At the meeting on the 15th, discussion was held on resumption after 1 year and 3 months.
Military communication between the United States and China, which was cut off in August last year after China protested against then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, will be held at a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco on the 15th (local time). There is a growing possibility that it will be resumed following the summit meeting.
U.S. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on the 13th, “President Biden will be able to report whether progress has been made in restoring military communication (between the two countries) after the summit,” and added, “We had constructive conversations with China on this issue.” revealed. On the 14th, Japan’s Kyodo News also quoted a source as saying, “It is expected that the leaders of the two countries will agree to partially reopen military dialogue channels.”
The United States has been concerned that if military communication is not restored, an accidental incident could occur in Taiwan, the South China Sea, etc. U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken, who visited China in June this year and met with President Xi, also strongly requested this, but China rejected it. In this situation, as the Biden administration gave a green light to restoring military dialogue, which was a key task of this meeting, expectations grew that the relationship between the two countries would also enter a stabilization phase.
The dismissal of former Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who was sanctioned by the United States in 2018 for exporting weapons to Russia in violation of the U.S. embargo, at the end of last month also raises optimism about the resumption of military communication. China requested the lifting of sanctions against former Director Li, but the United States also refused, heightening tensions between the two countries.
Xi Jinping responds to U.S. request for lenience for the first time in 6 years
Possibility of resumption of consultative body on military issues between the two countries
War in the Middle East – War of nerves expected over Taiwan issue
“U.S. President Joe Biden views the U.S.-China summit not as a ‘one-time meeting,’ but as a moment to build a ‘foundation for the future.’” (U.S. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan)
“The world’s attention is focused on whether the two countries will lead the global economy out of difficulties.” (Global Times, a Chinese state-run newspaper)
Ahead of the face-to-face summit between US President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled to be held in San Francisco, California on the 15th, expectations are growing in both countries that this meeting will improve the relationship between the two countries, which was at its worst.
In particular, the possibility of resumption of communication in the military field between the two countries, which the United States has continuously requested, has increased. China stubbornly refused military communication, citing issues such as the visit to Taiwan by then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August of last year and U.S. sanctions against former Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu. This change in attitude appears to be due to the recognition that there is an urgent need to improve relations between the two countries, both in China, which is struggling with a slowdown in the real estate economy, and in the United States, which is struggling with two wars taking place in the Middle East and Europe.
If President Biden and President Xi agree to resume military communication, the United States and China are expected to communicate regularly when launching fleets or fighter jets in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, etc. in accordance with the Military-Maritime Consultation Agreement (MMCA) signed in 1998. It is also highly likely that the defense policy coordination agreement, where the two countries discuss major military issues, will be restored. China completely suspended MMCA and defense policy coordination consultations immediately after former Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
The sudden dismissal of former Director Lee, another axis of the conflict between the two countries, at the end of last month also raises expectations for the resumption of communication. The United States proposed to China a meeting between U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and former Vice Minister Lee ahead of the Asian Security Conference (Shangri-La Dialogue) held in Singapore in June this year. China requested the lifting of sanctions against former Director Li, and when the United States refused, the meeting between the two countries’ ministers was also canceled.
Since January 2021, when President Biden took office, the two leaders have met a total of six times. Among these, the first face-to-face meeting was held at the G20 summit held in Bali, Indonesia in November last year. The meeting on the 15th, which will be the seventh, takes place during President Xi’s first visit to the U.S. mainland since the inauguration of the Biden administration, so it carries an incomparable weight with previous contacts.
President Xi’s visit to the U.S. mainland for the first time in six years since 2017 and his appearance of responding to the U.S.’s request to resume military communication ahead of the summit are due to the war between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas, the war in Ukraine, and high inflation. This can be interpreted as a result of the judgment that both the United States, which is in trouble, and China, which is experiencing a serious economic slowdown, desperately need progress in their relationship.
However, there are speculations that the two leaders will continue their tense war of nerves over the war in the Middle East and Taiwan.
Sullivan said on the 13th, “President Biden will emphasize to President Xi that Iran’s actions that increase tensions in the Middle East do not serve the interests of China and other responsible countries.” This is interpreted as a remark aimed at the fact that Iran has been suspected of supporting Hamas and that US troops stationed in Syria and Iraq have recently been repeatedly attacked by pro-Iranian militants. China is expanding its influence in the Middle East, including mediating the normalization of relations between Iran and ‘enemy’ Saudi Arabia in March this year.
On the same day, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maoning criticized Israel, saying, “The humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip is serious,” citing Israel’s repeated airstrikes on Al-Shifa Hospital in the Gaza Strip.
Regarding Taiwan, China can never give up the ‘one China’ principle, and the United States is maintaining its position that China should not interfere in Taiwan’s presidential election in January next year.
Due to the large difference in opinions between major countries on the two wars, it is expected that participating countries will face significant difficulties in adopting a joint statement at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held in San Francisco from the 11th to the 17th.
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Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.