On the 14th (local time), the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised upward its forecasts for global oil demand and supply for this year and next year, even though an economic slowdown is expected in almost all major countries.
According to Market Watch and CNBC, the IEA said in its November international oil market report released today that supply will remain tight as Saudi Arabia and Russia voluntarily reduce production by the end of 2023, but it is highly likely that supply will exceed demand early next year. expected.
The IEA pointed out that this year’s oil demand is supported by the United States’ solid production increase and China’s record demand in September.
The IEA observed that demand will increase in 2024 due to expectations of interest rate cuts and the recent decline in crude oil prices.
The report concluded, “Demand still exceeds available supply due to winter in the Northern Hemisphere, but there is a high possibility that crude oil prices will fluctuate in the future as the market balance continues to be affected by high economic and geopolitical risks.”
Still, the IEA analyzed that in relation to the war between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas, “It is not having a significant impact on oil supply, as concerns that it may develop into a wide-scale regional conflict are not realistic.”
The IEA raised its forecast for demand growth this year from 2.3 million barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day compared to the previous year. Demand was set at 102 million barrels per day, an increase of 200,000 barrels from the previous month. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts an increase of 2.46 million barrels per day.
The supply forecast was raised by 200,000 barrels per day from the previous month to 101.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.7 million barrels per day from the previous year.
The outlook was maintained that supply would exceed demand next year. The forecast for demand growth was raised from 880,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day.
Although it is far below OPEC’s predicted increase of 2.25 million barrels per day, daily demand increased to 102.9 million barrels, 200,000 barrels higher than in October.
The supply forecast was revised upward by 100,000 barrels from the previous month to 103.4 million barrels per day.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.