Russia-Ukraine War: Moscow raises the tone of its threats and the specter of nuclear weapons reappears

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s goal was achieved in Finland and Sweden on Wednesday. He didn’t just sign “a security agreement” to protect them, which includes deployment of nuclear weaponsbut Finland decided to join NATO “without delay”, when Russia’s aggression on Ukraine continued.

A strategic stepwhich worries some countries in Europe but further angers the Kremlin.

It was a security agreement first ratified on the boat ride, with Boris paddling on a lake, a traditional Swedish symbol on an official visit, with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson.

Kremlin warning

Prior to the Finnish announcement, the Kremlin said the Helsinki movement to join NATO was not conducive to stability and security in Europe, clarifying that it was a “certain threat” to Russia, which would be forced to adopt. “acts of revenge”.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has denounced that NATO is expanding towards Russia’s borders, to create a new threat to his country.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov believes Finland’s move to join NATO is a cause for regret and a reason for impose “a symmetrical response”.

He said Russia was ready to give the most decisive response to any side trying to get involved in Ukraine and aimed to “avoid” “special military operations”, as Russia calls the aggression.

“Any action by Russia will depend on how the expansion process will appear in the future, how close or far the military infrastructure is, how close it is to our borders,” he warned.

“Of course, if you remember the current instructions from the (Russian) president and the commander -in -chief, to compile a list of measures to strengthen our western parts in relation to strengthening the eastern part of NATO, that is, NATO is moving in our direction., “a Kremlin spokesman said on Thursday.

“So, of course, all this will be elements for a special review and development of the necessary measures, to balance the situation and guarantee our security,” he remarked.

new stage

Finland and Russia have a common border of 1,303 kilometers and to date the Helsinki government has remained neutral. But since Russia’s invasion he has been worried about his future, when he has one of the strongest and most modern economies in the EU.

Finland has very good military equipment and one of the largest in Europe. It spends 5 percent of its GDP on defense, more than NATO’s target, and compulsory military service, bringing it to 900,000 reservists.

The loss of neutrality of Sweden and Finland opens up a new chapter of European security defense. NATO, which is a “flat electroencephalogram”, according to Emmanuel Macron, has come together like never before in 70 years, including the cold war.

The security agreement that Great Britain signed with Finland and Sweden was unthinkable six months ago. But it worries the EU.

the british game

Great Britain is not part of the EU. Its “proxy” war against Russia has an ally with the United States, but for Europe it has a different intensity and different interests.

He did not want the war to fall on the EU, despite the extreme position towards Moscow of the countries of Eastern Europe and join the EU for security and not political or cultural ties in Europe, such as Poland and the Baltics, faced with the threat of Moscow.

Great Britain relied on them, when Emmanuel Macron, president pro tempore of the EU, wanted to build a new political status to protect Ukraine but not become a member of the bloc, which would be a process that would “take decades”.

Great Britain does not accept this new status because it could include the kingdom if the government that supports Brexit changes. But France wants this to be discussed at the Council of Europe meeting in June.

Support in Finland

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tweeted his support for Finland’s decision. “In a phone call to President Sauli Niinisto, he has already assured the full support of the federal government,” he wrote.

They were accompanied by the leaders of Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Denmark, Romania, Latvia, and the President of the European Council Charles Michel.

But the war in Ukraine will be set in the coming weeks, when Russia’s offensive in the east fails for both logistical and troop motivation reasons as the attack on kyiv.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to Europe for the NATO meeting over the weekend. The next day he will arrive in Paris for a trade meeting with European leaders, when Ukraine demands a total embargo on Russia’s oil.

Putin’s nuclear weapons

President Vladimir Putin could use the use of nuclear weapons to prevent a war of attrition in Ukraine, U.S. intelligence warns.

Avril Haines, director of U.S. national intelligence, told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee that the next phase of Russia’s invasion remained uncertain and is likely to be “more unpredictable and progressive”.

“It is possible Putin used nuclear weapons if he felt an existing threat to his regime or to Russia,” Haines said.

Haines explained to the Senate that the United States saw no “imminent” threat that Moscow would use such an arsenal. But if Putin believes he is losing the war in Ukraine or that NATO is “interfering or about to intervene in that context, he could use atomic weapons.

“But there are a lot of things he’s going to do in the context of escalation before he lands on a nuclear weapon,” he said. “And also that it’s likely that it will participate in some signaling more than what it has done so far before it was done,” he clarifies.

“Despite the Kremlin’s move to focus on capture in the Donbas region after failed attempts to capture the capital kyiv, the battle remains deadlock,” the US intelligence chief said. An idea he shares with the British.

The top US spy chief added that even if Russia wins in eastern Ukraine, “we are not confident that the fighting in the Donbas will effectively end the war.”

He warned that Putin was “preparing for a protracted conflict in Ukraine, in which he still wants to achieve goals across the Donbas.”

However, he added that Putin faced “a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current military capabilities.”

“Putin’s decisions are likely to be increasingly difficult to predict in the coming months in an era of more ad hoc decision -making in Russia, both regarding the internal adjustments needed to maintain this momentum, as well as military battle. in Ukraine and in the West, “Haines said.

“The Russians didn’t win and the Ukrainians didn’t win. We’re kind of stuck here,” Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, in the audience.

long war?

The growing possibility of a protracted war could cause Putin to do so more violent choicessuch as the imposition of martial law to rebuild its military, redirect industrial production, or potentially intensify military action.

Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky said in a virtual speech to students at French Sciences Po university on Wednesday: “In every new Bucha, in every new Mariupol, in every new city where there are dozens of deaths, cases of rape, with With each new the atrocity, the desire and the possibility to negotiate disappears, as well as the possibility of resolving this issue diplomatically. ”

Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the UN, assured that the time will come when there will be peace talks in Ukraine. But but I do not see that they will be implemented in the immediate future. This Thursday announced the launch of an investigation into the atrocities of Russian soldiers focused on Ukraine.

There are horrific pictures of executions of civilians and soldiers and of rapes of civilians, children and infants in Ukraine.

Paris, correspondent

CB