According to a study, a sudden stop in Russia’s natural gas deliveries could trigger a recession in Germany comparable to the economic crisis years of 2020 and 2009.

Such an embargo, whether triggered by the European Union or Russia, would result in a reduction in production between €114 billion and €286 billion in the first 12 months, corresponding to about 3% to 8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). , said the IMK institute.

Economist Tom Krebs’ study also said that economic output in Europe’s largest economy could drop another 2-4% due to falling demand due to higher energy prices.

Krebs warned that a sudden gas embargo could trigger a recession similar to that seen in the first year of the pandemic or the 2009 financial crisis. “It could also lead to an economic crisis that (West) Germany has not seen since World War II,” he said.

The University of Mannheim economist found that six German industries are particularly dependent on natural gas: chemicals, especially basic chemicals; production and processing of metals, as well as foundry, glass and ceramics; foods; paper; mechanical engineering and vehicle manufacturing.

“For these industrial sectors, natural gas is an important input in the production process and is difficult to replace,” Krebs said.