London The Victory Parade in Russia on May 9 inspired one of the craziest passages in the world since the end of the Second World War, a celebration that has been carefully followed by the global media today to decipher Vladimir Putin’s messages to the world. A book cited as a reference to the expansionism of the Russian president.

The “Third Empire: Russia as it should be” predicted the semi-annexation of the separatist regions of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the annexation of Crimea, the attack on the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the current occupation of Ukraine. . . .

Set in the year 2054 and told by a fictional Brazilian historian, the triumphal story of the character “Vladimir II the Restorer” ends with a Victory Parade quite different from what is happening today: the stars are defeated and Hollywood politicians, celebrities and artists are handcuffed. .

Victory Parade in Russia is no surprise

At least for now, the assumed projection has not materialized, as the book would be a celebration of the victory of the Third World War.

The Victory Parade in Russia (9) took place in Moscow early in the morning on Monday, with officers, soldiers, a display of military vehicles and a speech by Vladimir Putin blaming NATO for the invasion of Ukraine.

However, this does not mean that the book should be taken lightly, in the opinion of historians and political analysts watching the situation in the war in Ukraine.

Released in 2006 for Dina Khapaeva, director of the Russian Studies program at Georgia Tech’s School of Modern Languages, “The Third Empire: Russia as It Should Be” predicts the Kremlin’s maneuvers with astonishing accuracy and will inspire Vladimir’s expansionism. Putin.

Khapaeva’s article titled “Putin Follows the Playbook”, published in the US magazine The Atlantic in March, again drew attention to the book. Its author, Mikhail Yuriev, knew Vladimir Putin personally.

Yuriev, who passed away in 2019, was a businessman, deputy speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament, and a member of the political council of the Eurasian Party, which envisioned a feudal social order controlled by a political class ruled by fear.

The book became known outside of Russia in 2014 when the American political scientist Maria Snegovaya mentioned it after her prediction of the annexation of Crimea came true. Since then, other passages have also come true, such as the war in Ukraine.

Politicians handcuffed at Victory Parade

In the book, all these events lead to the Third World War, which Russia won and celebrated with a very different Victory Parade from today.

Handcuffed and with plaques on their necks, the attendees are representatives of the North American elite: then President III. George Bush, former presidents, politicians, businessmen, singers and Hollywood artists.

Khapaeva explains that the passage of the Victory Parade sends the message that Russia can defeat not only the US military, but also American civilization itself, going beyond expansionism over neighboring lands.

Although exaggerated, for Khapaeva the book offers important insights into the Kremlin mentality, how Putin thinks about the West, and his attitude towards neighboring countries:

“Understanding Russia’s expansionist vision is central to Western decisions regarding the current invasion: Ukraine is not Putin’s only goal.”

Vladimir II the Restorer

The Brazilian historian, who plays the role of the narrator in the work, begins by telling how the world came under Russian domination after Russia defeated the USA and Europe and established a new world order.

III in the book. World War II is presented as a consequence of the invasion of Ukraine – with the victory of Russia, of course, thanks to a secret weapon that would make it invincible in a nuclear conflict.

The Third Empire envisages the use of nuclear blackmail and Europe’s energy dependence in order for Russia to achieve its expansionist goals.

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The Russian conquests give rise to the title of Third Empire, after the first of the tsars and second from the Soviet Union era. And all thanks to the actions of “Vladimir II the Restorer”.

The narrator describes how at the beginning of the Third Empire, a pro-Russian uprising took place in Ukraine, sponsored by the Kremlin. Their goals were “reunification with Russia and abandonment of European integration, as well as rejection of the anti-Russian NATO bloc.”

This uprising results in an undeclared war as Russian troops enter Ukraine, a similar story the world has seen since February.

This causes nine regions in eastern and southern Ukraine – including Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk and other areas today occupied by the Russians – to declare “do not recognize the authorities and the Ukrainian state” and pro-Russian “Donetsk-Black Sea”. Republic”. -Russia.

The enlargement was approved by a referendum of the received areas, with 82% of the population voting in favor of participation. In Russia, 93% vote for “admission to Eastern Ukraine”.

