GDP growth target of 5% expected to be announced
Economic Command Tower Li Chang Business Report Debut
Possibility of replacement of concurrent Foreign Minister Wang Yi
Taiwan’s Lai Ching-deen sends hard-line message
China’s largest annual political event, the Two Sessions (National People’s Congress and National People’s Political Consultative Conference), will open on the 4th, three days later. For Chinese President Xi Jinping, who formalized his third term in office last year, this is the second two sessions in his third term in office.
The current internal and external environment facing President Xi and the Chinese Communist Party is not easy. The United States, which is competing for hegemony, is controlling investment as well as exports of various products to prevent cutting-edge technologies such as semiconductors from flowing into China. Internally, the real estate recession is worsening, raising concerns about deflation (falling prices during an economic recession). In addition, the pro-American and independence-oriented Lai Ching-de, who is considered a thorn in the side, was elected as Taiwan’s president, and the cross-Strait conflict (China and Taiwan) is becoming more and more intense. For this reason, the world’s attention is focused on what message China will present at these two sessions.
The two sessions, which generally last for about 10 days, are opened first by the National People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which can be considered a policy advisory body. The next day, on the 5th, the National People’s Congress (National People’s Congress), the highest deliberation and decision-making body equivalent to the National Assembly of our country, will be held.
At the opening ceremony of the National People’s Congress on the 5th, the Prime Minister will report on government work. The main key is China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate target for this year, which will be revealed at this event. China announced the target at 5% (around 5%) last year, and recently announced that it had achieved 5.2%. There is analysis within China that similar targets will be set this year as well. This is because lowering it below 5% could increase Chinese people’s anxiety about economic recession.
But the perspective from outside China is different. International organizations and Western foreign media are predicting China’s growth rate this year to be around 4.5%, where the real estate market and consumer sentiment are not recovering. Therefore, attention is being paid to whether China will introduce strong economic stimulus measures to achieve the target.
Experts point out that in addition to the reduction in the base mortgage loan interest rate announced on the 20th, additional measures, such as support measures that provide cash directly to households, are needed. Reuters reported, “If we set a similar goal to last year without a new policy to redirect support from infrastructure and manufacturing to households, there is a risk of harming trust rather than increasing it.”
Attention is also focused on Prime Minister Li Chang, who is making his first official report and debut. With the establishment of Xi Jinping’s one-man system, Premier Li’s presence has decreased significantly compared to that of the late former Premier Li Keqiang, but these two sessions can serve as a stage to demonstrate his capabilities and solutions as a command center leading the Chinese economy.
The National People’s Congress Standing Committee announced on the 27th, “Former Foreign Minister Qin Gang is resigning as a representative of the National People’s Congress.” Former Foreign Minister Qin was quickly promoted to Minister of Foreign Affairs with President Xi’s favor, and was a symbolic figure of ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ that showed off power. However, after he was suddenly dismissed from office in July of last year, seven months after taking office, rumors of his disappearance and even death circulated.
Until now, Wang Yi, Director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Communist Party of China, has been serving concurrently as Minister of Foreign Affairs, but there is a possibility that he will be replaced through these two sessions. Liu Jianchao, head of the Department of External Affairs, who recently visited the United States and met with U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken, is mentioned as a strong candidate. Successors to high-ranking members of the Rocket Force who have fallen out of service since last year may also be announced.
Ahead of President-elect Lai, who is pro-American and independent, takes office in May, it is expected that a strong message regarding cross-Strait relations will be delivered at these two sessions. In fact, Chairman Wang Huning (王滬寧), China’s fourth-highest ranking Chinese Communist Party member, recently said at the Taiwan Work Conference, “We must resolutely strike the forces that divide Taiwan’s independence.” ‘Blow’ is a much stronger expression than ‘opposition’ mentioned last year. Taiwan’s Lian Hebo predicted, “This year’s speech will further strengthen the pressure against (Taiwan) independence and the promotion of unification.”
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.