A pro-Russian soldier in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. Photo by Reuters
What will happen if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides tomorrow to suspend gas shipments across Europe as he did this week in Poland and Bulgaria? Will there be enough reserves to continue with current consumption? The short answer is no. The length is also no.
Gas reserves in Europe have never been so low in recent years. And it’s not just lack of foresight, it’s that Gazprom has been sending less gas since the war began. As a geopolitical weapon that is, energy is used by Russia to put pressure on Europeans and above all to try to divide them.
As Europeans try to reduce their reliance on hydrocarbons from Moscow at full speed, Russia is pushing back by slowly turning off the taps.
The Euro-Russian game of hydrocarbons is asymmetrical. Gas costs only a quarter of European payments to Russia for hydrocarbons (the other three quarters are for oil), but finding other gas suppliers is more complicated because gas pipelines could not be built from the Persian Gulf or the United States.
The cost
That gas must be smelted to be sent to methane tankers and re-gasified in Europe. It is more expensivemore complex logistics and harder to reach volumes coming through gas pipelines.
The Gazprom building in Saint Petersburg, Russia. Photo EFE
If Europe moves faster and faster to stop buying Russian oil (political authorization could already be granted this Monday), Moscow is tightening up by slowly closing gas taps.
The war began on February 24. For several days, supplies continued at normal rates, close to 400 million cubic meters per day. But since then they have diminished until they remain in recent days below 300 million cubic meters.
Subtraction is not the same for everyone. Shipments via Nordstream I, direct to Germany, stay at normal levels but those passing through gas pipelines running to Belarus and Ukraine dropped by less than half.
Those reductions increase the price due to lower supply. The Dutch TTF, the reference price for gas futures, rose again this week above 125 euros Mwh when it fell in recent weeks to 90 euros Mwh. It was still far from the peak of February, when it paid more than 220 euros.
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Source: Clarin
