The day Trump won… Kim Jong-un’s ‘direct nuclear deal’ gamble

[北김정은, 대남관계 [Exclusive]절]

Trump wins majority vote in first Republican primary
Kim Jong-un: Abolishes inter-Korean organizations such as the North Korean Council
“The Constitution of the Republic of Korea is the number one enemy”… A blatant attempt at recognition as a nuclear-weapon state.

Considering the possibility of former U.S. President Donald Trump coming to power, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has completely cut off dialogue with South Korea and has begun a risky gamble of attempting direct transactions with the next U.S. administration to recognize the country as a nuclear weapons state. Chairman Kim’s remarks in his speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly the day before, released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency on the 16th, clearly show this fundamental change in policy. Chairman Kim ordered the constitution to specify that “South Korea is the unchanging main enemy” and the abolition of anti-South Korea organizations such as the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland (Korea Unification Committee). This is a declaration that South Korea is not a partner for any dialogue or exchange, including the North Korean nuclear issue. Chairman Kim criticized the United States, but did not mention cutting off dialogue with the United States. Coincidentally, former President Trump won a landslide victory with a majority of the votes in the Republican Iowa Caucus, the first gateway to the US presidential election, on the 15th (local time).

Chairman Kim’s remarks at a time when former President Trump’s popularity was in full swing, was a new foreign strategy to isolate South Korea and shake up the situation in Korean Peninsula issues by relying on close ties between North Korea and Russia and North Korea and China, with Russian President Vladimir Putin expected to visit North Korea in the near future. It is the beginning of.

Chairman Kim appears to have judged that there is a high possibility that former President Trump will return to power in the US presidential election in November. The authorities also believe that “in this case, he believes that it is possible for him to personally negotiate with former President Trump to freeze the North Korean nuclear program and lift sanctions, and that he is making explicit his intention to seek unification and peace by excluding the Yoon Seok-yeol government from this deal.” Our government’s stance, which focuses on pressure policies against North Korea, may become ambiguous. “As there is a high possibility that the interests of former President Trump and Chairman Kim are aligned, if former President Trump is elected, it will be the biggest challenge to the current administration’s North Korea, foreign and security policies.”

According to the Korean Central News Agency, Chairman Kim said on the 15th, “Remove expressions such as independence, peaceful unification, and great national unity from the Constitution and reflect the content that educates people to regard South Korea as the ‘thorough enemy of the world’ and ‘the unchanging main enemy.’” He instructed. On this day, North Korea abolished the Korea-Pyeong Pass, the National Economic Cooperation Bureau, and the Kumgangsan International Tourism Bureau, which were in charge of inter-Korean talks and exchanges.

Also noteworthy is the part where Chairman Kim said, “Reflect in the Constitution the issue of ‘completely occupying, pacifying, and restoring the Republic of Korea in the event of war and incorporating it into the territory of the Republic.’” This is because, while saying, “Completely eliminate the concept of unification,” he formalized the ‘Kim Jong-un style line of armed unification.’

North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un is presiding over the 10th session of the Supreme People’s Assembly, which is equivalent to our regular National Assembly, at the Mansudae Assembly Hall in Pyongyang on the 15th. According to Rodong Sinmun, North Korea’s official media outlet, on the 16th, Chairman Kim announced that he would specify in the constitution that South Korea is the number one enemy and unchanging main enemy. Rodong Sinmun News 1

In his speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly, Chairman Kim declared a fundamental change in inter-Korean relations, saying that he would not engage in dialogue or exchanges with South Korea, while criticizing the United States for its “anti-DPRK confrontational policy” but did not mention severing dialogue. This is strong evidence that Chairman Kim judged that if former President Trump took office in November, a so-called ‘direct deal between Kim and Trump’, in which the country would be recognized as a nuclear state in exchange for a nuclear freeze and the lifting of sanctions against North Korea, would be possible. Behind the pledge to reflect in the Constitution a fundamental change that completely excludes Korea as a dialogue and exchange partner, there is a hidden intention to exclude Korea under any circumstances from direct negotiations between North Korea and the United States, which are considered possible under Trump’s administration.

