Historic elections in Colombia

This time, however, may be right, believes Sergio Guzman, director of Columbia Risk Analysisa political risk consulting agency, because he is the person who represents change.

People are very pessimistic right now and this translates into a sanction vote against the candidate representing the continuation of the current government, Federico Gutierrezhis observation.

Mr Petro is unlikely to get more than 50% in the first round, but pollsters predict he will prevail in the second round against Federico Gutierrez, former mayor of Medellin.

In recent days, the rise in votes of the third candidate, Rodolfo Hernandez, however, suggests a possible comeback.

If he was able to pass Federico Gutierrez and qualify for the second round, it would completely change the equation.believes Yann Basset, professor of political science at the University of Rosario, in Bogota. Rodolfo Hernandez is not a candidate to be assimilated into the classic right, he is an anti-system candidate with a very particular rhetoric.

The second round between MM. Petro and Hernandez will be tighter, according to polls.

Fears in a Venezuelan scenario

Gustavo Petro was part of the M-19 guerrilla. After ten years of secret struggle, he demobilized with his comrades as part of the peace process in 1990. Since then, he has been deputy, senator, then mayor of Bogota (2012-2015).

If he were indeed elected on June 19, as the polls predicted, it would be a huge uproar. The left in power, for many Colombians, is the equivalent of Cuba or Venezuela.

Right-wing voters feel that Petro will follow the Venezuelan model [où des gouvernements de gauche ont détruit l’économie]underlined Elizabeth Dickinson, analyst for Colombia atInternational Crisis Group.

To reassure the business community, Mr. Petro formally undertook not to undertake any expropriations. However, he plans to raise taxes on the richest and set up programs to fight poverty, which affects 40% of Colombians.

Mr. Petro also proposed to end oil exploration, in order to finally free the country from its dependence on hydrocarbons.

The political elites who have ruled Colombia for decades are nervous and trying to discredit him. But Venezuela’s fatalistic argument no longer worksargument by Sergio Guzman.

In 2018, current president Ivan Duque won because of that fear, Guzman believes. Four years later, however, with very high unemployment, the ever -increasing cost of living and corruption at all levels, when people are told that Petro is a disastrous option, they no longer believe in itanalyst observation.

Left parties have long suffered from interactions with guerrillas and the armed conflict that has ravaged the country for decades.

The peace agreement concluded in 2016 between the government and the guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) has however changed the situation, and this brand is no longer scary, Yann Basset said.

" Given the historical relationship between the left and the guerrillas, until recently the legal and democratic left, which refused violence, had to distance itself from these groups. "

With the demobilization of the FARC, this association disappearedHe added.

In addition, the peace agreement opened the door to discuss issues not previously discussed, Ms. Dickinson.

Conflict has always been central to political discussionhis observation. Whereas today, the most important for the population is the lack of social mobility, the lack of access to education and the abandonment of rural areas.

These issues prompted the population to stage massive demonstrations in 2019 and 2021 against President Duque. Gustavo Petro was able to convey this discontent and presented himself as an alternative to an unpopular government, deaf to protest movements.

" Petro is the candidate who knows best how to hear people’s frustrations. He took the pulse of the country and positioned himself as the person who could best find solutions. "

Its strength has succeeded in mobilizing sectors far removed from politics, particularly the youth, believes Yann Basset.There is a significant change in the generation that is felt in public opinion.

During demonstrations in April 2021, some protesters mentioned the desire to continue their mobilization to elect Gustavo Petro to the presidency. They saw that he was the only one capable of changing the status quo.

Breaklines

In addition to young people, Mr. Petro draws support from marginalized regions of the country, such as the Caribbean and Pacific coasts, as well as the peripheral regions that have suffered the most from violence in recent decades, underlined by Mr. Basset.

It also appeals to a poorer electorate, according to a study by the University of Rosario, which shows a clear link between the poorest municipalities and the vote for Mr. Petro’s party. Minorities (indigenous and Afro-Colombian) also seem to favor the left.

This is a big change from the 2018 election, which the study authors say explained by the increase in poverty during the pandemic and the fact that people are no longer buying into the discourse about universal benefits of economic growth.

Gustavo Petro knows this very well. He called his coalition the Historic Pact, so to speak in the mostly silenced, says Sergio Guzman. He chose 40-year-old Afro-Colombian human rights and environmental activist Francia Marquez as his running mate.

This is the first time an Afro-Colombian woman has been a candidate for the country’s vice-president.

Francia Marquez has enormous symbolic weight in this presidential election because she is a single mother, Afro-Colombian, who comes from a rural area, known for her opposition to large-scale mining.statement by Sergio Guzman.

Moreover, he points out, his appointment created a ripple effect. Four of the seven other parties have chosen Afro descendants as vice presidential candidates.

" Francia Marquez anchors the issue of inequality and racial diversity in the political narrative. "

High risk elections

Violence, despite the peace agreement signed with the FARC, still persists in the country.

Northern Colombia was paralyzed for several days in early May by an armed strike called by the Gulf Cartel, a drug trafficking group, in retaliation for the extradition of its leader, Dairo Antonio Usuga, alias Otoniel, in the United States, where he will be tried for cocaine trafficking. Six people were killed and about 100 vehicles were set on fire.

Over the past few days, Mr. Petro has condemned the reception of threats and suspended some rallies. The Ministry of the Interior has reinforced the impressive protective device that comes with it.

Dozens of leftist politicians have been killed in Colombia in the past, including former M-19 guerrilla commander Carlos Pizarro and Patriotic Union (UP) leader Bernardo Jaramillo, both shot during the 1990 presidential campaign. presidential candidate fromUPPatriotic UnionJaime Pardo Leal, was assassinated in 1987.

The environment is very tense, Ms. observation. Dickinson. Violence is common in Colombian elections, whether intimidation or attacks on candidates, but also intimidation and coercion of votershe pointed out.

If he is elected on June 19, Gustavo Petro will have to learn to negotiate, analysts believe. I will be the president of all Colombian societysaid Mr. Petro in an interview with the magazine week.

But, until now, his strength has not been compromised, Sergio Guzman observes.

" When faced with his contradictions, Gustavo Petro treats his opponents as mafia or he denounces an attempt to steal the election. "

Over the past four years, polarization has continued to rise due to pandemics and economic suffering associated with Duque government policies., believes Elizabeth Dickinson. JI see no candidate willing to face this polarization and represent the entire population.

However, whoever is elected will have to make important compromises and government from the center, as the legislative elections in March produced a very divided Congress, with no party holding a clear majority.