The Iranian threat: France withdraws diplomats and their families from Iran and asks its citizens to “refrain” from traveling to the region

France drives diplomats and family members away from Iran. It is calling on its French citizens to “refrain” from traveling to Iran, Israel, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories this Friday after a “crisis meeting”.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked French citizens to do so this Friday do not travel “in the next few days” to the regionwhich experiences strong tensions linked to the war between Israel and Hamas.

As the likelihood of an expanded war continues to rise in the Middle East after months of conflict between the Jewish state and Hamas, the French are being asked to avoid any travel there.

Do not travel to Israel, Palestine or Iran

The Quai d’Orsay “recommends the French to absolutely refrain from visits in the coming days”, reads a short press release, after a “crisis meeting”.

The head of French diplomacy, Stéphane Séjourné, also decided to ban “missions of French officials to the same countries”. He calls for the “return of the families of Tehran’s diplomatic agents”, given “the risks of military escalation in the Middle East”.

It recommends not traveling to Israel, but also strongly asks French citizens not to travel to several neighboring countries.

The United States limits diplomatic movement in Israel

Paris is not the only one to raise the alert level: the United States announced on Thursday that it will limit the movements of diplomatic staff in Israel “for security reasons”, for fear of Iranian retaliation.

“The security environment remains complex and may evolve rapidly, depending on the political situation and recent developments,” the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem said.

The United States would join Israel in a counterattack if Iran decided to attack the Jewish state directly.

Russia has asked its citizens not to travel to the Middle East. Britain has decided to speak directly to Iran and urge caution. Foreign Minister David Cameron spoke last night with his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian

Iran sends messages to the United States

“A probable retaliatory attack against Israel will be calculated with the aim of avoiding an escalation

important,” Iranian sources told the Reuters news agency.

They say this has been communicated to the United States and that Iran will not act hastily.

Iran has threatened a response to the alleged Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, in which a senior Iranian commander was killed.

Iran’s message to Washington was conveyed on Sunday by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian during a visit to the Gulf Arab state of Oman, who has often acted as an intermediary between Tehran and Washington, the sources said.

The White House declined to comment on any messages from Iran. Although they said the US told Iran it was not involved in the consulate attack.

A source close to U.S. intelligence was unaware of the message transmitted through Oman. But he said Iran was “very clear” that its response to the attack on Damascus would be “controlled” and “without escalation.”

They added that Iran intended to “use regional proxies to launch a series of attacks against Israel.”

Iran has been weighing its response for nearly two weeks as it appears not to want a wider war in the Middle East.

What would Iranian retaliation look like?

Iranian “retaliation” will come following the Israeli missile attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, where 2 Quds commanders, Iranian elite guards and 15 other people died. One of the commanders was on the board of directors of Hezbollah, a Lebanese “delegate” for Iran, and could participate in the retaliatory attack, announced by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

So far, there is debate as to whether the retaliation will be carried out directly by Iran or by Hezbollah. This would imply transferring the war to Lebanon, which already suffered it in 2006. The Lebanese do not accept a new war and this is the risk for Hezbollah, which is a political party and militia in Lebanon.

The conflict has continued for more than six months in the Gaza Strip, where the humanitarian situation is worrying. The UN on Thursday again called on Israel to do more to “provide the necessary humanitarian aid given the scale of the needs in Gaza.” The truce plan continues to fail as mediating countries await responses from Tel Aviv and Hamas to the latest proposed deal.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also stands by his plan for a ground offensive in the territory

The city of Rafah, south of the enclave, is considered the last major bastion of Hamas and the United States opposes this offensive due to the risk of many civilian deaths.

The Supreme Ayatollah’s warning

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose enemy Tel Aviv supports Hamas, said Wednesday that Israel will be “punished” after the deadly April 1 attack blamed on it in Syria.

“If Iran carries out an attack from its territory, Israel will respond and attack Iran,” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz responded, as calls for restraint grew.

There is “a pre-war situation” between the two countries. Missiles, drones, the threat of an Iranian attack on Israel is increasingly clear.

Bibi and Biden

The Jewish state has recently intensified its attacks in Syria, where it has mainly targeted pro-Iranian groups, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, and Iranian military targets. These pro-Iranian groups from Lebanon, but also from Iraq or Yemen, carry out attacks against Israeli and American targets to support Hamas.

Extending the war to Lebanon is an ambition of Prime Minister “Bibi” Netanyahu to avoid having to do so

the abandonment of power, as requested by the families of the hostages and the calling of immediate elections.

The scenario of a war with Iran represents a serious problem for President Joe Biden, who is in the midst of the election campaign. 60% of Israeli military aid depends on the United States and the relationship between him and the Israeli prime minister is disastrous.