the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive it hasn’t even started Oh really.

The graves of Wagner's fighters in Bakinskaya, Russia in February.  Photo Nanna Heitmann

The graves of Wagner’s fighters in Bakinskaya, Russia in February. Photo Nanna Heitmann

These appear to be bad weeks for the Russian president Vladimir Putina time when the problems that have plagued their 15-month war since its inception are only getting worse:

scarcity of resources, disorganized defenses and disunity in the ranks.

These problems now threaten to derail what just weeks ago finally seemed like a rare military success within Russia’s reach:

victory in the bloody and protracted battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

Russian forces, while fighting fiercely within the city limits, withdrew from positions on the edge of Bakhmut and, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, lost two colonels in combat.

Ukrainian soldiers west of Bakhmut last week after a month of fighting inside the city.  Photo Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

Ukrainian soldiers west of Bakhmut last week after a month of fighting inside the city. Photo Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

Yevgeny V. Prigozhinthe leader of the mercenary group Wagnerwho has made Bakhmut’s capture his main goal, has railed on social media against the Russian army, accusing its leadership of not adequately supplying its fighters and its soldiers of abandoning their positions on Wagner’s flanks.

The spectacular public spat between Prigozhin and the defense ministry – and Putin’s apparent inability or unwillingness to stop it – has rekindled doubts about Moscow’s ability to succeed on the battlefield itself, where coordination between disparate units is vital. importance.

failures

The Russian military has already been forced to do this retreat on multiple occasions and, since last year, has been virtually stagnant along the 600-mile front line.

“One of the ways Putin stays in power is that he likes to have multiple factions, and he likes factions to compete with each other,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research.

“That may make sense in politics, but it’s a lot, Very harmful in a military operation.

The challenge for Putin goes beyond the battlefield as he struggles to convey an air of competence and confidence to his audiences and Russia’s elites.

A prominent Russian businessman in Moscow, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, said Prigozhin was making the government look “absolutely clumsybrainless and idiotic, and it seems more and more that it really is.”

But the businessman, echoing Western analysts, said he didn’t see Prigozhin’s antics, or dramatic incidents like the mysterious Kremlin explosions on May 3, as derailing Putin’s war effort.

Instead, he and his colleagues prepare for a war that could last for years, even if they disagree.

The dysfunction, infighting and tension, analysts say, could be misinterpreted as a sign Putin will face political constraints in pursuing war, when he is more likely to be constrained by economic challenges, military-industrial capability and mismanagement. of the battlefield.

“There is so much obsession with looking for fractures and possible sources of instability in Russia that it tends to nullify our ability to see sources of resistance and continuity,” said Andrew S. Weiss, vice chair for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International. Peace.

Weiss pointed out that in the system authoritative and upright In Russia, the leaders’ policies do not have to be approved by the population as they would in a democracy.

“They have a lot of leeway to continue the criminal war,” he said.

Putin, who values ​​loyalty above all else, seems willing to tolerate squabbles among his warlords as long as they pose no personal threat to him.

Among the Russian elite, businessmen seem to have gotten used to the idea of ​​a years war and have adapted supply chains – and their own consumption and travel patterns – to Western sanctions.

And among the public, the pervasive sense of being under siege by a powerful foreign enemy – a message repeated daily on state television – has given Putin ample license to keep fighting, even amid setbacks. .

The Russian president remains convinced he can outlive both Ukraine and the West, Western officials and analysts say, as do Russians who know him.

But there are no signs that Putin will pay off his bet anytime soon.

The recent Russian setbacks came as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Berlin, Paris and London, receiving renewed pledges of military aid from his European allies.

Its success suggests that Western support for Ukraine may be stronger than Putin realizes.

Growing support from Western partners is starting to help Ukraine on the battlefield, another challenge for Moscow.

missile batteries patriot supplied from the United States offer to better protection against Russian attacks on the Ukrainian capital and Britain’s long-range cruise missiles allow Ukrainian forces to strike further behind Russian lines.

Russian media also reported that four Russian planes crashed or were shot down over the western Briansk region bordering Ukraine on Sunday in a major blow to the Russian Air Force.

No event has attracted more attention in recent days than Prigozhin’s incendiary rhetoric, which seemingly crossed new lines by targeting Putin before backing down; at one point he suggested that the Russian people could accept the matter in your own hands if the country’s military leadership has not changed.

Part of the problem for Putin lies in the unequal goals on the battlefield.

Lee, the military analyst, noted that Prigozhin’s goal, which is to get Bakhmut above all else, differs from the priorities of the Russian Defense Ministry, which must ration your resources and to consider other places on the front that could come under pressure from a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

“Throughout this war,” Lee said, “there’s been a problem of unity of command, and it’s a problem that Putin apparently thinks is fine, but it’s created a number of problems.”

It was unclear whether regular Russian military units would come to Wagner’s aid, or vice versa, in the face of a Ukrainian onslaught, he said.

Prigozhin has been trying to gain control of the city since October, turning Bakhmut into a holy grail for both sides.

He proclaimed that his private combat team – made up of mercenaries, veterans and convicts recruited from Russian prisons – is superior to a dying Russian army weighed down by incompetent leadership.

Prigozhin intended to capture the Ukrainian city before May 9, a holiday commemorating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany during World War II.

But as his forces scrambled to meet the deadline, he began targeting Russian military leaders in blatant videos, accusing them of failing to supply his men enough ammo.

The shock value of his recordings attracted attention, such as when he lashed out at Russian generals in front of a pile of bloodied corpses of their fighters.

So have his comments against the Russian military, at a time when across Russia people face prosecution, fines and prison terms for speaking negatively about the war or “discredit“to the Russian Armed Forces.

In a recent video, he said that the problem posed by a Russian army led by people who ask for nothing but blind loyalty should be solved – “or one day the Russian people will solve it themselves.”

In another, he appeared to be targeting Putin.

Echoing a nickname for the Russian leader used by his critics, he rhetorically asked what would become of Russia if the “grandfather” who believed all was well on the battlefield turned out to be a “complete asshole“.

He later suggested he was referring to a senior Russian general, not Putin.

Washington Post, Citing leaked US intelligence documents, he said on Sunday that the chief mercenary had offered to reveal Russia’s frontline military positions to Ukraine if the country agreed to withdraw from the area around Bakhmut.

Prigozhin denied the report as a “hoax,” suggesting that powerful people in Russia, jealous of his force’s battlefield record, may be spreading false information about him.

So far, the Kremlin hasn’t expressed dissatisfaction with the way Prigozhin speaks and behaves, said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, noting that when someone has displeased Putin, that displeasure often shows.

Prigozhin’s behavior carries significant costs and risks, he said, but the Russian leader has decided that so far it falls within the bounds of what is acceptable.

He also ruled out that the mercenary leader is a political threat, even though Prigozhin is making a name for himself in large sectors of Russian public opinion.

“I don’t see Prigozhin raising political issues for Putin personally,” Stanovaya said.

For bureaucrats, the matter is different.

“Everyone looks at Prigozhin and everyone is shocked,” he said.

“For Putin, it’s not a problem.”

c.2023 The New York Times Society

Source: Clarin

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