Crisis in Britain: Boris Johnson has managed to pass the vote of confidence and will continue in power

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson got the vote of confidence within the Conservative Partyhe will continue to be prime minister and once again has demonstrated his condition as a survivor, in politics and in life.

With 211 votes to 148 votes, the motion that at least 54 rebel Conservative MPs presented today before the 1922 Party Committee was won, which called for a vote in agreement with the premier and after the completion of the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations. . A majority of 63 votes that predicts a complicated future.

But this happened all the same it could be the beginning of the end for him and his government. It was hoped that it could reduce the partisan rebellion to double digits. This result threatens him.

He can officially rule for another year, without a leadership challenge. But the 1922 Committee can change the rules and speed up a second faster vote of confidence.

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The prime minister addressed the parliamentarians asking for your support, three years later he won the elections with a resounding majority of 80 seats and 14 million votes. He saw this vote of confidence as a way to “clean the air” and continue to rule.

A YouGov poll showed the climate of conservative voters. Faced with the question “whether or not Conservative MPs should remove Boris Johnson from office”, 53 percent disagreed and 43 percent but 50 percent took the vote of confidence and 44 percent didn’t.

But today’s conflict is a consequence of Brexit. The rebels today are pro-Europeanswho lost power after the Brexitiers’ victory, and today see the possibility of regaining power and party identity from the chaotic government of Boris.

The “civil war” in the Conservative Party between Eurosceptics and anti-Europeans has reignited, to the rhythm of Boris’ exuberance and lies during the COVID pandemic, the economic crisis and the 7.8 percent inflation.

But what most divides the one and the other is “The personality of the Prime Minister”, as Tory MP John Lamont said. It is their constituents who are asking them to vote against, according to their testimony.

after the jubilee

Boris learned that the confidence vote would come early Saturday afternoon when he was on his way to the Jubilee ceremonies and was called by Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee. At the time, 15% of the Conservative parliamentary party, at least 54 deputies, they wanted a leadership contest.

Boris asked for a quick vote, to “clean the air” and let it rule. Sir Graham agreed and they set everything up for Monday.

But Boris did not have time to defend himself until the end of the jubilee celebrations. For hours he must have sat in a box, in front of the Queen Victoria monument, together with the royals, watching the Jubilee concert, then the parade and finally, the queen cheered as she greeted from the balcony.

Within walking distance of him was his potential replacement, Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer. No one imagined that they had given him the worst news looking him in the face.

When the ceremony was over, Boris called his closest advisors to develop his survival strategy.. Among them was the Australian Sir Lynton Crosby, an expert in polls and electoral strategy. He reminded them that Boris had won his election himself with 14 million votes.

Theresa May Syndrome?

It only took one vote to win or lose this contest. But if she didn’t get two-thirds of support, she’d have former Prime Minister Theresa May syndrome, that he had to resignafter winning the vote of confidence.

But analysts believe the anti-Boris rebel MPs have gone too far, not waiting for this month’s local elections. Today it is Theresa May and her family who have Boris’ future in hand, beyond triumph.

Paddy Power bettors odds predicted Prime Minister Boris Johnson would remain in office, cscoring at 1/4 to win tonight’s vote.

The Irish bookmaker said there was a 4/11 chance that the prime minister would lose the no-confidence vote and a 4/9 chance that Johnson would not be the country’s leader in the next election. Which suggests that even a win tonight doesn’t, doesn’t ensure his future at number 10.

There is also a 1/3 chance that the Tory leader will face another vote of confidence before the next general election.

Support

Johnson tried to show he is doing his job today with his photos on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Britain will send long-range missiles to Ukraine.

In a letter to parliamentarians, who spent an hour signing by hand, he insisted: “With your support, I believe we have a great prize at hand tonight … We can get on with the work.” You took the time to ask your advisors: “Do I start with ‘Dear Theresa?’. It was he who overthrew Theresa May, his predecessor. Today she is the one who holds Boris’s future in her hands.

The prime minister received a limited push from a quick Opinium poll which showed that while voters generally want conservatives to kick him out, conservatives would prefer to keep it with a margin of 53 to 34 percent.

Cabinet ministers immediately joined, with Rishi Sunak pledging his support and Foreign Minister Liz Truss claiming to have their “100 percent support”. Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab and Michael Gove also supported him, while Jacob Rees-Mogg he suggested that a one-vote victory would suffice.

In a fierce response to Jeremy Hunt, a conservative who hopes to replace him, on social media, Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, a staunch supporter of Boris, said: “His handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster”. “His preparation for the pandemic for six years as health secretary has been poor and inadequate.”

“Your duplicity at this moment in destabilizing the party and the country to serve your personal ambitions is even more so. If you had been a leader, you would have handed the keys of number 10 to Corbyn.” You were wrong about almost everything. , now you’re wrong again, “he said.

Former cabinet minister David Davis warned Johnson’s problems “will not go away“if it had” anything less than a two-thirds majority “, even if it” will hold out “.

‘You will recall that after Theresa May won her first vote, actually moderately comfortable, she accepted that her time was limited. Her days were numbered and she would deliver several things before retiring. I don’t think it will happen with Boris. He will hold up, “predicted David Davis, former Brexit secretary.

The votes, the key

Another senior MP, who generally supported Johnson, explained the interpretation of the vote: more than 100 MPs who vote against him would be “very bad”arguing that more than 150 MPs on payroll are already discounted.

“He’ll win. But how much he wins is the most important. Less than 100 would be fine, anything more would be very bad. The payroll vote has to back it up, so people will consider whether he has a majority in the backbench.” “, forecasts.

The lawmaker also reminded darkly that other leaders, such as Theresa May, they hadn’t survived long, even after obtaining a vote of confidence. ‘These things never end well. Genius came out of the bottle, ‘they said.

Johnson’s former communications director Will Walden said he would be “kicked and screamed” outside 10 Downing St. But he warned that history shows that if a PM doesn’t register a “convincing” win, ” in the end you bleed to death. “

This drama is in chapters. If Boris Johnson is a “lame duck”, who could replace him at the helm if he resigns?

Foreign Affairs Select Committee Chairman Tom Tugendhat and former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt are favorites to replace Johnson as Conservative leader, with a 4/1 stake.