China tries to avoid sanctions in the event of a confrontation with Taiwan

LONDON – Learning from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China is looking for ways to protect its economy from the threat of international sanctions in the event of a confrontation over Taiwan, “a hint” to Beijing’s vision of what the future holds. FBI Director Christopher Wray said Wednesday.

Western war sanctions and Russian retaliation have cost Western companies billions of dollars in Russia and could find themselves in a similar but much larger and more dangerous scenario if China invades Taiwan, Wray said.

China is trying to protect its economy against possible sanctions, “trying to protect itself from harm if they do something to provoke the anger of the international community,” he said.

“In our world, we call this type of behavior a track“.

Western companies are deeply involved in China, which is trying to make it difficult for foreign companies operating there to cooperate with international sanctions.

If China invades Taiwan, Wray said, US companies and their allies they would be trapped.

“As in Russia, Western investments accumulated over the years could become hostages, capital blocked, supply chains and relationships disrupted,” he said.

“Companies caught between sanctions and Chinese law that prohibits compliance with these sanctions. It’s not just geopolitics, it is business forecast“.

The comments came during a rare joint speech in London by Wray and Ken McCallum, director general of MI5the British Security Service, which warned of China’s threats to American, British and Western companies.

While the Biden administration has moderated some of the Trump administration’s efforts to counter Chinese espionage, Wray has continued to regularly talk about the threat posed by China by sending agents, making strategic investments, and launching cyber attacks intended to steal intellectual property and knowledge from overseas companies and universities.

In a question-and-answer session after the speech, Wray said the Chinese government is lobbying Western societies more than ever to not criticize Beijing or its policies, but declined to say whether an invasion of Taiwan had become more or less likely.

“I will say that I have no reason to think that their interest in Taiwan has diminished in any way,” he said.

“We certainly hope they are learning valuable lessons what happens when you overdo it the way the Russians clearly did in Ukraine.

Some US officials have argued that if a firm stance is not taken against Russia’s war on Ukraine, Beijing will be attempted take action against Taiwan.

During the Trump administration, Wray was one of a number of senior national security officials who delivered speeches portraying China as a growing threat.

But his latest comments come as the Biden administration focused on the immediate threat from Russia and its invasion of Ukraine and moved to change some of the Trump administration’s programs to counter China.

Earlier this year, the Justice Department modified a Trump-era initiative to combat Chinese espionage and faced many cases of academics who did not disclose Chinese ties or funding as civil violations, Not as crimes.

While some trials led to convictions, others led to acquittal or dismissal.

Officials in China presented the initiative as an example of hypocrisy and systemic discrimination of the United States against ethnic minorities.

On Wednesday, Wray largely avoided talking about Chinese efforts to seize intellectual property from American universities, instead focusing on ways Beijing uses cyber espionage and human resources to steal information and technology from Western companies and funnel it to competitors. Chinese.

“The Chinese government represents a even more serious threatfor Western companies than many sophisticated entrepreneurs believe, ”Wray said.

McCallum faced similar problems, but highlighted that China uses a patient approach, conducting coordinated influence campaigns that can last. decades.

“The most innovative challenge we face comes from the Communist Party of China,” McCallum said.

“He is covertly lobbying around the world. This It may sound abstract, but it’s real and compelling.“.

While US law enforcement and intelligence officials have been warning about the problem for years, it is a much more recent phenomenon for British security officials, who made little public comment on the Chinese threat until last year.

MI5 is conducting seven times more investigations into Chinese espionage than in 2018 and expects to double the current number in the coming years, McCallum said.

Beijing has strongly rejected US warnings of a Chinese threat, launching comments like politicians recycling old tropes from the Cold War era as part of a broader attempt to contain and repress the rise of China.

Chinese officials sought to portray the economic and trade ties between the United States and China as mutually beneficial, with a deputy foreign minister last November saying that among the most 70,000 US companies doing business in China, 97% were making a profit.

Wray said China poses a larger threat to Western politics and affairs.

Some US intelligence agencies have said that China is not seeking to sow chaos and dissent, or to largely disrupt the democratic process, as Russia did in the recent elections, but other officials say it is important not to see the actions of Chinese fashion. too tight.

Wray said Wednesday that many of China’s efforts take the form of malicious campaigns to influence US politics, political candidates and public opinion, rather than swaying the election.

But he also pointed to the recent case of Chinese government agents accused of attempting to influence a congressional run in New York by derailing the candidacy of a former Tiananmen Square protester.

In that case, federal prosecutors argue that China tried to produce a bogus controversy with a prostitute and then thought of arranging for the candidate to be hit by a vehicle.

That plot, Wray said, took the threat to another level.

Also on Wednesday, the US government’s Center for National Security and Counterintelligence issued a new warning to the government and business leaders about Chinese efforts to manipulate them to support “hidden agendas.”

Rejection

Chinese officials have questioned the notion that Beijing is trying to meddle in U.S. affairs, calling such allegations groundless and an attempt to use China as a scapegoat and a distraction from America’s internal problems.

Officials have stuck to the line China takes “non interference“in the internal affairs of sovereign countries, including elections, in principle.

Although neither Wray nor McCallum would directly compare the threat of Chinese influence to that of Russia, they both argued that Beijing worked.long termcultivating local officials for decades.

“It’s not always the case to try to influence a national leader or someone” at the cabinet level, McCallum said.

“They are willing to invest in training people at the local government level, potentially at the beginning of their political career. And I think that in itself illustrates the breadth and patience of this threat ».

Amy Qin contributed reports from Taipei, Taiwan.

c.2022 The New York Times Company