At around 05:50 am on April 1, a fuel tank caught fire in Belgorod, Russia, less than 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
A video circulating on social media and controlled by the BBC showed the missiles crashed into the facility as two helicopters passed, triggering a series of explosions that resulted in a large fireball.
Some media outlets reported that, based on footage from other videos, two helicopters, apparently Mi-8, flew over other cities hours after the explosions.
Belgorod regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov accused Ukraine of launching an attack on the facility, and shortly thereafter, a spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense said that two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters had entered Russian airspace at an extremely low altitude and “launched a civilian-type missile attack”. fuel tank” on the outskirts of Belgorod.
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This is not the first time suspicious explosions have occurred on Russian soil since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Just a few days ago, on March 29, several explosions were recorded at an ammunition depot near Belgorod.
This time, however, was different because, as BBC defense correspondent Jonathan Beale explains, if Kiev’s involvement in the blast were confirmed, it would be the first time a Ukrainian plane would have crossed Russian territory to strike a target.
However, despite Moscow’s accusations, Kyiv did not claim responsibility for the attack. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said Russia’s “aggression” was repelled “on Ukrainian soil”.
“This does not mean that Ukraine is responsible for all these disasters and all these events that occurred on the territory of the Russian Federation. This is not the first time we have seen such accusations. So dear friends, I will not confirm or deny this information.” said.
Accidents or attacks?
Since then, several suspicious incidents have been reported on Russian soil.
For example, on April 25, the city of Bryansk, about 150 kilometers northeast of the Ukrainian border, awoke to a darkening sky due to a fire at a major oil pipeline. Regional governor Aleksandr Bogomaz reported that a fuel tank was on fire, but did not explain why.
There were also explosions near Russian military installations and even at a military research institute in the city of Tver, near Moscow.
No one knows the exact number, but the press has reported more than a dozen such incidents.
“They happened in different parts of the country. They happened in research centers, often at facilities connected to military and other strategic production centers, so it seems pretty clear that these explosions weren’t a coincidence,” said Matthew Orr, a senior analyst. In an interview with BBC News Mundo, the BBC’s Spanish-language news service in Eurasia at Rane, a geopolitical risk analysis consultancy.
Analysts believe that some of these incidents could be caused by powerful Turkish-made Bayraktar drones owned by Ukraine, and in other cases, it could be infiltration operations by that country’s intelligence units into Russian territory.
However, Kyiv still neither admits nor denies its involvement in these events. Why?
strategic uncertainty
Officials in Volodymyr Zelensky’s government declined to reveal what they knew about these events, but showed some satisfaction with them.
“Belgorod, ‘Movka’, Bryanks. Constant ‘production events’. How can we not believe karma for the death of children in Ukraine? Yet many are ready to turn a blind eye to the financing of terrorism by buying Russian oil. Should the European Union be dependent on a country where everything explodes? ” Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, wrote on his Twitter account on April 25.
Anton Gerashchenko, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, also ironically referred to these events. He also posted a “no smoking” message on Twitter, along with an image of the fuel tank fire in Bryansk.
To date, the most direct response of any Ukrainian official to these events has been given by Oleksei Arestovych, an adviser to Zelensky’s chief of staff.
“We don’t confirm and we don’t deny it. We don’t officially say yes after what happened and we don’t say no just like Israel,” Arestovych told the American newspaper The New York in a recent interview. The Times refers to Israel’s decades-long policy of “strategic uncertainty” around its nuclear weapons program.
As Matthew Orr explained to BBC News Mundo, Ukraine gains the most by keeping the uncertainty on the matter.
“It can be assumed that some of these attacks were carried out with the help of Ukrainian intelligence, and they don’t see the need to give this issue more visibility because they don’t want Russia to use these explosions to justify an escalation from the war,” he says.
Orr explains that for the sake of information, it is more valuable for Ukrainians to say that it was not done by them but by people in Russia who were sympathetic to the situation in Kiev and wanted to sabotage the war started by Russia. Putin.
The expert adds that it is not surprising that Ukraine is carrying out actions on Russian soil because this country has been working there for years to have intelligence, resources and capabilities. “It would be unwise for them not to use these resources now.”
threats and climbing
The repetition of these events disturbed Moscow, which threatened reprisals.
Last week, Russia’s Defense Ministry accused Britain of “provoking” Ukraine to launch attacks on Russian soil, saying “The Russian army is ready to carry out retaliatory attacks using high-precision weapons on decision-making centers in Kiev.”
In response, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Western military alliance) of participating in a “proxy war” against Russia and stated that the weapons delivered to Ukraine by the West are a “legitimate target” for Russia. warned about. forces.
He accused the West of “putting gasoline on the fire” by supplying Ukraine with weapons and said the conflict could lead to World War III.
But could these events on Russian soil lead to an escalation of the conflict?
Experts such as Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis consultancy R. Politik, point out that attacks on Russian soil can increase support for the war in that country.
“Russian society is not ready for peace. Russian society expects Ukraine to be defeated. Everything that comes from Ukraine, such as attacks on Russian soil, only fuels these feelings,” Stanovaya told the American newspaper The Washington Post.
Although Matthew Orr admits that Kiev was behind these explosions, he does not believe these events were a cause for escalation.
“I don’t think it will be decisive, but it may be part of the argument that Russia is using to expand the offensive; in any case, it’s just another element,” he says.
“Russia is already using ballistic missiles to destroy railways, factories, roads, bridges and all kinds of infrastructure in Ukraine, which would be equivalent to Ukraine doing the same thing, but in a quieter and more limited way. If he decides to use it as an argument, it may trigger an escalation of conflict”.
In any case, it has not been proven that Ukraine was behind all these events, and in fact, there are experts who think that probably only a limited part of it corresponds to the actions of Ukrainian forces.
William Alberque, Director of Strategy, Technology and Arms Control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a UK-based think tank, pointed out that Russia is mobilizing weapons and ammunition on a large scale. Accidents caused by negligence and corruption problems among Russian forces. According to him, Ukraine seized the opportunity to hold the Russians responsible for these events.
“Even if the explosions were caused by negligence, they (Ukrainians) are happy to let the world think they were the result of special operations. And in some cases, the Russians are more happy to blame the Ukrainians than to admit that the blame may be connected. Alberque told Radio Free Europe, “Russian civil or military authorities against acts of corruption committed by
The expert said that he has no doubt that the Ukrainians are carrying out acts of sabotage against Russia and are trying to target as many Russian fuel and ammunition depots as possible, but it would be wrong to attribute all fires or explosions in Russia to Kiev. .
But whether these incidents are accidents caused by sabotage, negligence or corruption, according to geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan, “they serve to raise the morale of troops and populations in Ukraine, where the Russian army has already lost all hope. Most Ukrainian citizens regard them as liberators or Slavic cousins.” does”.
So, under these circumstances, the strategic uncertainty of the Zelensky government allows Russian forces to take advantage of any setbacks they suffer.
source: Noticias
