President Erdogan’s 49.5% majority in the first round of elections
Gathering votes before the final vote… Both candidates are far right
Independent candidate Oh An received 5.2% of the vote… Attention casting boat
On the 28th (local time), the final round of the Turkish presidential election will be held. With no majority vote in the first election, the far-right party in the third zone played a decisive role in the final vote. In order to gain their support, the two final candidates are focusing on sweeping the vote at the last minute with an anti-immigration policy. Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who placed first and second in the first round of elections, and Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kultzdaroglu are both moving to the extreme right. As a result, there are also observations that there are many votes that have lost their way to the policy line that has lost differentiation.
◆The 1st election without absolute power… Third Zone Hugging Competition
In the first round of the election on the 14th, there was no majority vote. In the Turkish presidential election, which implements a runoff voting system, if there is a candidate who has absorbed more than half of the votes in the first round, the winner is determined in the first round. However, if no candidate reaches a majority, a runoff will be held for the top two candidates. Voters will vote again for only two candidates.
President Erdogan, who enjoyed the incumbent effect in the first round of elections, received 49.5% of the votes, slightly short of the majority. The representative of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), who was nominated as the candidate of the opposition coalition to check President Erdogan, who had been in power for 20 years, received 44.9% of the vote. It trailed by about 2.5 million votes. After promising to end authoritarian regimes and move toward parliamentary democracy, CEO Klzda Roulu became the joint candidate of the opposition coalition.
The prevailing view was that President Erdogan would eventually win. The variable is the actions of Sinan Oan, an independent candidate with an anti-immigration tendency, who achieved unexpected publicity. Candidate Oh An, who attracted votes from the third zone and non-partisans, recorded 5.2% of the vote with the support of a small coalition of conservative parties.
The results of the first round of elections meant that no one could get a majority vote on their own. Then, Candidate Ahn Oh’s influence grew. The prospect that he will become the ‘casting boat’ that will cover the final game has emerged.
◆For a close win… The choice of the two candidates is the extreme right
The 2.83 million votes (5.2% of the vote) held by Candidate Ahn Oh in the first round emerged as the key to determining the direction of the presidential election. As Candidate Oan announced on the 22nd (local time) that he would stand on the side of President Erdogan, some predicted that the outcome of the presidential election had already been decided.
After searching for an alternative in the political space, CEO Cults Daroglu gained the support of the Victory Party, which has a strong anti-immigration tendency. In other words, the Victory Party, which belonged to the coalition of conservative parties that supported Candidate Oh An in the first round, broke the coalition and turned to the opposition.
In a meeting with Victory Party leader Umit Ozdag to gain support from the Victory Party, Clzdaroglu agreed on the need to repatriate millions of migrants within a year.
“Refugees must return to their home countries. It was announced that the representative of Clz Daroglu clearly said that he would implement the refugee repatriation policy,” and “therefore, the Victory Party decided to support him in the second presidential election.”
Representative Cultz Daroglu’s move this time can be interpreted as attracting votes to unite nationalist voters in the final vote.
◆Both candidates are anti-immigration… Voter choices narrow
Turkey is one of the most accepting countries for refugees.
3.5 million Syrians are receiving temporary protection. In reality, however, more Syrians are known to be staying in Türkiye. Immigrants from Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan also live there.
Amid economic difficulties such as inflation, anti-immigration sentiment was heightened inside Turkiye. The issue of repatriation of immigrants emerged as a major issue in this election as well.
The solution the two candidates chose was to embrace hardline anti-immigration forces.
As a result, voters who oppose anti-immigration policies are forced to make difficult choices. At the same time, hardline anti-immigrants were also put in a position where they had to make difficult choices due to the ‘policy convergence’ of the two candidates.
As discrimination in immigration policy has been lost, analysts say that the victory of President Erdogan, who enjoys the incumbent effect among the two candidates, is realistically very likely.
However, the incumbent effect does not always lead to good results.
The devastating earthquake that struck southern Turkey early in the morning of February 6 killed at least 50,000 people. Some point out that traces of political-business collusion with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), revealed in the response and investigation after the earthquake, and the murderous soaring prices may form negative public sentiment and hinder President Erdogan’s last-minute victory. This is why the world’s attention is focused on the choice of the people of Turkey on the 28th.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.