Former US President Donald Trump, the leading presidential candidate of the US Republican Party, solidified his position as the Republican presidential candidate by winning an overwhelming victory in the first primary, the Iowa caucus.
Former President Trump is expected to face the test of whether he can completely defeat former Ambassador Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, the second primary, and repeat his victory in Iowa.
According to foreign news reports on the 16th (local time), the Republican Party will hold a primary in New Hampshire on the 23rd.
Although the New Hampshire primary has only 22 delegates to secure, it is evaluated as another ‘presidential weathervane’ along with the Iowa caucuses.
Accordingly, attention is focused on whether former President Donald Trump, who won a landslide victory with a ‘majority of votes’ in the Iowa caucuses, will solidify his position as a general candidate through the New Hampshire primary.
First of all, former Ambassador Haley narrowed the approval rating gap with former President Trump in New Hampshire to 7 percentage points (p), but has recently slowed down again.
According to a CNN/UNH poll conducted on the 4th to 8th, former Ambassador Haley’s approval rating was 32%, only 7% different from former President Trump (39%).
Former Ambassador Haley received an approval rating of 31% in a St. Anselm College opinion poll conducted over two days starting on the 8th, widening the gap with former President Trump (45%) to 14 percentage points.
In a public opinion poll jointly conducted by WHDH-TV and Emerson College on the 8th to 10th, the difference in approval ratings between the two figures was up to 16% points.
Moreover, as candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who had recorded an approval rating of 4-5% in various New Hampshire primary opinion polls, resigned from his candidacy after the Iowa caucuses and declared his support for former President Trump, there is a possibility that former President Trump will absorb his approval rating. big.
However, unlike the caucuses held in Iowa, independent voters in addition to Republican Party members can participate in the primary held in New Hampshire. Because of this, it is expected that former Ambassador Haley will do well in New Hampshire.
Tom Rath, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire, told Reuters: “Trump is strongest in an extremely partisan Republican environment,” and “(New Hampshire) is a problem for him to the extent that it dilutes that.”
Former President Trump is receiving strong support from MAGA (short for Make America Great Again). It is reported that hard-line Trump supporters within the Republican Party amount to 37%.
Political consultant Louis Perron also told AFP, “The New Hampshire primary means that even independents can participate in the Republican primary,” adding, “This terrain is much more familiar to Haley.”
The fact that former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who campaigned with an anti-Trump tone, suddenly resigned is also good news for former Ambassador Haley.
Former Governor Christie had maintained third place in the New Hampshire Republican primary, securing an approval rating of 9-12% before his resignation. If former Ambassador Haley can absorb former Governor Christie’s support base, she could compete with former President Trump.
However, as former Governor Christie has claimed to be a ‘Trump sniper’, former Ambassador Haley must conduct a careful campaign to secure supporters. If the election campaign is read as anti-Trump, the Republican Party’s support base, centered on hard-line conservatives, may be lost.
Mike Dennehy, a New Hampshire Republican strategist, told POLITICO: “Haley will have to walk a very narrow path to attract independent voters without losing the small number of Republican voters she has.”
“He cannot use nuclear weapons against Donald Trump,” he said, adding, “If he does so, he will lose the support of the current Republican Party.”
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.