Turkey’s opposition to Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO should be resolved with a mix of concessions and pressure on the Turkish governmentaccording to analysts, but the hypothesis of a complete lockout cannot be ruled out.

unity it is necessary to start discussions on joining NATO and each member country must also ratify the agreement at the parliamentary level, giving de facto veto power to each of its 30 current members.

A member of NATO since the early years of the organization (1952), Turkey could then theoretically block the entry of both Nordic countries.

After saying on Tuesday that he would not “give up”, its president Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked NATO members on Wednesday “listen” to their “concerns”.

Gathered in Brussels on Wednesday morning for the official presentation of the Swedish and Finnish candidates, the ambassadors of the alliance countries disagreed on the immediate launch of discussions on the ascension, due to Turkish opposition.

possible deal

Many issues have been contested in Turkey and the West against each other in recent years, and Turkey has not always won, analysts say.

For Paul Levin, director of the Institute of Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, an agreement is likely to be reached.

“On this very strategic issue, I bet that Sweden will make concessions and other NATO countries will contribute by putting pressure on Turkey and giving you some requests“, he pointed out.

But a complete blockade ”cannot be eliminated, especially since the PKK affair is very sensitive for many Turks, “he said.

In Sweden in their views, Turkish critics focus on the attitude of both countries on the issue of Kurdish groups. Mainly about the Kurdistan Workers ’Party (PKK), as well as the Kurdish armed movements in Syria that Turkey has fought.

Described as a “terrorist organization” of Turkeythe PKK is also treated in this way by the United States and includes the European Union, Sweden and Finland.

But Sweden’s anti -terrorism laws are not as extensive as in Turkey, insisted Paul Levin, director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University.

“For example, It is not forbidden to be a member or wave the flag of a terrorist organization. “he emphasizes, making it possible to organize frequent pro-PKK demonstrations in the streets of Stockholm.

Turkey attacks both countries rdeny his extradition requests member of “terrorist organizations”.

In Syria

Turkish annoyance with the PKK has widened in recent years to the signs of Swedish support for Kurdish armed groups in Syriasuch as the anti-Islamic State militia of the People’s Protection Units (YPG).

In other European countries, both banned arms exports to Turkey in October 2019in retaliation for a Turkish offensive in northern Syria.

Turkey, which has attacked Stockholm for advancing these measures, does not want them to enter NATO countries that have implemented “sanctions” against Turkey, according to Erdogan.

In addition to settling disputes in Sweden about the Kurds, Turkish President Erdogan can obtain US arms concessionstry to improve domestic popularity and even send a favorable signal to Russia, where it has complex relations, according to analysts.

“Erdogan is a leader skilled in transactions in his country’s relations with the West, and I think he’s trying to do a big thing here, not just trying to force Sweden to change the PKK, ”said Soner Cagaptay, director of research in Turkey at the Washington Institute.

the theme of American aircraft exports towards Turkey is regularly mentioned as a hint to a solution.

Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missiles in 2019 caused it to be excluded from the US F-35 program.

Unblocking in this sense is unlikely, but negotiations have been held in recent weeks on an agreement to export and modernize a previous-generation aircraft, the F-16.

The US Parliament must approve the transaction, and the management is seen as blackmail from Turkey, what lawmakers don’t like, according to analysts.

AFP agency

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