Two days’ worth of German ammunition stockpiled, 150 obsolete British tanks
Only 90 long-range artillery pieces owned by France were destroyed in a month.
Even if we invest little in military spending, it takes a long time to see results.
Britain, which spends the most on defense in Europe, has only about 150 tanks and dozens of long-range artillery pieces. Last year, Britain, which has few weapons of its own, considered providing Ukraine with multiple rocket launchers stored in a museum, but canceled it at the last minute.
France, which has the second largest defense budget, only has 90 long-range artillery pieces. This is the number of Russian artillery destroyed each month in the Ukraine war. Denmark has no long-range artillery and no submarines or air defense systems. The German army is only stockpiling enough ammunition for a two-day battle.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 11th (local time) that as Europe’s military power has weakened significantly in the decades since the end of the Cold War, concerns are growing about Russia’s expansionism and America’s isolationism deepening. .
The United States accounts for 70% of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) power.
Russia does not directly threaten Europe right now. Western leaders see Russia as being restrained by the war in Ukraine. But few doubt that if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, it will cause problems within three to four years. Russian President Vladimir Putin has long emphasized the revival of the Russian empire, which encompasses not only Ukraine but also other Eastern European countries, including the Baltic countries.
The weapons production capacity of European countries has been greatly reduced. In addition, European countries have little room for defense investment due to strong opposition to reducing welfare spending despite aging and shrinking economic growth.
The Ukraine war clearly exposes Europe’s problems. Former NATO Secretary-General Anders Raspusen said, “NATO countries outperform Russia and its allies economically and industrially, but their weapons production capabilities are insufficient. If weapons production does not increase, the threat of war will grow.”
◆Support for Ukraine
If former President Donald Trump is re-elected in the U.S. presidential election next year, he is expected to strongly demand a reduction in U.S. troops stationed in Europe and an increase in defense spending in European countries.
European countries promised to provide 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine, but are unable to deliver due to lack of production capacity.
British Army Commander Patrick Sanders recalled the time in 1937 when Britain and its allies were debating whether to stand up to Hitler. “Like the 1930s, threats at a strategic level are growing. If so, we need to start preparing,” he emphasized.
Putin could pressure non-NATO members such as Moldova and Georgia, launch sabotage attacks in the Baltic states, or significantly increase Russian troops stationed in Kaliningrad, between Poland and Lithuania.
Even during the Cold War, Europe’s conventional forces were greatly inferior to Russia’s. Instead, they were able to block Russia’s strategic offensive with nuclear weapons. Mark Sedwill, former British national security adviser, emphasized, however, that conventional forces have become very important because today it is impossible to respond to small-scale Russian provocations with nuclear weapons.
During the Cold War, the defense budget of NATO member countries was around 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), but decreased to 1.3% in 2014. There has been an increase since 2014, when Russia occupied the Crimean Peninsula, but the pace is too slow. Over the past decade, defense spending across the EU has only increased by 20%. During the same period, Russia increased by 300% and China increased by 600%.
At the end of the Cold War, the number of troops in West Germany reached 500,000, and in West Germany 300,000, but now in unified Germany, the number is only 180,000. In the 1980s, West Germany had about 7,000 tanks, but unified Germany currently has 200 tanks. Even that is only half usable. Germany’s tank production capacity is only 3 units per month.
The Netherlands completely disbanded its tank force in 2011 and handed over its tanks to Germany. Many European countries abolished conscription systems after the end of the Cold War.
Currently, Russia, China, and India are evaluated as having stronger military power than the United Kingdom, Europe’s largest military power, while Korea, Pakistan, and Japan are evaluated as having stronger military power than France, Europe’s second largest military power.
Korea’s military number is over 500,000, the same as that of Britain, Germany, and France combined, and its military industry is world-class.
◆Center of anti-guerrilla warfare
In 2014, NATO member countries pledged to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP, but only 11 of the 31 member countries are expected to achieve this goal this year.
Germany announced plans to invest 100 billion euros immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine, but is expected to achieve only 60% of its target by the end of this year.
During the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, European countries focused on preparing for counter-guerrilla warfare, greatly weakening their ability to conduct large-scale ground battles such as the Ukraine war.
Since around 2005, Putin has publicly stated that his goal is to restore the actual territory of the Soviet Union, including Armenia and Georgia.
But Western countries did not pay attention to Putin’s ambitions for more than a decade. However, Poland, Finland, and the Baltic countries bordering Russia quickly strengthened their military capabilities. Poland’s defense budget is expected to reach 4% of GDP next year. This is almost twice the amount in 2022. Accordingly, Poland is expected to have the strongest conventional forces in Europe within the next two to three years.
Russia’s defense budget is scheduled to increase from 3.9% of GDP this year to 6% next year. It is the highest level since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is estimated that Russia will be able to regain the ability to invade other countries in 3 to 5 years from the end of the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s military industry is also growing rapidly. By October of this year, compared to the same period last year, the production of steel products related to the production of weapons and ammunition increased by 31%, the production of computers, electronic products, and optical products increased by 34%, and the production of special clothing increased by 37%. On the other hand, pharmaceutical production decreased by 2%.
◆Too slow
In European countries where economic growth has stagnated, it is very difficult for politicians to push for increased defense spending. In particular, the fiscal deficit is growing as welfare spending increases rapidly due to the aging population.
Some European officials say that NATO forces are technologically superior to Russia, but it has not been verified whether they can carry out joint operations.
It is true that a small, well-trained military like Ukraine’s can stand up to Russia’s massive military power. However, experts point out that the problem is that Ukraine is greatly inferior to Russia in terms of troops and equipment. The situation could change significantly if the United States stops providing support and Europe’s support capacity is depleted.
The biggest question above all else is whether the European military industry will be given enough time to counter the Russian threat. Even if investments are made immediately, it will take several years to strengthen military capabilities.
Britain is famous for having well-trained troops and the best special forces. However, Britain’s defense spending has remained at 2.2% of GDP since the mid-1980s. Army modernization is progressing belatedly. This is because the purchase of cutting-edge equipment was delayed due to lack of budget.
Former Defense Secretary Ben Wallace recently told parliament that the UK has not been able to field an armored division since the 1991 Gulf War. Additionally, ammunition reserves remain at a minimum.
The UK announced a large increase in defense spending in 2020, but its army strength is scheduled to decrease from 82,000 to 72,500, and it is working to replace 227 tanks with 148 new tanks by 2027. Of the 227 tanks, it is estimated that 157 can be deployed into battle within 30 days, and only 40 can be mobilized immediately.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.