Leftist Gustavo Petro, an ally of Lula, is facing the vote, in a fierce debate with “Trump of Colombia” Rodolfo Hernández. Colombians go to the polls this Sunday (19) for an unprecedented change that could create a new model of government without traditional parties and a new economic model if the left wins.
Leftist Gustavo Petro, an ally of Lula, is facing the vote, in a fierce debate with “Trump of Colombia” Rodolfo Hernández. Colombians go to the polls this Sunday (19) for an unprecedented change that could create a new model of government without traditional parties and a new economic model if the left wins.
Márcio Resende, RFI correspondent in Buenos Aires
“It will be the first time in Colombia to have a real political alternation without the involvement of the hegemonic parties that have historically always ruled the country. The traditional political system did not allow alternative forces to come to power. This is changing now,” he said. RFI Jorge Cuervo is a political analyst and researcher at the University of Externado, Colombia.
Former guerrilla and former mayor of Bogotá (2012-2015), 62-year-old Gustavo Petro’s eventual victory would lead the left to the country’s first presidency. Lula’s victory in Brazil 20 years ago ushered in the era of leftist governments in the region, with the exception of Colombia.
“Colombia was left out of this wave. Being a left-wing politician here was easily associated with a guerrilla. Many thought that electing a left-wing candidate would be the way the guerrillas would take power. But it was after the peace deal. With the FARC, a left-wing candidate managed to get rid of this stain,” explains Jorge Cuervo.
peace deal with the FARC
The peace deal signed with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia in 2016 paradoxically opened the possibility of the left coming to power through democratic means, after 52 years of armed struggle.
However, a surprisingly unknown “black horse” has emerged, displacing traditional centre-right speeches by slurring, fighting corruption and “old politics”: Rodolfo Hernández (2016-2019), former mayor of Bucaramanga, in the country’s north-east , a medium-sized city close to the Venezuelan border.
Hernández, a 77-year-old conservative populist, robbed Gustavo Petro of the possibility of presenting himself as a representative of change, a strategy based on an eventual runoff against a representative of the traditional right.
Rodolfo Hernández’s speech is similar to that of Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 campaign, but the Colombian engineer comes from the business field where he made his fortune by building affordable housing.
“Rodolfo Hernández is a businessman who criticizes the growth of the State and the privileges of politics. He uses simple, vulgar and sexist language with a strong popular appeal. He has no ideological construction and does not seem to understand what is happening. Share in Colombia: the process of ending an armed conflict , the reinstitutionalization of the country, the social dissatisfaction with the large public demonstrations,” cautions Cuervo.
and Congress?
Carlos Sepúlveda, dean of the Faculty of Economics at the Colombian Universidad del Rosario, explains: RFI that all reforms and radical changes will have to go through Congress, controlled by traditional forces.
“There is a high degree of uncertainty about the commitments of the two candidates from an economic standpoint, but neither will come with absolute authority. The country is fragmented and they will have to reach major national agreements. Whoever wins will have a hard time. A consensus will need to be reached to impose an agenda”, considers Carlos Sepúlveda.
Voting intent polls show a technical tie. In the last three weeks, since the first round on May 29, polls point to a draw scenario with Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández leading.
The poll, released a week ago by consulting firm Invamer, shows Hernández as the winner, receiving 48.2% of the vote, just 1 point more than Gustavo Petro.
In a country where voting is not mandatory, Gustavo Petro won the first round with 40.3% of the vote, while Rodolfo Hernández got 28.1%.
The technical tie-up in this runoff shows that the majority of traditional right-wing voters chose Hernández not for himself, but because of his rejection of the left. “The success of Rodolfo Hernández is that he is not a Petro. This is more of an anti-Petro vote than a pro-Hernández vote. It’s a centre-right conservative vote,” says Jorge Cuervo.
No discussion and election environment
The election campaign in Colombia did not win the streets in this runoff, but it was fierce on social networks. Rodolfo Hernández, despite the age of 77, has been very active in the networks, but refuses to participate in the discussions. He claims that the format does not allow for idea development and argues that the discussions are a show of personal attack.
Many believe, in fact, that this is nothing more than an excuse for a candidate without offers or arguments to defend their ideas. Rodolfo Hernández did not hold rallies and even denounced that they had information that they wanted to stab him to death.
On Wednesday, 15th, the Bogotá High Court ordered the two candidates to debate at least once before the election. The next day, Rodolfo Hernández said he would comply with the injunction, but set a number of conditions, such as the issues to be discussed, who will present the discussion and where it will be broadcast. Gustavo Petro’s campaign team thinks these are time-wasting gimmicks to avoid confrontation.
Main offers
Gustavo Petro advocates for a new economic model based on social, environmental and gender equality. The reforms they propose are not aimed at reducing public spending or reducing the size of the state. Rather, they point to more spending on Health, Education and pensions. To this end, he proposes a tax reform that collects more from the rich.
Petro also supports the environment with energy alternatives and against the oil extraction model that creates the most money for Colombia.
Rodolfo Hernández is unknown. Nobody really knows what they want. The campaign speech revolves around the fight against corruption and austerity in the state, cutting spending and privileges such as embassies, chauffeurs, advisers and presidential flights.
The success of Hernández’s anti-corruption speech forced Petro to be creative: he proposed the creation of an “international commission of criminal investigations”.
“What differentiates the candidates is that Petro shows that he wants to move forward with structural reforms, the results of which will be evaluated by the market. Hernández focuses on the management of the effectiveness of the State”, comments Carlos Sepúlveda. “Candidate Petro advocates a pension reform that is financially worrisome in the long run. He has led his speech in recent weeks to include fiscal responsibility. Markets will closely monitor the structural reforms that Petro promises to make.” stresses the economist.
The two candidates agree on decriminalizing abortion, legalizing marijuana and re-establishing relations with Venezuela.
“Petro will engage with Venezuela for political-ideological reasons, and Hernández for more economic, pragmatic and border reasons. The difference is that Rodolfo Hernández needs to re-establish relations with Venezuela, but continues to recognize Juan Guaidó as interim president. continued. Guaidó is interim president. This is an important difference”, compares analyst Jorge Cuervo.
Parallels with Brazil
The profiles and visions of the two Colombian candidates parallel the polarized electoral conflict in Brazil. On the one hand, Gustavo Petro is a declared ally of Lula, who has already declared his support. Rodolfo Hernández doesn’t mention Bolsonaro, but he would have easily synced up with Brazilian president Hernández. Conservative rhetoric in behavior, in common with Bolsonaro, is against “old politics” and corruption.
At one point, Bolsonaro had to negotiate with the ‘old politics’ to govern. According to analyst Jorge Cuervo, Rodolfo Hernández must go through the same experience. Without representatives in Congress, it would need traditional politics to ensure manageability.
“If Rodolfo Hernández wins, he will align himself with Bolsonaro. A Petro victory serves to signal Lula that a progressive alliance with Gabriel Boric (Chile) and Petro can begin to be rebuilt in the region. If Hernández wins, this second wave rhetoric of the left cannot be used.” , concludes Jorge Cuervo.
source: Noticias
[author_name]
