War in Ukraine: “A Russian victory is looming, but in a very localized and circumscribed area”

“Moscow seeks limited target in a war of attrition”thinks Vincenzo Tourretresearcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, in France, in an interview with RFI, on the military situation on the ground after three months of war in Ukraine.

After the failure of the Russian blitzkrieg three months ago, when it was feared that Kiev and much of Ukraine would be occupied by Russia, the Russian military has scaled back its ambitions and is now focusing on the conquest of Donbas, east of the country.

The fighting in Severodonetsk, for example, is said to be the scene of a high-intensity artillery war. The front lines are very tight and the battle is focused on the use of artillery.

-Do you agree?

Yes, we can present things this way. We are witnessing a return to the fundamentals of Russian military doctrine. Above all, a bigger one integration between the different weapons. Not between armies, but in the use of weapons. Because the integration between the armies remains quite insufficient for the moment. On the other hand, when it comes to supplementing artillery fire, the Russians fare much better.

Was it something predictable?

– Exactly, because it is one of the strengths of the Russians. This was the initial plan to carry out their plans: first rely on artillery fire to conquer the ground, then prepare the troops for maneuvers. The Russians are back too a more basic way a little less effective, but it worked: a more methodical, gradual zonal approach, which compensates for the inaccuracy of the fire with a greater mass of fire.

-The offensive three months ago is very different from what is happening now, as the Russians are now focused on a narrower target, the Donbas. Ukrainians pose asymmetrical, high-tech warfare, as well as fierce resistance. What do you think of this change of strategy?

-There has indeed been a total change in the level of the war from what the Russians predicted. In the beginning there was the vision of a “special operation” which was to be characterized by speed, but also by the quality of the Russian forces and by high technology. All this would have allowed Ukraine to be devastated in a few days. This scenario, however, did not materialize. Absolutely.

Target reduction

-What is the war like now?

-Today we have really entered a high intensity war. The Russians have understood that this is a war of a much higher level. And this can be seen in its operational ambition. We can see that there is a concentration, but this is assumed to be a kind of lowering your goals. What we see is a tightening of encirclement, centered on the Donbas, and a far more pragmatic Russian view of what they can actually achieve with the forces at their disposal.

-For instance?

-For example, there was a theoretical plan to surround the Dnieper, but it has completely disappeared. Operations are currently concentrated on the fringes of the Ukrainian system, around Severodonetsk, with attacks on Popasna and Lyman. Specifically, it is outlined a Russian victorybut it is extremely localized and very limited.

Apparently the Russians have run out of precision missiles, in any case they fire less of this type of weapon.

-What we can observe is that there is an alteration, a change in the composition of the Russian attacks. That is to say, their strikes, initially, were with long-range missiles, missiles which they call tactical-operational. I mean the whole range of Iskander, the Tochka, the cruise missiles. These weapons stocks, which are quite sophisticated, it is reaching its limit of its stocks, especially since the Russians need some of these missiles to ensure their strategic deterrence mission.

-How much have the stocks of this type of weapon been reduced?

-We must not think that there are no more Iskander, nor more sophisticated Russian missiles, but rather that those that remain cannot be used for conventional purposes in the course of operations. What we see today is a larger role for aviation and a predominant role for ground artillery, and therefore with much greater imprecision.

By Frack Alexandre of RFI

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