The battle of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, which has caused the most casualties in the past 10 months, has ended with a Russian victory. Russia’s attack on Bakhmut was part of a strategy to seize control of the entire Donbass region in eastern Ukraine. However, the New York Times (NYT) of the U.S. reported on the 24th (local time) that Russia, which managed to win at Bahmut after sustaining heavy losses, has little capacity to advance further using this victory as a springboard.
Experts estimate that the Russian army was exhausted at the Battle of Bahmut. Also, the Russian army has not been able to advance anywhere else. Russian forces are only repeating small-scale attacks on cities across Ukraine.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian army is expected to launch a counterattack after training with a newly formed unit armed with weapons supported by the West.
Because of this, the Russian army has no choice but to focus on defense in general. The Russian army, which is distributed along a 1,000-kilometer front, has been concentrating on building a defense line since last winter.
Rob Lee, a military expert at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, said that while the Russian military could launch a tactical, localized attack, it would basically focus on defending itself against a counterattack from Ukraine.
Russian forces have been focusing on building a defensive perimeter throughout last winter and spring. Some attacks were attempted in the Bahmut and Audiuca areas, but few additional areas were occupied and the consumption of troops and equipment was great.
In the southern area, where Ukrainian forces are expected to focus their counterattack, Russian forces have established complex first and second trench barriers and sprayed mines.
If Ukrainian troops advance, the Russian air force can attack them. The advancing Ukrainian forces are vulnerable to air defense.
In southwestern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces recaptured the city of Kherson last November, but the Dnipro River is an obstacle to further advance. Ukrainian forces crossing the Dnipro River in an open space with a wide river can easily be bombarded by Russian forces.
Ukrainian-backed Russian soldiers from the north have infiltrated the Russian mainland and occupied some areas, much to the dismay of the Russians celebrating the Bakhmut victory.
Russian forces were defeated on three fronts last year. around Kiu, northeastern Kharkiv, and Kherson. In recent days, Ukrainian forces have made some advances north and south of Bakhmut, stopping further Russian advances. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the representative of the Wagner Group, who took the lead in occupying Bakhmut, announced that the Wagner Group would withdraw and hand over defense duties to the Russian army. However, there is a risk of great confusion in the process of withdrawing the Wagner group.
Researcher Lee pointed out that “Bahmut is a difficult place for defensive operations.”
The Russians now have to decide whether to advance west of Bahmut. The Ukrainian forces positioned on the high ground between Chasiv Yar, a few kilometers away, could easily attack the advancing Russian forces. In addition, Russian forces will have to face Ukrainian forces trying to recapture Bahmut.
The West estimates that Russian casualties have reached 200,000 this year, and that Ukrainian forces have also suffered significant damage.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.