If the Israeli military shells the launch point, children or patients will die.
In the second week of November, Israeli ground forces began the campaign to eliminate Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This clearing battle, conducted by the Israeli military at the bridgehead established on the northwest coast of the Gaza Strip, is unfolding in a very different way from existing urban warfare. The most recent example of urban warfare that took place before the Israel-Hamas war was the Russia-Ukraine war. Looking at the urban battles that took place in Bachmut, Severodonetsk, and Mariupol, the method was to pour in a huge amount of artillery fire and bombing before the attack and then push in the ground troops.
On the other hand, in this street battle in the Gaza Strip, the first thing the Israeli army fired was not artillery shells but leaflets. Recently, Israeli military transport planes have been circling the skies over the Gaza Strip, distributing leaflets every day that say, “Civilians should evacuate to safe areas because an attack will begin soon.” The Israeli side is said to make an evacuation guidance call to a number found on the cell phone base station in the area targeted for evacuation, or, if the call is not answered, provide evacuation guidance through a text message (SMS) or even a voicemail message. And the bombing begins after at least 30 minutes.
A street fight is a fight in which the attacking side has a greater handicap than the defending side, but this battle in Gaza is a little different. The Israeli military has overwhelming surveillance and reconnaissance assets and firepower, and has refined its doctrine and tactics through large and small urban battles with Hamas and Hezbollah over the past several decades. Thanks to this, the Israeli military is steadily expanding the clearing area by more than 1 km per day without causing significant damage, even though the Israeli military is carrying out operations by notifying the attack in advance and paying attention to the evacuation of civilians.
The reason the Israeli military is so considerate to Palestinian civilians is not just because they are good people. Israelis clearly saw what Hamas did on the first day of the war. Hamas killed and humiliated Israeli civilians in a brutal manner that is difficult to describe. Many Israeli residents who saw this wore military uniforms and raised guns, shouting “an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.” Nevertheless, the reason the Israeli military is putting so much effort into protecting Palestinian civilians is because of concerns that harm to Palestinian civilians could lead to anger throughout the Arab world.
Residents escaping from the northern part of the Gaza Strip controlled by the Palestinian armed faction Hamas. [뉴시스]Hamas is an Arabic abbreviation for ‘Islamic Resistance Movement’, and the word itself means ‘dedication and passion to follow Allah’. They declared the liberation of Palestine and the eradication of Zionism as their primary goals, but in reality, they are a group of warlords who exploit and oppress the residents of the Gaza Strip by selling the name of God. Even before this war, they have continued to exploit the residents and only benefit a very small number of executives. Even after the outbreak of war, the leadership stays in foreign luxury hotels and resorts and incites residents to death.
Hamas’s lowest-level members are currently engaging in hostage-taking rather than fighting in the Gaza Strip. On the first day of the war, about 230 to 250 civilian hostages were kidnapped and detained, and residents were also used as human shields to prevent Israeli military bombing. Videos released by the Israeli Army’s 36th Division, which is currently carrying out an operation to enter the Gaza Strip, show Hamas members setting up rocket and mortar positions in kindergartens, schools, hospitals, as well as mosques and attacking Israeli troops. If the Israeli military uses anti-artillery radar to trace the origin of the launch and fires it, children in kindergartens and schools and patients in hospitals will die.
If this causes damage to the elderly and weak, Hamas will greatly inflate the number of victims and launch a propaganda campaign by creating as cruel and pitiful scenes as possible. The shelling of Al-Ahli Hospital on October 17 is a representative example. At the time, Hamas accused Israel of committing a terrible war crime, claiming, “Israeli forces bombed a hospital, killing 471 people and injuring 314.” Foreign media rushed to the site in response to Hamas’ shocking claims, but no evidence was found that the Israeli military had bombed the site. When a reporter for the New York Times asked, “If it was an Israeli bombing raid, please show us the remains of the missile,” Hamas responded by saying, “As soon as the debris hit the water, it melted like salt and there was nothing left.” Afterwards, based on physical evidence such as closed-circuit television (CCTV) near the hospital and bullet marks at the scene, it was concluded that an errant bullet fired by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) landed at the hospital. Nevertheless, Hamas has so far defined this incident as a mass murder of civilians by Israel and is using it as a propaganda tool to anger the Arab world and call for a joint response.
Such propaganda by Hamas serves as a good justification for extremist warlords in the Middle East. Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels virtually declared participation in the war under the pretext of protecting the Palestinian people. Pro-Iranian militia groups in Syria and Iraq also began to intervene one by one. Hezbollah is already engaged in combat on Israel’s northern border, and the Houthi rebels are flying missiles and drones toward Israel every day. Warlords in Syria and Iraq are also fiercely attacking US military bases in the Middle East, saying they will completely drive out Israel and the US.
Hezbollah, which is considered the strongest organization among warlords in the Middle East, has a military power greater than that of the Lebanese regular army. In addition to a mechanized unit consisting of 100,000 to 150,000 troops and tanks and armored vehicles, mid- and short-range surface-to-air missiles and surface-to-ship missiles are also in operation. The Houthi rebels also have a force of 200,000, and are a force with considerable combat power through a civil war that has lasted nearly 10 years. They recently received intermediate-range ballistic missiles from Iran and attempted to attack the Israeli mainland.
