Sweden is following in Finland’s footsteps, approaching NATO and breaking 200 years of neutrality

The Gotland regiment of the Swedish army is conducting tests, seeing how to use Swedish-designed light anti-tank missiles, the NLAWs, which are proving very effective in Ukraine.

The regiment, which was re-activated in 2018 on this strategic island cooperating with air control and naval space of the Baltic Sea, is in the process of rebuilding with the aim of expanding from the current 400 soldiers to 4,000, still long. way from the 25,000 who served here during the Cold War.

In a major reassessment of its security posture, initiated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sweden is once again learning to be a military power.

And its strategic partner, Finland, is urging it to soon apply for NATO membership, which will end more than 200 years of neutrality and non-military alignment.

The new commander of the Gotland regiment, Colonel Magnus Frykvall, had a clear vision of the mission of rebuild Sweden’s defensesas well as the importance of the island guarded by his regiment.

“If you own Gotland, you can control the movement of sea and air throughout the southern Baltic,” he said.

threat of Moscow

Joining NATO was a political decision, said Frykvall, 47, but he was in favor of it. “Cooperation is one thing, but alliance is different,” he added. “An alliance means one has guarantees.”

A parliamentary report presented on Friday by Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde said NATO join with Finland would have a deterrent effect on northern Europe, although the analysis also warned that retaliatory measures would not can be avoided. of Russia during the transition if Sweden will apply to join the alliance.

One of the Frykvall soldiers, Private Sara Karlsson, 20, an artillery specialist, said: “All the soldiers here today feel that we are making a difference, and I also see it in my colleagues, a new sense of responsibility ”.

The world is dangerous and there is always war somewhere, he said. “But Ukraine is not far from Gotland, and we feel it,” he added.

If Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a quiet wake-up call, the large-scale and bloody invasion in February in Ukraine was a large fire alarm.

“We are living our dream and now is the time to wake up,” said Robert Dalsjo, director of studies at the Swedish Defense Research Agency. “The dream is over.”

Opinion in Finland, which has fought two wars against the Soviet Union, over the past six months has changed drastically in favor of joining NATO, under the guidance of Sauli Niinisto, the president.

Today nearly 80% of Finns support membership, compared to just 20% before the war. On Thursday, Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced their support for Finland’s application to join, and a parliamentary vote is expected to take place on Monday.

hot debate

But in Sweden, the debate is more of a psychodrama with the ruling Social Democratic Party, where Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson ruled Sweden’s NATO membership until March 8, after Russia’s invasion. But in mid -April, his position changed.

“Something before and after Feb. 24, the security scene has completely changed,” he explains. “Given the situation, we need to think about what is best for Sweden and our peace in this new situation.”

Swedish public opinion followed the same line, with 52% now in favor of joining NATO, especially if Finland joined, compared to 27% before the war.

On Sunday, after debating with members of the country’s 26 constituencies, the Social Democrats will announce their decision, said Kenneth G. Forslund, a member of the party’s executive and chairman of Parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee.

The consensus is that the party would be reluctant to support NATO joining with Finland.

“We and the Finns have to stand together,” said Carl Bildt, a former prime minister. “If we were outside of ourselves, we would be a museum of ’60s nostalgia.”

joint arrangements

Some analysts from both countries doubt that Stockholm and Helsinki will apply together and that NATO will accept this quickly.

Both the United States and Britain – Washington silent, London loud – issued bilateral security assurances to both countries as the requests were ratified.

For Sweden and Finland, “times have changed,” said Bjorn Fagersten of the Swedish Institute of International Relations. “It’s a new normal, a new world.”

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Stockholm decided that war was a thing of the past. He withdrew almost all his forces from Gotland and reduced the national army by 90% approximately and the navy and the air force of 70%.

It was a decision called by a retired colonel, Mats Ekeroth, who runs a military museum on Gotland, “completely stupid”.

The last time Gotland was invaded was in 1808… by Russia. 1,800 Russians were expelled within a month, but, as a farewell, Russia kidnapped Finland from the Swedes. Just six years later, in 1814, Sweden fought its last war.

historical showdown

So Russia has always been a threatening presence for the Nordic countries. Russia’s Kaliningrad fleet is just 300 kilometers away, as are its nuclear -capable Iskander missiles.

“The mistrust in Russia goes back a long time, about 700 years,” recalls Niklas Granholm, of the Swedish Defense Research Agency. He added: “This war against Ukraine will not be forgotten for several generations, it will not be forgotten that it is Russia.”

People felt a shock even before the invasion, when Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Sweden and Finland of “revenge” if they joined NATO.

“Putin’s direct threats had the opposite effect,” Dalsjo said. “The level of perceived threat has increased significantly,” which prompted both countries to join NATO, he added.

Sweden’s international reputation is for neutrality, peacekeeping, nuclear disarmament, gender equality, and a “feminist foreign policy”. We Swedes in general, as Bildt jokes, “we consider ourselves the bright voice of humanity.”

Alliance with the United States

But his changes were not as sudden as they seemed. Even under Olof Palme, whose sharp criticism of the Vietnam War angered Washington, Sweden had cooperation with Moscow, but also a close and quiet bilateral defense relationship with the United States.

It was a secret relationship for many years, known as “the hidden alliance”, although it was revealed in Moscow by a well -known Swedish spy. As Bildt said, “this is a policy known to the Russians but not to the Swedes.”

Fighting for nuclear disarmament and peace while trying to “build bridges” in Moscow is not at odds with ensuring Sweden’s ability to defend itself with the help of the US and British.

In fact, while promoting disarmament, Sweden is quietly one of the largest arms manufacturers per capita in the world, along with major companies such as Saab, which makes fighter jets, and Bofors, are now part of Britain’s BAE Systems.

Sweden has become a major arms exporter; in 2021, its arms industry will export weapons worth 2,000 million dollars, despite restrictions imposed on sales to dictatorships or war-torn countries, of which Ukraine is one of the main exceptions. .

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, both Sweden and Finland reached the West.

They abandoned neutrality to apply to join the European Union in 1992 and NATO’s Partnership for Peace program in 1994, although they remained out of military alignment. Both countries participated in NATO exercises.

The upcoming decision is causing grief to many Swedes, who are concerned that membership in a nuclear alliance limits Sweden’s ability to push nuclear disarmament, control weapons and peacefully resolve the conflict.

“This is not how peace and security are built,” said Gabriella Irsten of the Swedish Peace and Arbitration Society, which strongly condemns Russia’s aggression but opposes NATO membership. “Security is created next to our enemy: if our enemy is not safe, we are not safe either.”

“I also think we will lose our history,” he added. “We have worked for a long time with a vision of how to build peace and are now discarded without real discussion and with all this fear.”

Both the Greens and the Left Party oppose NATO membership for similar reasons.

Marta Stenevi of the Greens said Russia’s aggression meant “a reassessment of our defense and security positions”, but called for Sweden’s better defense and closer cooperation with NATO than membership, ” that would come accompanied by certain obligations ”, such as going to war in a crisis of no choice.

Source: The New York Times

Translation: Elisa Carnelli

CB