The book also predicted the West’s passivity towards the occupation of Crimea and separatist regions. As a matter of fact, the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 were mild.

As a result of the First Enlargement, the narrator reports that Vladimir II seized the opportunity to create the Union of Russia, which included Belarus, parts of Central Asia, and several breakaway territories of the former Soviet republics.

Narrator, II. It explains that the resurrection of Russia, initiated by Vladimir, was completed by his successor, Gavriil the Great.

In the book, Gavriil categorically denies Ukrainians and Belarusians the status of separate nations. According to him, attempts to see them as separate ethnicities from Russia are “part of the West’s plan to destroy Russia”.

Dina Khapaeva, director of the Russian Studies program at Georgia Tech’s School of Modern Languages, in an article in The Atlantic titled “Putin Follows the Playbook,” reminds us that these claims are no different from those of the Kremlin leader. That Ukraine “is not even a state” since 2008.

Putin used the book argument to justify the annexation of Crimea

In the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia used the same strategy as the referendum outlined in the book to legitimize acquiring the land.

And both in the Crimea and in the attack on Donetsk and Luhansk, as mentioned in the book, Russian forces captured Ukrainian territory under the guise of supporting local separatist movements.

Khapaeva points out in her article that Russia recognized the independence of the separatist republics three days before invading Ukraine. Echoing the description of Crimea, one rebel leader in these republics said he hopes to hold a referendum on the issue soon.

Khapaeva classifies both the book and Putin’s war with Ukraine as expressions of “post-Soviet neo-medievalism”:

They are the fruits of an anti-Western and anti-democratic ideology that attributes a dominant role to ‘Russian Orthodox civilization’ over Europe and America.”

Nuclear blackmail to facilitate proliferation

In the book, Yuriev did not foresee the real-life Western bloc backlash and heavy sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine, but he did foresee the use of nuclear blackmail as a weapon in Putin’s expansionism.

In the Third Empire, Russia won the Third World War due to the Western nations’ fear of a nuclear hekatomb.

“American leaders hesitated to order an attack,” Yuriev writes, “and the Russians have made it clear that they are willing to go all the way.”

Khapaeva analyzes that in Putin’s expansionism, Yuriev relied on the accuracy of his prediction.

Shortly after the start of the Ukraine war, other countries threatened to use nuclear weapons if they tried to get involved.

Yuriev also predicted that Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas resources could be used as leverage against backlash against Putin’s expansionism.

In a passage from the Third Empire describing an interview with French television, Vladimir II says:

“Don’t you love us?” The emperor mocks the negotiator. “All is well. So fight and conquer us… Or don’t buy our energy products to try to starve us.”

Khapaeva says it is difficult to distinguish these arguments in the book from Putin’s contemporary expansionist speeches.

And Yuriev’s fiction was once again confirmed when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke of the “fundamental importance” of Russia’s oil and gas to the European economy, resisting international pressure to boycott Russian imports.

Putin’s Expansionism Beyond Ukraine

One of the most worrying points in the book, which imagines the imaginary Victory Parade, is that the author predicted that Russia would not be satisfied with the partial annexation of Ukraine, content with only the Crimea and the separatist territories to the east.

The narrator of the book talks about a so-called agreement to end the war, which shows that the author is satisfied with Russia’s ability to benefit from Western diplomacy:

“Although the annexation of eastern Ukraine was not officially recognized, it was stipulated that Russia would cease to occupy any territory west of the borders.

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It was pure PR for the United States because they knew perfectly well that Russia had no such thing in mind.”

In the Third Empire, Russian geopolitical ambitions force the United States and the European Union to declare war.

According to Yuriev, Russia will meet this challenge with a secret weapon that could make the country invincible in a nuclear conflict.

This causes both Americans and Europeans to eventually surrender and subject the world to Russian rule.

Ukrainian-American journalist Natalia Antonova, heard by The Times in an article about the book, said that the message that Russia would not be content with a partial victory and the emphasis on humiliating the United States contained a warning about the plans of the United States. Putin’s expansionism project:

“This man has a dark and disturbing vision – not just for Ukraine, but for all of us. Ukraine will never be enough for him. It does not satisfy your desire to take revenge on the West.”

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