May 9 is one of the most important dates in Russia. This is the day he commemorates his victory against Nazi Germany in 1945. And among the Russians engaged in a completely different battle in Ukraine today, speculation is rife about what he plans to celebrate today “Victory Day “.
Some Western experts and representatives expect Vladimir Putin to use the symbol represented by May 9 to announce an important military victory or an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine.
there is good reason to believe that the Russians will do everything they can to use it on May 9 for propagandistic purposes, launched on Monday by the spokesman for American diplomacy, Ned Price.
” The Russians doubled their propaganda efforts perhaps, almost certainly, as a distraction from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield in Ukraine. “
Some even think that Putin could officially declare war on Ukraine, a conflict he now calls special military operations. He can simultaneously trigger martial law, suspend elections and further focus power in his hands.
But this is the most difficult scenarioexplained to CNN Oleg Ignatov, analyst at International Crisis Groupa NGO aims to prevent and resolve deadly conflicts.
A national mobilization?
Another option for Putin is the enactment of the National Mobilization Law, which allows him to trigger general or partial military mobilization. in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation or direct threat of aggression.
This will allow the government to gather troops and call in reservists or even civilians who have received military training.
It’s hard to know exactly how many Russian soldiers died in Ukraine, but the Kremlin recently admitted “significant losses”.
Reinforcements are therefore likely to be needed for Russia to achieve its goals in Ukraine, James Nixey, director of the Russia Program at Chatham House, a London -based think tank, told CNN.
But these two scenarios are dangerous for Putin, believes Oleg Ignatov. This will change the whole narrative of the Kremlinhe said, adding that he would be forced to acknowledge that the invasion of Ukraine was not happening according to plan.
This may even weaken the support of the population for Putin, because many Russians approve of the offensive in Ukraine, but do not want to go to the front, believes Oleg Ignatov.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, also denied these speculations.
” There is no chance of that happening. It makes no sense. “
To clean up Mariupol to celebrate May 9
Another speculation surrounding the May 9 celebrations is Russia’s planning of a military parade in the besieged city of Mariupol, according to Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR).
The deputy director of the Russian presidential administration, Sergei Kirienki, is said to have also arrived in Mariupol. The main mission of the leader of Mr. Putin is to prepare for the May 9 ceremonyreads a statement from the GUR in the Telegram.
Mariupol will be the center of the celebration, it is written. The city’s main thoroughfares were cleaned during the emergency, the remains and the bodies of the dead were removed, as well as ammunition that did not explode.
” They withhold all evidence of the crimes they committed. They provide food to the local population in exchange for their work. “
When asked about preparations for May 9, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu did not explicitly mention the possibility of such a parade in Mariupol.
This year, military parades will be held in 28 cities of Russiahe said, adding that about 65,000 people, about 2,400 types of weapons and military equipment and more than 460 aircraft will be mobilized this year.
Mariupol is almost entirely under Russian military control. Only the immense Azovstal metallurgical complex, where the last Ukrainian fighters and civilians were buried, has not yet been fully captured by Moscow forces.
According to Ukrainian authorities, the Russians launched an attack on the site on Tuesday, but the Kremlin denied this information.
Source: Radio-Canada
