Under a hail of criminal cases, Donald Trump faces the first litmus test in the Republican primaries

Donald Trump will face a litmus test in just over a week as the favorite the most surprising political gamble in the history of the United States with the start of the Republican primaries in Iowa, but it remains to be seen whether Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis will surprise.

Three years after leaving the White House immersed in unimaginable chaos, after the violent assault on the Capitol that marks three years this Saturday, the former president, under four charges, faces voters.

It will be active Iowathe northern US state that has traditionally opened the primary season since 1972.

Trump and his rivals aim to unseat Democratic President Joe Biden from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the White House address in Washington.

“As long as Joe Biden is in the White House, the American dream will be dead”, claims the former president in his campaign events, in which he promises, as in 2016, that he will bring the country “back to its greatness”.

“Danger for democracy”

Trump’s opponents are alarmed because they believe he poses a danger to democracy, especially after he has said on multiple occasions that migrants “poison the blood” of the United States.

But despite the criminal charges, for which he risks prison, the former president enjoys it one of the biggest advantages he has ever seen over his Republican rivals.

In Iowa and the rest of the country, Trump, with his political flair, still has a very loyal base who downplays his swearing and legal problems.

Trump also has an army of volunteers who have been traveling to every corner of this agricultural state for months, distributing brochures, banners and his famous red caps.

Will it be enough to win the first round? The verdict will be announced on January 15 starting at 7pm local time (10pm in Argentina), when voters will gather in schools, libraries and fire stations across the state to elect their candidate by secret ballot.

The former president’s rivals

That night Six more Republicans will try to block Trump’s pathbut only two seem to have any chance of succeeding.

On the one hand, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, the new bet of the American right.

Former governor of South Carolina, this fifty-year-old is the only woman running and one of the few candidates who want to continue supporting Ukraine financially and militarily.

On the other, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, a conservative with radical positions on immigration and abortion.

In his run for the White House, this 40-year-old has focused all his energy on Iowa, visiting each of its 99 counties. The Republican has the precious support of Kim Reynolds, the state governor.

But public opinion towards the former naval officer has plummeted in recent months. They accuse him, among other things, of a lack of charisma.

Polls predict both around 11-12% of the vote, a far cry from the former president’s 60%.

Will there be surprises?

Anyway observers do not exclude that some of them could surprise and cut into the dizzying lead of Trump, who is seeking a landslide victory in Iowa.

From next week the primaries will continue in New Hampshire, on the border with Canada, and in February in Nevada and South Carolina.

One by one, the 50 states of the Union will assign their quotas of delegates to candidates at the national convention in July, which will elect the Republican who will represent the party in the presidential elections in November.

For Trump, 77 years old, The priority is to secure victory before trialssome of which will begin in March.

As for the Democratic Party, outgoing President Joe Biden, 81, should, barring any major surprises, be nominated as candidate in Chicago in August despite criticism over his age.

Two candidates, Congressman Dean Phillips and writer Marianne Williamson, are trying to unseat him, but the chances of success are almost non-existent.

Source: AFP