With the U.S. presidential election scheduled for November next year approaching in about a year, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are showing a close race in various virtual opinion polls. President Biden has faced a crisis amid controversy over his advanced age and claims of responsibility for the war in the Middle East, but analysis suggests that he is somewhat ahead of his ‘enemy’ former President Trump in terms of competitiveness. However, variables such as concerns about a federal government shutdown (temporary business suspension) and third zone candidates becoming a reality are emerging one after another. In addition, former President Trump’s judicial risk remains a burning ember, and the US presidential election is entering a chaotic phase.
According to a Fox News poll released on the 12th (local time), in a hypothetical presidential election next year, President Biden received 49% support and former President Trump received 48% support, a difference of 1 percentage point, which is within the margin of error (±3 percentage points). . In a Washington Post (WP)-ABC survey late last month, President Biden, who was 9 percentage points behind former President Trump (51%), which was outside the margin of error, has recovered the close race again.
However, President Biden fell behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, the opposition Republican Party’s second and third-place primary candidates. In a hypothetical matchup with Governor DeSantis, it was 47% to 49%, and with former Ambassador Haley, the difference was further widened by 4 percentage points (45% to 49%), which was outside the margin of error.
Fox News said, “The approval rating for a hypothetical confrontation with former President Trump is higher than Biden’s approval rating (41%).” This supports the White House and Democratic Party’s argument that President Biden remains competitive in the confrontation with former President Trump despite the controversy over his age. Chris Anderson, CEO of Beacon Research, a public opinion research firm, told Fox News, “If a ‘Biden vs. Trump’ rematch takes place, Democratic supporters will unite at the level of a pressure cooker. On the other hand, if the Republican Party chooses another candidate instead of Trump, that unity will immediately decrease.” “It is,” he said.
In the Morning Consult survey on the 10th, President Biden had a close race with 43% and former President Trump (42%), within the margin of error. In The Messenger survey, President Biden was 41% and former President Trump was 45%.
While some in the Democratic Party continue to talk about alternative candidates, the White House plans to highlight the outcome of a hypothetical confrontation with former President Trump as the core of its ‘Rose Garden Strategy (re-election strategy).’ Axios, an Internet media outlet specializing in U.S. politics, reported, “White House advisor Mike Donilon told Democratic lawmakers who were anxious about Biden’s candidacy, ‘Trump and abortion (the issue) will lead Biden to re-election.’”
Even in battlegrounds that will determine the outcome of the presidential election, the approval ratings of former and current presidents Biden and Trump are fluctuating. In a recent poll by public opinion research firm Emerson, former President Trump was ahead by 2 percentage points and 9 percentage points, respectively, in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which are located in the declining industrial region of the ‘Rust Belt’. On the other hand, according to a CNN survey, in Nevada, President Biden was 46% and former President Trump was 45%.
A major variable in the presidential election is the candidacy of third-party candidates, including the independent candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a member of the Democratic Party. In a Fox News three-way virtual showdown survey, Biden and Trump each won 41% and Kennedy won 16%. Contrary to expectations that President Biden would be at a disadvantage, some of former President Trump’s supporters also moved to Kennedy, who had vocalized hard-line conservative tendencies, including ‘anti-vaccine’. Accordingly, the Trump election camp is also showing caution toward Kennedy.
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Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.