In fact, there is a high possibility that Chairman Kim and former President Trump will have aligned interests on the North Korean nuclear issue. Until the so-called ‘Hanoi No Deal’ in 2019, the two were active in direct negotiations. The North Korean nuclear freeze card was a plan discussed by the Trump administration at the time to resume negotiations after a no-deal in Hanoi. The U.S. political media Politico recently reported that “former President Trump is considering a plan to freeze North Korea’s nuclear program.” Former President Trump denied it as “fake news,” but looking at his plan to withdraw from Korean Peninsula issues such as North Korea’s nuclear program and focus on the U.S.-China competition for hegemony, and his actions while in power, the probability is not small. Former President Trump also said at a campaign rally the day before the Iowa caucuses on the 14th, “Chairman Kim is smart and tough. “He got along well with me, so America was safe,” he claimed.

Chairman Kim may have judged that only with former President Trump in power would he be able to crack the trilateral cooperation between Korea, the United States, and Japan, which was greatly strengthened under the U.S. Joe Biden administration, and escape the economic hardship caused by the international community’s sanctions against North Korea. In fact, a source familiar with North Korea said that Chairman Kim persuaded the military that a development strategy of receiving economic support from the United States and other countries was possible in exchange for a freeze on North Korea’s nuclear weapons and sanctions during the first North Korea-US summit in Singapore in 2018. However, right before the Hanoi no-deal, North Korea and the United States made no progress in the details of the negotiations. After the collapse of negotiations, Chairman Kim, furious, abandoned the North Korean nuclear negotiation strategy between North Korea and the United States. Since then, the country has entered the new global Cold War structure and is working closely with Russia and China to strengthen various cooperation and endure the economic crisis. However, this alone is not enough to overcome the worsening economic crisis and allay the complaints of residents.

In this situation, Chairman Kim may have judged that if former President Trump, who is not on good terms with Russian President Vladimir Putin, comes to power, he could shake up the political situation on the Korean Peninsula again. Not only former President Trump, but also Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is active in North Korea-Japan dialogue on the issue of abductees. Experts point out that if former President Trump takes office, it will be seen as possible to destroy trilateral cooperation between Korea, the United States, and Japan and isolate Korea through unification as well as unification with the United States. It is in this context that former Korea Institute for National Unification Director Jeon Seong-hoon said, “This is a signal to talk with the United States and Japan while excluding Korea.”

To achieve this, North Korea is increasing the intensity of its provocations by launching not only a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) within range of the U.S. mainland, but also a new solid-fuel hypersonic missile that will strike the U.S. military base in Guam, where America’s main nuclear power is located. . Even before negotiations between North Korea and the United States began in earnest in 2018 during the administration of former President Trump, North Korea increased the intensity of its provocations to the maximum in 2017. Former President Trump even mentioned the possibility of war at the time. Therefore, Chairman Kim’s recent threat to devastate South Korea and his declaration that he has “no intention of avoiding war” is intended to stimulate this anxiety. For this reason, officials are concerned about the Trump risk, saying, “If Trump takes power, the Yoon Seok-yeol government may be in a difficult situation due to direct dealings between Kim Jong-un and Trump.”

Chairman Kim, who recently defined South Korea as the “main enemy” and a “hostile belligerent country,” ordered on the 15th, “The Three Charters of Fatherland Reunification Monument, which stands unsightly at the southern gate of Pyongyang, should also be demolished.” He also denied the unification policy put forward by his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, and his father, Kim Jong-il. After claiming that the Northern Limit Line (NLL) was “illegal and lawless,” he argued, “If the Republic of Korea violates our territory, airspace, and territorial waters by even 0.001 mm, it will soon be considered a provocation of war.”

The intention is to turn the residents’ dissatisfaction with the system, which is accumulating due to the worsening economic difficulties amid the prolonged international sanctions against North Korea, onto an external enemy, that is, South Korea. This means that as admiration for Korea spread among the residents, dissatisfaction within the system was so great that it had to be turned into hostility toward South Korea. Kim Cheon-sik, director of the Korea Institute for National Unification, also said, “We are pursuing permanent division for the safety of the Kim Jong-un regime.” “It is an attempt to sever inter-Korean relations to prevent admiration for South Korea from spreading among North Korean residents.”

There is also an intention to cause conflict between the South and the South by using the ‘split’ method of placing responsibility for provocations against South Korea on the current government ahead of the general election in April. President Yoon Seok-yeol, as if aware of this, said of Chairman Kim’s remarks, “The North Korean regime is admitting that it is an anti-national and anti-historical group. The threat of ‘war or peace’ no longer works.”

Chairman Kim’s strategy costs a lot of money. The higher the level of provocations against South Korea and the United States, the more resources are invested in weapons development and the economic crisis worsens. This is why a high-ranking government official pointed out, “It could become a vicious cycle that further worsens systemic instability.”

Wanjun Yoon, Political Department Director [email protected]

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.