Israeli tanks and infantry raid on Gaza… All-out ground war

The U.S. deploys two aircraft carrier battle groups, and Russia responds with fighter jets equipped with hypersonic missiles.

As the armed conflict between Israel and the Palestinian armed faction Hamas intensifies, U.S. movements are also becoming more busy. Immediately after Hamas’ invasion, the United States dispatched the ‘Gerald Ford’ aircraft carrier (aircraft carrier) strike group, which was resting in Italy, to Israel. Next, an increase in the ‘Dwight Eisenhower’ aircraft carrier strike group that was waiting on the U.S. mainland was also announced. The landing preparation group centered on the amphibious attack ship ‘Bataan’ was relocated from Bahrain to the Sinai Peninsula, and the cruise missile nuclear submarine ‘Florida’, which was stationed at the Passlane base in Scotland, England, was also dispatched to the Mediterranean. In addition to this large-scale naval force, the United States also deployed a large number of air force fighter jets to Jordan. Currently, the largest U.S. military force has been concentrated in the Middle East since the Iraq War. The situation is escalating to an all-out ground war, with the Israeli army launching a surprise attack on Hamas’ base in the Gaza Strip with tanks and infantry in the middle of the night on October 26 (local time) and then withdrawing.

Among these, what is particularly noteworthy is the dispatch of the US Navy landing command ship ‘Mount Whitney’, which was staying in Italy. Mount Whitney is the sister ship of the 7th Fleet flagship ‘Blue Ridge’, which leads theater operations on the Korean Peninsula in case of emergency. It is a strategic command post on the sea that is not used in military operations of any size. The fact that this ship came to the Eastern Mediterranean and joined the Gerald Ford squadron was a very serious signal. This is because it is a paving stone for the prospect that the armed conflict between Israel and Hamas will escalate into a large-scale war.

In response to this incident, the United States announced that it would deploy two fully equipped aircraft carrier strike groups. The Ticonderoga-class Aegis cruiser ‘Normandy’ and the Arleigh Burke-class Aegis destroyers ‘Roosevelt’, ‘Lamaji’, ‘McFall’, and ‘Thomas Hudner’ are assigned to the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier group in the southern waters of Cyprus. All five ships are Aegis ballistic missile defense (BMD) operational ships with ballistic missile interception capabilities. The newly deployed Eisenhower aircraft carrier battle group is also fully organized. The Aegis cruiser ‘Philippine City’ and the Aegis destroyers ‘Gravely’ and ‘Mason’ are joined by the Italian Navy air defense destroyer ‘Virginio Passan’. In addition, the Type 45 air defense destroyer ‘Duncan’ (UK), Aegis frigate ‘Menendez Nunez’ (Spain), and air defense destroyer ‘Carlo Margotini’ (Italy) belonging to the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) permanent fleet are currently waiting in the Mediterranean Sea. , frigates ‘Shirkouf’ (France), ‘Yavuz’ (Turkiye), and ‘Psara’ (Greece) are also scheduled to join.

The official reason for deploying large-scale fleet forces of the United States and NATO to the Eastern Mediterranean is ‘prevention of escalation’. The purpose is to prevent the fighting between Israel and Palestinian armed groups in the Gaza Strip from expanding to neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Syria, and Iran through military demonstrations. However, the armed conflict is already expanding out of control, and fierce fighting is taking place along the borders of Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which has 100,000 to 150,000 troops, has begun mobilizing its forces. Pro-Iranian militias in Syria, estimated to number up to 100,000, are also forming units and moving toward Israel. Yemen’s pro-Iranian armed group Houthi rebels have already fired missiles at Israel, and Iraq’s pro-Iranian militias have surrounded Al-Asad Air Base and Al-Harir Airfield, where US troops are stationed, and are firing drones and rockets. Since the West’s large-scale military demonstrations failed to prevent the escalation of the war, speculation is gaining ground that the only thing left to do is the US military’s participation in the war.

