Lula da Silva concludes his first year in government amidst achievements, controversies and great challenges for 2024

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva concludes his first year as president of Brazil with some successes in his portfolio, in particular the reduction of deforestation in the Amazon, but also with controversies and numerous challenges, especially in the face of economic uncertainty reigning.

Elected with less than two points ahead of his far-right predecessor Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022), Lula had a turbulent start to his third term, having led the run of the South American giant between 2003 and 2010, supported by its great popularity.

A week after taking office, thousands of Bolsonaro’s followers invaded the offices of public authorities in Brasilia on January 8, dissatisfied with the left’s victory.

“Lula will face more challenges in this mandate. He had no honeymoon in the first six months and faces a hostile Congress”, with a majority right-wing composition, estimates André Rosa, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

This did not impede his rule relaunch the main social programs, supported by a recovering economy.

According to a survey released this month by the Datafolha institute, Lula, 78 years oldhe has the support of 38% of Brazilians.

The figure is lower than that recorded one year after his first mandate (42%), but exceeds the support obtained by Bolsonaro in the same period, in December 2019 (30%).

“We have arrived at the end of 2023 in a very good situation, I would even say exceptional, if we take into account the state in which we have welcomed this country,” Lula celebrated after the last Council of Ministers meeting of the year.

However, the management budget is full of contrasts.

Positive data

On the bright side, deforestation in the Amazon fell by half between last January and November, compared to the first 11 months of 2022.

For Suely Araujo, of the Climate Observatory – a group of Brazilian non-governmental organizations – this is due to the “intensification of supervision of Ibama”, a public body that had suffered budget and staff cuts under the Bolsonaro government.

Lula, what has promised to end deforestation by 2030It also approved eight new indigenous reserves, seen by scientists as bulwarks against global warming.

But while the situation has improved in the largest rainforest on the planet, it has worsened in the Cerrado, a vast, biodiversity-rich savannah located south of the Amazon.

AND The Lula government has not abandoned oil and gas exploration projects, at the same time it announced its intention to join OPEC+, in the midst of the COP28 climate event.

“Leading on climate issues and integrating OPEC+ are incompatible functions,” Araujo stressed.

Presence on the international board

Official visits to the United States and China, the BRICS summit in South Africa and the G7 summit in Japan: Lula made dozens of trips this year to demonstrate that Brazil was “back” on the international stage.

“He has distinguished himself in improving diplomatic relations, deteriorated by the pandemic and his predecessor,” André Rosa said.

But his statements on sensitive issues have provoked controversies.

He reiterated that Russia and Ukraine are co-responsible for the ongoing war following the invasion launched by Moscow in 2022, said that Israel’s treatment of children and women in Gaza in its response to Hamas attacks was “equal to terrorism” and came to Chavista’s defense. President Nicolás Maduro, describing reports of authoritarianism in Venezuela as a “narrative” of detractors.

The challenge of public finances

So far, the progress of the economy has smiled on the Lula government: GDP has performed better than expected in the first three quarters and growth of 3% is expected in 2023.

Unemployment is at its lowest level since 2015 -dropped to 7.5% in the September/November quarter-, inflation seems to be controlled below 5% and the Central Bank has reduced the reference rate four consecutive times, after months of criticism against Lula for keeping it at 13, 75%.

But with expectations of a slowdown in activity in 2024 (to +1.7%), economists estimate that the government may have problems balancing the public finances.

The year ended with the adoption by Congress of a comprehensive tax reform requested by the business class for over 30 years.

This reform was welcomed by the ratings agency S&P, which raised Brazil’s sovereign debt rating from BB- ​​to BB, as Fitch had done in July.

In 2024 Lula will have to focus on domestic politics, ahead of the municipal elections in October.

And it must also address the problem of citizen insecurity, after a year marked by waves of violence and crime in the states of Rio de Janeiro and Bahia.

Source: AFP