The United States unusually announced that it had deployed an Ohio-class submarine to the Middle East. [미 국방부 제공]While Hezbollah and Houthi rebels have a certain political organization and leadership, it is difficult to tell who exactly leads the pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq. There are seven major armed groups in Syria, which operate as regional tribal alliances. It is said that small organizations have 800 to 900 troops, and large organizations have about 29,000 troops. However, since each tribe’s influential families share power, it is difficult to know exactly who leads the organization. The case of Iraq is more complicated. The Iraqi militia officially has a unified command system under the name of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), but there are about 70 militia organizations operating independently under the name of ‘?? Brigade’ for each region, political party, and tribe. The reason why militias proliferate despite the presence of regular Iraqi government forces is because of the Sunni extremist armed group ‘Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)’ that swept the region in the past. As ISIL grew, local tribes formed militias to protect themselves. Iran, which claims to be the leader of Shiites, provided enormous support to these militias and succeeded in bringing many of them under its influence. After ISIL disappeared, many Sunni organizations also joined the PMF. Currently, Turkiye is exerting influence by supporting Sunni-affiliated organizations, and Iran is supporting Shiite-affiliated organizations.
Most of the militias attacking U.S. military facilities in Syria and Iraq are Shiite-affiliated organizations supported by Iran. To support and manage them, Iran established the ‘Quds Force’, a separate organization within the Revolutionary Guard. Kataib Hezbollah, Badr Organization, and Kataib Al-Imam Ali, which operate in Iraq, are large-scale organizations that are well controlled by Iran. These organizations openly declared war on the United States. In fact, he led most of the attacks targeting US military facilities in Iraq. For this reason, suspicions persist that Iran is behind the scenes leading the anti-American armed struggle that is spreading throughout the Middle East.
The problem is that militia attacks on US troops stationed in Syria and Iraq are becoming more and more intense. Before the increase in troops due to the Israel-Hamas war, about 900 U.S. troops were stationed in Syria and about 2,500 in Iraq. Officially, the justification for their presence is to eliminate ISIL remnants and stabilize the region. However, in reality, it appears to be carrying out a mission to protect gas pipelines and oil fields in Syria and Iraq from anti-American and anti-Western forces. The purpose may also be to establish a forward base needed to carry out military operations against Iran in case of emergency. Al-Hair Air Base in northeastern Iraq, which has recently been under intensive attack by militias, is located 640 km away from Tehran, the capital of Iran. The United States needs to maintain this base as one of its strong bargaining chips against Iran. From Iran’s perspective, U.S. troops must be driven out from Iraq and Syria, including here. The justification for the pro-Iranian militia’s recent series of declarations of war against the United States and attacks on bases is ostensibly to save the Palestinian people and punish Israel, a ‘war criminal’. But behind it all lies Iran’s strategic needs.
Iran recently began supplying ballistic missiles to militias it de facto controls. Until now, militias that have attacked U.S. military facilities in Iraq have used mortars, rockets, and drones at best. However, on November 6, the first case of an attack using the Iranian-made ballistic missile ‘Fate-110’ was reported. The frequency of attacks is becoming more frequent and their intensity is increasing. Since there are only a few ground combat troops at U.S. military bases in Syria and Iraq, if several militia organizations join together to surround them from all sides, it is difficult to guarantee their survival even if they are U.S. troops. This is why the United States deployed the Dwight Eisenhower battle group to the Middle East, placed the Bataan landing preparation group with a Marine Corps rapid task force on standby, and forward-deployed a cruise missile submarine heavily armed with 154 Tomahawk missiles. In case of emergency, the purpose is to prevent militia encirclement by deploying large-scale firepower and somehow maintain the base.
A demonstration in support of Palestine held in Yemen. [뉴시스]However, as the war history of the past 20 years has proven, the militia groups gathered around the base will not be reduced in size or weakened no matter how many bombings they do. During the War on Terror, the United States used overwhelming firepower to eliminate the militias, but the militias in each region endlessly mobilized their troops to harass the U.S. military, just like fireworks. Unlike in the past, U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq are now greatly weakened. The militia has the justification of helping Palestine carry out a holy war and also has a strong supporter in Iran. This means that attacks on U.S. forces will continue with an intensity that is incomparable to before.
US President Joe Biden is preparing for next year’s presidential election. In a situation where he is far behind former President Donald Trump in recent opinion polls, dealing with each Middle Eastern militia individually could be like pouring water on a pot of water, a handshake that leads directly to defeat in the presidential election. One could consider directly striking Iran, the ‘final boss’ that controls all situations, as the saying goes, but this is a scenario that would require accepting the worst possible situation, including nuclear war. Attention is being paid to what choice President Biden, who has been cornered in the last days of his term due to diplomatic mistakes over the past three years, will make.
Shin In-gyun, CEO of Independent Defense Network
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.