Israeli troops deployed on the border with Lebanon. [뉴시스]

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced on October 21 that the Eisenhower aircraft carrier group would be deployed to the 5th Fleet under the Central Command, i.e. to waters near Iran, rather than to the waters off Israel. However, in order for the Eisenhower aircraft carrier group to cross the Suez Canal and reach the 5th Fleet area, it must pass through the Eastern Mediterranean. This means that it will pass through the waters near Cyprus where the Gerald Ford battle group is deployed, and the end of October, when two aircraft carrier battle groups gather in the Eastern Mediterranean, will be a ‘time of anxiety and fear’ for Hezbollah and Syria. This is because if America’s two aircraft carrier battle groups and the cruise missile submarine Florida decide to attack, they can fire hundreds of Tomahawk missiles at the same time.

In response to this move, Hezbollah loudly shouted in a statement, saying, “We will destroy the American aircraft carrier.” Hezbollah, an armed group, possesses a multi-layer air defense network and a large number of long-range anti-ship missiles thanks to support from Iran and Russia. Hezbollah operates an air defense unit armed with a variety of surface-to-air missiles, including the SA-10B, SA-6, and SA-3. Strike assets such as the Russian-made supersonic anti-ship missile ‘Yakhont’, the Chinese-made ‘Nur’, and the Iranian-made ‘Fate-110’ are also on standby. On the other hand, Syria appears to have shrunk significantly. Syria, which had been suffering from Israeli airstrikes even before this incident occurred, became very nervous as the U.S. aircraft carrier strike group approached. Syrian dictator President Bashar al-Assad maintains power by maintaining a symbiotic relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He is stationing a large number of Russian troops in Syrian territory and providing them with various benefits. He is also supported by large pro-Iranian militias operating in Syria in cooperation with Iran. Likewise, the regular army in Syria, where the president maintains power with the help of foreign forces, is poorly equipped. If the United States decides to attack Syria, there is no way to stop it.

Israel, well aware of this situation, warned, “If Syria intervenes in this war, we will remove President al-Assad.” As President Al-Assad’s situation became dangerous, President Putin announced special measures. The goal is to check the U.S. aircraft carrier strike group and protect Syria with fighter jets equipped with strategic weapons. On October 18, President Putin instructed the Russian Aerospace Force to “perform the Black Sea patrol mission with MIG-31 fighter jets armed with Kinzhal missiles and make this routine and permanent.” He also criticized the United States’ recent decision to deploy two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Eastern Mediterranean, saying, “Kinjal has a speed of over Mach 9 (speed of sound) and a range of over 1,000 km. “The Black Sea patrol of MIG-31s ​​armed with Kinzhal will provide visible control over events taking place in the Mediterranean,” he said. It is clear that this measure is aimed at the US aircraft carrier strike group threatening Syria.

Considering only the catalog specifications released by Russia, Russian aircraft carrying Kinzhal, a hypersonic missile, and patrolling the international airspace of the Black Sea pose a great threat to the US aircraft carrier strike group near Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean. The MIG-31K, a modified version of the high-altitude/high-speed interceptor MIG-31, is equipped with one Kinzal missile. Theoretically, the Kinjal range is 2,000 km, so even if it is launched from the high seas of the Black Sea, it can sufficiently hit US aircraft carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean. In particular, Russia claims that Kinzal’s anomalous ballistic technology can penetrate the air defenses of the US Navy’s aircraft carrier battle group. President Putin’s move will certainly be good news for the Syrian Al-Assad regime.

A Russian Air Force MIG-31 fighter jet is flying equipped with the hypersonic missile Kinzhal. [뉴시스]

However, what is strange is that the MIG-31 fighter jet, which began the Black Sea patrol mission immediately after President Putin’s order, was deployed to the Crimea. Combining commercial satellite images and video data released by the Russian military, it is confirmed that at least four MIG-31s ​​were deployed at Belbek Base, north of Sevastopol, Crimea. Two of these appear to be MIG-31BM for long-range air-to-air combat, and the other two appear to be MIG-31K Kinzhal launch platforms. The MIG-31BM is an interceptor equipped with the ‘Jaslon-M’ radar, which can detect and attack fighter-sized aerial targets from 300 km away, and the R-37, a large air-to-air missile with a maximum range of 400 km. The MIG-31K is a platform dedicated to launching Kinzhal, giving up radar and air-to-air combat capabilities in order to carry over 4 tons of Kinzhal missiles.

