Russian presidential election 2024: why does this election matter?

Why is this choice important?

The Russian presidential vote, which began Friday and runs through Sunday, has elements of a horse race, but is more of a predetermined, Soviet-style referendum.

President Vladimir Putin71 years old, he will undoubtedly win a fifth term, and none of the other three candidates allowed to appear on the ballot will pose a real challenge.

The main opposition figure who worked to ruin the vote, Alexei Navalnya harsh critic of Putin and the war in Ukraine, died last month in an Arctic prison.

However, the vote is important for Putin because it is a way to consolidate his legitimacy and renew his preferred image as the embodiment of security and stability.

That image was tarnished when the war, presented as a quick operation to overthrow the Kiev government, turned into a slogan that claimed hundreds of thousands of victims, broke relations with the West and ushered in a the harshest internal repression.

“The Kremlin has to demonstrate enormous popular support, and that support has increased since the beginning of the war,” said Nikolay Petrov, a Russian political scientist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.

Is Putin facing serious challenges?

The Kremlin regularly ensures that Putin faces no real competition.

The other candidates – all members of the State Duma, the Russian parliament – ​​voted for war in Ukraine, for greater censorship and for laws restricting gay rights.

Nikolai Kharitonov, 75, of the Communist Party, had already lost heavily to Putin in 2004.

Leonid Slutsky, 56, of the Liberal Democratic Party, a nationalist group loyal to Putin, said he would not mobilize voters against the president.

Vladislav A. Davankov, 40, of the New People’s Party, is nominally liberal and has called for “peace” in Ukraine, but essentially supported Putin.

Two anti-war candidates were disqualified. A veteran politician, Boris Nadezhdin, alarmed the Putin administration when tens of thousands of people across Russia lined up to sign the petitions needed for his candidacy. The Kremlin invalidated enough signatures to ban it.

Will the Kremlin manipulate the results?

Russia held actual elections for about a decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Since then, the Kremlin has used various social, geographic, and technical levers to ensure that its candidate received an overwhelming majority.

Although Putin enjoys some support, the Kremlin has long tried to claim that he received more than 50% support in the vote, and even more support than in any previous vote.

This year means overcoming 56 million votes what authorities said they received in 2018; Experts bet on 60 million.

Two important changes could increase the opacity of the vote.

On the one hand, voting will take place in the so-called “new territories”, the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow annexed without completely controlling them.

Russian election officials say the area does 4.5 million votersan accident that is practically impossible to monitor in the middle of a war.

“We cannot verify the numbers there and the authorities will use them as they want,” said Alexander V. Kynev, an independent election expert in Moscow.

Additionally, the ability to vote online will be more widely available, with electronic voters in 29 regions on a huge list, ifn means verify where and how they voted, Kynev noted.

In a diversified and expanding country like Russia, the Kremlin can also use more traditional means.

Regions dominated by ethnic strongmen, such as the Caucasus, generally see high voter turnout, with Putin receiving 99% of the vote, even though relatively few people show up at polling stations.

Areas where state industries are prevalent also tend to report strong support for the president.

To vote, some polling stations organize lotteries with prizes such as household appliances or firewood.

One region of Siberia offers 16,000 prizes.

But the Kremlin has to rely on some votes in big cities, and that can be difficult.

Excessive manipulation has created discomfort in the past.

There might be a little more manipulation this year because election observers are prohibited unless candidates issue credentials.

Can the Russians protest?

With street demonstrations banned, some Putin opponents hope to cast protest votes.

The easiest way to reduce their number is to vote for someone else, experts say.

“Noon against Putin,” the campaign promoted by Navalny’s organization, suggests a crowd at polling stations on Sunday at noon.

But there are a number of obstacles, including possible clashes with police.

Furthermore, in previous voting, few polling places had more than 3,000 registered voters and many had fewer than 1,000.

“It is technically very complicated to create a crowd,” said David Kankiia, an analyst at election watchdog Golos, which is banned in Russia.

Can Putin remain president for life?

Since the president’s successor was first designated Boris Yeltsin in 2000,

Putin said the Russian Constitution would determine the length of his term in office.

He then went on to rewrite the Constitution.

When asked in 2014 whether he would remain president forever, Putin replied:

“This is not good and it is bad for the country and I don’t need it either,” before adding:

“We will see how the situation will be, but in any case the duration of my work is limited by the Constitution.”

In 2008, when mandate limitations forced him to resign, he became one Prime Minister during the presidency of Dmitry Medvedevalthough Putin remained in power behind the throne until he regained the highest office in 2014.

Presidential terms were extended to six years before the 2018 vote, and then in 2020 Putin changed the constitution again to redefine the length of his term.

He can currently serve at least two terms until 2036.

If Putin holds on, he will soon surpass Josef Stalin’s record of 29 years of rule.

When will the results of the vote be known?

The count is expected to be announced Sunday evening Moscow time.

c.2024 The New York Times Company