Despite the proliferation of monkeypox cases, it’s still “a little early” to talk about an epidemic, but we need to stay vigilant, according to epidemiologist Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute for Global Health at the University of Medicine. Geneva.
Can we talk about an epidemic?
“We are witnessing the emergence of an extraordinary process that is not yet clear whether the epidemic will turn into an explosion or be limited to a more controlled spread. The number of cases reported in recent days has doubled in three to four days. It may indicate the exponential growth of an epidemic wave.
But it’s also worth asking whether the recent media coverage of this phenomenon encourages patients to consult their doctor and talk more about the diagnosis and to report any detected cases.
So it’s a little early to talk about an epidemic, but the onset of an epidemic will be similar to what is observed today.”
Confused and worried about the spread of the disease?
“The emergence of this new phenomenon outside of equatorial Africa should keep us on the alert. Isolating a few cases will be far more health-efficient and far less socially and economically impactful. Detected for three weeks and demanded quarantine for highly suspected individuals.” .
We can now try to eliminate all chains of transmission because instead of waiting to be overwhelmed by a possible stream of cases for which we have little information, few treatments or vaccines, we only have a few.
At present, what is known about the virus does not cause us to fear mass transmission of the general population unless the virus evolves.
It has been known from African experience for over 50 years that this virus requires a high degree of person-to-person contact with an infectious person to allow for infection.”
Is there a risk of a global epidemic?
“No scenario can be ruled out at the moment and the possibility of a pandemic cannot be completely ruled out. However, there are less pessimistic scenarios that are at least feasible.
So far, a chain of more than six infected has not been reported. The reproductive rate in Africa has always been less than 1, meaning there is no pandemic potential.
It is possible that conditions exist for transmission between people, which will be facilitated by further adaptation of the virus, as well as networks of human communities living in densely populated and highly mobile places.
The HIV/AIDS pandemic started with the transmission of certain segments of society, such as gay male communities and needle exchangers. The pandemic later spread to other population groups such as transfusion patients, sex workers, heterosexual couples, and newborns of infected mothers.
But for now, nothing indicates that the monkeypox virus is sexually transmitted. Transmission occurs through close and prolonged contact with an infected person with skin lesions and there is no reason to be limited to the male gay community.”
source: Noticias
