‘Korea-US FTA Negotiations’ Wendy Cutler, Former USTR Deputy Representative
“Public economic security is a top priority for any administration.”
“Imposing a 10% tariff on FTA countries is a violation of the agreement.”
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has solidified his position as the Republican presidential candidate by defeating former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley by a wide margin in the South Carolina primary, and has announced that when former President Trump returns to power, he will pursue economic separation by raising trade barriers with China. There was a view.
If the United States initiates a full-scale de-coupling (separation of supply chain) from China, it is likely to have a negative impact on Korea, which has deep economic ties with China.
Wendy Cutler, Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute and former Deputy Representative of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), made this prediction in an interview on current issues hosted by the Washington Trade Center of KOTRA (Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency) on the 22nd (local time).
Vice Chairman Cutler said, “It is still too early to guess who will be in the White House next January,” but added, “If former President Trump wins again, we can expect more decoupling efforts.”
“He strongly believes that we need more decoupling and that we really need to disconnect our economy from China,” he explained, referring to former USTR Representative Robert Lighthizer, who is considered a key economic adviser to former President Trump.
He predicted, “Currently, people are calling decoupling derisking, but we will return to discussing decoupling again.”
The current Joe Biden administration has also put the brakes on economic relations with China by controlling exports of advanced semiconductors and reducing dependence on key minerals. The Biden administration has argued that it is not decoupling, but de-risking in terms of economic security, but Vice Chairman Cutler predicts that if former President Trump takes office, a more aggressive economic separation between the United States and China is expected beyond the security field.
After mentioning former President Trump’s announcement that he would impose a universal tariff of 10% on all imported goods, he said, “We are also talking about sharply raising the tariff on Chinese imports to about 60%.”
He continued, “If you add 60% to the current 25% tariff, it becomes 85%, and these are called ‘banned tariffs.’ “If tariffs get that high, we won’t be able to sell our products to the U.S.,” he predicted. “This will bring back the term of serious decoupling between the U.S. and China.”
However, he said, “I think the emphasis on economic security will continue,” regardless of which administration takes office, not former President Trump. “Global geopolitical tensions, China’s direction under President Xi Jinping’s regime, China’s desire to reduce dependence on the United States, “Given the U.S. sentiment to reduce dependence on China, policymakers will make economic security issues a top priority.”
When asked whether he thought former President Trump’s 10% flat tariff would also apply to countries that signed free trade agreements (FTAs), he said, “It is unclear,” and added, “(If applied), in my opinion, it would be a violation of obligations under the free trade agreements.” “It is clear,” he said.
Former Representative Cutler was the chief representative of the US side during the first Korea-US FTA negotiations in 2006-2007.
He said, “The FTA was renegotiated under the Trump administration, so they also have a share in this agreement. “Even if we see flaws in the agreement, we cannot blame the past administration,” he pointed out.
On the other hand, it was assessed that former President Trump’s uniform tariff imposition policy would make it difficult for the United States to cooperate with its allies to confront China’s challenge.
Former Representative Cutler said, “If former President Trump were to put on the table a policy of imposing a uniform 10% tariff on all imports in the first month after being elected, it would bring great confusion to the multilateral trade system,” adding, “This will also lead to great confusion on issues where we need help.” “It will make cooperation with allies and partners difficult,” he predicted.
He said, “Although such a policy is being discussed during the election campaign, I hope that if former President Trump is elected, that policy will disappear.”
Foreign countries concerned about Trump risks should “closely examine potential measures that could be detrimental to their country and find ways to mitigate the impact of such actions,” he advised.
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Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.