The Democratic candidate’s vote rate in each by-election is ahead of Biden’s in the 2020 presidential election.
Democratic Party wins overwhelmingly in state Supreme Court judge elections and abortion referendums
There is a big difference between voters’ evaluation of Biden and the views of the Democratic Party leadership.
The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 26th (local time) that although the approval rating for U.S. President Joe Biden has been low in various opinion polls over the past two years, the Democratic Party has won most of the by-elections held during that period.
President Biden won 27 states and lost 21 states in the 2020 presidential election. However, in state by-elections held after President Biden took office, the Democratic Party was found to have won an average of 7% more than President Biden’s victory in the presidential election.
In addition, in the Wisconsin Supreme Court judge election held last spring, the progressive candidate was ahead by 11%, and in the Ohio referendum held last summer on the issue of allowing abortion, the Democratic Party won by a 14% margin.
These election results suggest that backlash from the conservative Supreme Court’s ruling last summer invalidating federal abortion rights is continuing. The issue of allowing abortion is a powerful driving force for moderate Republican voters to support Democratic candidates.
The Democratic Party is doing its best to make the abortion issue an election issue. The goal is to use issues highlighted in special elections in each state as advantageous issues nationwide in the presidential election.
In the 2010 by-election for the Senate seat in Massachusetts, a Democratic stronghold, Republican candidate Scott Brown, who opposes President Barack Obama’s health care reform policy, was elected. On the other hand, in 2018, Democratic candidate Kono Lam, who criticizes Trump, was elected in the by-election for the House of Representatives in Pennsylvania, a Republican stronghold.
It has been widely acknowledged that the two cases were precursors to the Republican and Democratic parties’ respective victories in the midterm elections.
Some of the by-elections held this year had so few voters that it is difficult to take them as a sign of the next presidential election. For example, there were less than 2,800 voters in the New Hampshire congressional by-election held last week.
President Biden’s low approval rating reveals a difference between how voters view Biden and how Democratic leaders view the election. Former President Obama once won a midterm election despite his low approval ratings. This is a point that Biden’s advisors emphasize.
The side that wins a by-election tends to emphasize its significance and the side that loses is denigrated.
In an email to supporters, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, President Biden’s campaign adviser, said in an email to supporters that Democrats won last week in the Pennsylvania state House of Representatives by-election and maintained the majority, and that Republicans lost to the Democratic candidate in the New Hampshire state legislative election. He emphasized that President Biden is politically powerful. He said, “It’s not just a one-time victory. It shows that our voices are heard by voters. “There will be repercussions across the country,” he wrote.
The results of the upcoming Virginia election are of particular interest. This is because there is a high possibility that it will be a predictor of next year’s presidential election. If voting had been conducted according to the newly enacted division of voting districts, Democrats could have won last year’s midterm elections and taken a majority of the House of Representatives. On the other hand, Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin won the 2021 gubernatorial election.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.