Case in point where the winner of New Hampshire won the primary and
There are many cases where the Iowa primary results were overturned.
It doesn’t necessarily have a decisive impact on the final victory.
POLITICO reported on the 16th (local time) that although former U.S. President Donald Trump overwhelmingly won the Iowa Republican presidential nomination, the candidate primary is not over yet, and attention is paid to the results of the New Hampshire primary held on the 23rd. It was reported that it would happen.
Politico said that over the past 70 years, there have been quite a few cases where the winner of the New Hampshire primary became the final presidential candidate, but that is not necessarily the case, and presented five scenarios comparing the results of the New Hampshire primary and the results of the final candidate being elected.
◆Cases where victory in New Hampshire was decisive
In the Democratic primary for the 2000 U.S. presidential election, Vice President Al Gore was the frontrunner ahead of Senator Bill Bradley. Bradley, who attempted a reversal by winning in New Hampshire, narrowly lost by just 4 percentage points, but later disappeared from the primary race.
Four years later, in the 2004 Democratic primary, candidate John Kerry won a landslide victory over candidate Howard Dean in Iowa by 12 percentage points, then won New Hampshire, and continued to win ever since.
If Trump securely wins the New Hampshire primary, there is a high possibility that past trends will repeat.
◆Cases that overturned Iowa results
The results of the first week of candidate primaries conducted using the primary method (voting including non-party members) have always overturned the results of the first week conducted using the caucus method (voting by party members).
Former President Ronald Reagan lost the Iowa caucuses to candidate George HW Bush in 1980, but won a landslide victory in the New Hampshire primary. In 1988, Bush, who finished third in Iowa, defeated Bob Dole in New Hampshire and became the final Republican presidential candidate. In the same year, candidate Mike Dukakis, who came in third place in the Iowa Democratic primary, was nominated as the final candidate before the Iowa primary. In 2008, Republican candidate John McCain was nearly wiped out in Iowa, but hit a turning point by winning New Hampshire.
Unlike Iowa, it is unclear whether Trump will win in New Hampshire, a state with few evangelical Christians, strong centrist tendencies, and non-partisan voting.
◆Cases where the victory in New Hampshire and the final candidate’s election were mixed
In the 1968 New Hampshire primary, former President Lyndon Johnson won by an 8% margin. Eugene McCarthy, who lost despite receiving 41% support, announced his withdrawal from the candidacy three weeks later.
In 1972, candidate Ed Muskie won in New Hampshire with a margin of nearly 10%, but failed to secure more than 50% of the votes, and candidate George McGovern, who received 37% of the votes, became the final candidate.
In 1976, candidate Ronald Reagan was defeated by incumbent President Gerald Reagan by 1,341 votes. Contrary to predictions that he would win a landslide victory, candidate Reagan narrowly lost the primary.
In 1992, President Bill Clinton trailed Senate candidate Paul Tsongas by nearly 9%. However, thanks to his evasion of military service and the extramarital affair scandal that attracted significant media attention, he became the final Democratic candidate.
If Haley loses by a narrow margin in New Hampshire, her chances of becoming the Republican candidate are slim. Only by winning big can we deal a blow to Trump.
◆Cases where the frontrunner lost but became the final candidate
In 1984, he received support that far exceeded the incumbent president nationally, but was defeated by candidate Gary Hart in New Hampshire. However, he made up for the loss with wins in Georgia and Alabama. George W. Bush, who was ahead by a large margin in 2000, also lost to candidate John McCain in New Hampshire, but Bush was the final candidate.
This is something to keep in mind if Haley wins in New Hampshire. There are quite a few cases in which other states overturned the results of New Hampshire, the first state to hold primary elections.
In 1984, candidate Walter Mondale won Illinois and New York, making up for his loss in New Hampshire. In 2000, George W. Bush made up for it by winning Georgia, and Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire in 2008, but candidate Barack Obama later made up for it by winning several states one after another. (Obama’s election strategy was that a landslide victory in a state with a small number of voters would be more advantageous than a narrow victory in a state with a large number of voters.)
Even if Trump loses in New Hampshire, the impact on the Republican nomination will not be significant.
◆New Hampshire results alone cannot predict final victory
In the last presidential election, the results of the New Hampshire primary had no effect on the final victory. In 2020, President Joe Biden placed 4th in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire, and candidate Bernie Sanders caused a sensation.
However, when Biden won a landslide victory by a ratio of 2.5 to 1 in South Carolina, which has many black voters, candidates Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg resigned and supported Biden, and Biden won nationally in the Super Tuesday election. He turned the tide of the war. Biden, who was said to be sure to lose, became the leading candidate for election in just 96 hours.
Considering the Republican Party’s support for Trump, even if Haley wins New Hampshire, it is highly likely that it will have no more than a speed bump on Trump’s candidacy. However, it cannot be said that Trump’s election is guaranteed.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.