Shipments of Western weapons to Ukraine raise concerns about possible weapons diversion in a country known to have been a major hub for such smuggling in the late 1990s.
“There is a very significant risk in Ukraine with the proliferation of weapons, particularly small and light weapons,” warns Nils Duquet, director of the Flemish Institute for Peace.
Since the start of the Russian military offensive on February 24, several Western countries led by the United States have announced the supply of heavy and light weapons to support the Ukrainian government against Russian troops.
The United States has provided or promised, among others, hundreds of Switchblade “suicide drones”, 7,000 assault rifles, 50 million rounds and various ammunition, laser-guided rockets and radars against artillery and drones.
The Stimson Center, an American think tank, says that although this support to Ukraine is “understandable”, the “security implications” of this arms transfer need to be evaluated.
“We’ve often seen how weapons sent to aid an ally are then found in unexpected hands, sometimes among groups that conflict with the interests of the United States and the civilian population,” the center said in a note released last March.
“This is especially true for small arms and light weapons, which risk greater loss, illicit market diversion or abuse,” he adds.
“Wrong use”
Based on Ukraine’s recent history, the risk of diversion is far from fictional. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, many Ukrainian weapons were diverted to other countries and other conflict zones.
And in 2014 the conflict in Ukraine was accompanied by the looting of Ukrainian weapons and ammunition warehouses, especially in the east and in the Crimea.
According to the Small Arms Research (SAS) research project at the Institute for International and Development Studies in Geneva, a total of at least 300,000 small arms and light weapons were looted or lost between 2013 and 2015. Only 4,000 were found.
According to SAS, contrary to the flows observed with the collapse of the Soviet Union, after 2014 smuggling concentrated mainly in Ukraine, fueling the parallel market.
In the United States, the issue of monitoring the last use of weapons sent to Ukraine has been anxiously highlighted by the Inspector General of the Department of Defense since 2020.
Some NGOs, such as the Center for Civilians in Conflict (Civic), have also raised alarms, highlighting the lack of transparency about oversight or measures taken by the US and other countries sending weapons to Ukraine to mitigate risks. “…
Civic’s Annie Shiel says the same applies to “guarantees to ensure that civilians are protected against these massive transfers.”
Shiel advocates for “explicit human rights obligations to be added to the terms of sale” of weapons, and even “assures that any transfer of arms has robust monitoring procedures”.
The task is considered delicate by some and even impossible by others.
“In the context of war, it is misleading to think that circulating weapons can be controlled,” says Nils Duquet, who “understands” the support for Ukraine but is concerned about the future consequences.
“Weapons used 30 years ago are still in circulation,” he emphasizes, in the former Yugoslavia.
source: Noticias