According to the catalog specifications, the MIG-31 has an operational radius of 1,450 km even when fully armed when cruising at subsonic speeds, but when flying at high speeds, this is halved to 720 km. Since there is no need to fly at supersonic speeds during patrol flights, it is theoretically common sense that the MIG-31 should be deployed at the Sochi or Bombora bases in the eastern Black Sea, which are safe from drone and missile attacks by the Ukrainian military. Nevertheless, Russia deployed MIG-31 forces to the Belbek base in the western part of the Crimean peninsula, which was frequently subject to air raids by the Ukrainian military. Belbek Base was originally where the Russian Army’s 27th Mixed Aviation Division was stationed. As the Ukrainian military’s missile and drone airstrikes have intensified since the fall of last year, most of the troops stationed there have moved to the rear, to the Rostov region. This base is located on the coast less than 300km away from Odessa, making it extremely vulnerable to aerial attacks by the Ukrainian military or infiltration by special forces. In addition, a large-scale offensive by the Ukrainian military between May and August of this year destroyed a significant portion of the Russian air defense network in the western part of the Crimean Peninsula. The Belbek base has become more vulnerable as the Russian S-400 battery, over-the-horizon radar site, and long-range air defense radar site in the Crimean Peninsula have all but disappeared.

Nevertheless, why did Russia deploy the MIG-31 at the Belbek base? This appears to be because the performance of Russia’s boasted aircraft or missiles is significantly lower than initially known. The range of the Kinzal missile revealed by Russia is 2,000 km. However, Russia has never launched Kinzhal at a distance of 2,000 km since its invasion of Ukraine. So far, most of the Russian military’s Kinzal missiles have been launched from Bryansk on the Russian mainland or from Masulisich Air Base south of the Belarusian capital. These missiles hit the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, with a flight distance of only 500 km. For this reason, there were many analyzes that the actual range of the Kinzal missile was much less than 2,000 km. Coincidentally, President Putin said on October 18 that the range of this missile is ‘more than 1,000 km.’ If Kinzhal’s range reaches 2,000 km, Russia does not need to send the MIG-31 to the high seas of the Black Sea. This is because Kinzhal can be launched from Russian airspace immediately after sorties from Sochi or Bombora bases to attack US aircraft carriers south of Cyprus. The fact that the MIG-31 was deployed at the dangerous Belbek base seems to be proof that Kinzal’s actual range is only about 1,000 km as mentioned by President Putin, rather than the officially announced 2,000 km.

Smoke rises from a Russian military facility in Crimea that was hit by an airstrike by the Ukrainian military. [뉴시스]

The US aircraft carrier strike group is staying in the waters southwestern of Cyprus to avoid the threat of Hezbollah’s surface-to-ship missiles. If Kinzal’s actual range is only about 1,000 km, the MIG-31 would have to fly to the southwestern Black Sea in order to attack US aircraft carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean with Kinzal. The distance from the Belbek base on the Crimean peninsula to the southwestern Black Sea is about 300 km, but Sochi is over 750 km away. This corresponds to about half of the MIG-31 operational radius according to the catalog specifications. Nevertheless, the fact that Russia deployed the MIG-31 at the Belbek base means that the catalog operation radius has also been greatly inflated. Kinjal is very large and heavy. It is highly likely that the MIG-31 equipped with Kinzhal will experience increased air resistance during flight, resulting in a reduced operational radius.

The biggest problem from Russia’s perspective is that the Ukrainian military’s airstrikes on the Crimean Peninsula have intensified since the deployment of MIG-31s ​​at the Belbek base. President Putin’s actions against Syria have put Russia’s valuable strategic assets at risk. Soon we may hear news that the MIG-31 and Kinzhal missiles were destroyed in an attack by Ukrainian forces. The Israel-Hamas war is having a significant impact on the United States and Russia.

《This article
Weekly Donga No. 1412
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Shin In-gyun, CEO of Independent Defense Network

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.