There is a politician who has been waiting for his star moment for 13 years and has run in the party presidential election four times. This is Shigeru Ishiba, former secretary-general of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
In 2018, during the one-power system of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, he ran for the governorship election and competed in his own way with the support of local party members and party allies, but was pushed out and lost in the vote battle within the National Assembly.
After that, I walked a non-mainstream path for a long time. In 2021, he was forced to disband the faction within the party he led and reduce it to group level. This is a humiliating treatment considering the political culture in which mainstream politicians within the party use their own factions to build their support base.
For him, an opportunity came again in 2023. This is because illegal political funding scandals have erupted one after another in the mainstream faction within the Liberal Democratic Party.
◇Ishiba without factional risk, strengthening its power in the local district
While those involved, including the Abe faction, the largest faction within the Liberal Democratic Party, as well as the Kishida faction and Nikai faction, are being investigated by the prosecution, former secretary-general Ishiba claimed to be a ruling party sniper from the beginning of the suspicion.
Previously known as ‘Mr. Danji (クレ?マ?)’ and serving as an opposition member within the ruling party, he began to publicly discuss the ‘resignation of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’ in December. After the 2024 budget is sorted out in the regular National Assembly, he must take responsibility and resign from his position as prime minister or dissolve the House of Representatives.
It started in earnest on the 31st of last month. Former secretary-general Ishiba announced that he would hold a meeting of the group he led called Suigetsukai and resume study groups. The Tokyo Shimbun interpreted that he “appears to be trying to solidify his position within the party considering the presidential election following the expiration of Prime Minister Kishida’s term as party president in September.”
At a press conference held on the 10th of this month in Tottori Prefecture(?), he expressed his intention to run for president in earnest. According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, regarding the presidential election, he said, “We must be prepared so that no matter when or what happens,” he added, “I want to change Japan from (hometown) Tottori to the Liberal Democratic Party. “I want to spend the year solving various Japanese challenges,” he said. This is the fifth entry ticket.
◇Is it a stellar moment or a rehash of the 10,000-year candidate?
This is the perfect time for former Secretary General Ishiba, both in terms of the situation and public opinion.
Prime Minister Kishida’s approval rating has been at the bottom of the 20% range for four consecutive months, and the ruling party’s approval rating is also at its lowest level since it regained power in 2012. However, there is no ruling party that can rival the Liberal Democratic Party, so it is highly likely that the next prime minister will ultimately come from within the Liberal Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, in public opinion polls asking about the ‘next prime minister’, former Secretary General Ishiba’s name is at the top regardless of media outlet.
If there is an obstacle, it is that the support base within the party is weak. As if conscious of this, they quickly expanded the number of study group participants from ‘in-group’ members to external members. Someone belonging to the Ishiba Group told the Asahi Shimbun, “The strategy for the presidential election is important. “We must take action to figure out how to gather comrades,” he said.
In addition, former Secretary General Ishiba had a meal with former General Affairs Minister Seiko Noda (non-factional) and Digital Minister Taro Kono (affiliated with Asofa) from January to this month.
However, despite these efforts, the party’s popularity does not appear to be increasing. According to Asahi, he was so absorbed in bashing his allies that even a former Ishiba faction official said, “I have said several times that even if it is a correct opinion, one should refrain from acting like an opposition member…” “It’s enough to lament.”
The attention of Naganacho (Japanese politics) is on former Secretary General Ishiba as to whether he will be able to seize the star moment this time by narrowing the gap between the public’s favorable opinion as “a person who says what he wants to say” and the harsh criticism within the party as “a person who shoots cannonballs from behind”. It’s turning.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.