“North Korea may intervene in the Ukraine war to increase its position on the world stage.”
“China may demand support for invasion of Taiwan in return for support from Russia”
The US presidential election is also a variable… Possibility of suspension of aid to Ukraine if Trump is elected
As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has already passed 500 days, an analysis suggests that there is still a possibility that a prolonged war could escalate into World War III.
The National Interest, an American bimonthly magazine specializing in international affairs, paid attention to this possibility in a recently published article titled ‘Will the war between Russia and Ukraine lead to World War III?’ The war in Ukraine, which broke out on February 24 last year, lasted 583 days as of the 30th.
The media pointed out, “So far, the conflict has remained within the scope of what the international community can manage, but the prospect of a bigger fire is not far off.” Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Committee Chairman Oleksiy Danilov recently warned that “World War III is already underway.”
The media points out that due to Russia’s continued invasion and Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the current war is showing a stalemate like the foxhole war of World War I. Both sides are only sustaining casualties without any significant strategic or territorial gains.
The National Interest’s analysis is that in a situation where neither Russian President Vladimir Putin nor Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can step down, the worst-case scenario that could lead to World War III still exists.
The media broadly presented scenarios that could lead to World War III in the future, including ▲deployment of weapons reinforcements due to the collapse of each side’s front lines, ▲unintended escalation of war due to misfires of missiles, etc. ▲intervention by neighboring countries according to their respective interests.
In particular, North Korea’s actions were discussed in relation to intervention in neighboring countries. While arms trade negotiations between North Korea and Russia are assessed to be making rapid progress, Chairman Kim Jong-un recently visited Russia and held a summit meeting with President Putin.
The media selected North Korea as a country that could intervene in the Ukraine war, and evaluated that “Kim Jong-un will not shed tears if North Korean troops die in Ukraine (due to intervention in the war) and assume a more important role on the world stage.”
China’s actions also attracted attention. The media explained that China has maintained its superficial neutrality in the war in Ukraine and that “China understands that its economic crisis is partly related to the deterioration of relations with the United States.”
However, he predicted, “The Chinese leadership is actively considering a forced annexation of Taiwan or a war of conquest,” and “Xi Jinping may at some point propose a deal asking Russia to support an invasion of Taiwan in return for support for the United States and Europe.”
In addition, the deployment of nuclear weapons due to the collapse of the Russian front, the possibility of deploying new weapons by the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) due to Ukraine’s inferiority, and the invocation of NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause due to a misfire in neighboring countries such as Poland, were cited as possible opportunities for escalation of war.
However, National Interest believed that there were still positive scenarios that could end the conflict, citing the case of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia after the 2014 Crimean Peninsula conflict. This means that both countries can accept a ceasefire without ‘admitting defeat.’
Meanwhile, the 2024 US presidential election was considered a ‘wild card’ that could change the direction of the future Ukraine war. In particular, it is assessed that if former President Donald Trump is elected in next year’s presidential election, U.S. support for Ukraine may be halted, which will have a significant impact on the war.
Already in the US Republican Party, there have been steady voices expressing skepticism about the continuation of support for Ukraine as the war prolongs. Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has expressed his position since last year that support for Ukraine should not be a ‘blank check.’
In addition, in light of former President Trump’s perspective on alliances centered on profit and loss, some analysts say that he may pressure not only his country but also NATO to stop supporting Ukraine. In this case, Ukraine may be reluctantly forced into a ceasefire.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.